LDN Weekly – Issue 314 – 2 May 2024 – Countdown to the Counting

Dear Reader,

History is written by the victors, and who wins in this week’s race for City Hall will go some way to deciding how this election will be remembered. All elections have their own unique flavour – shaped by the candidates and characters involved, incidents (and gaffes!) during the campaign or by events beyond the control of the parties. The very first Mayoral contest saw independent Ken Livingstone take on all-comers and win, 2008’s titanic Ken v Boris Johnson tussle, Sadiq Khan’s win in 2016 in the face of a brutal campaign by his Tory opponent, and last time somewhat overshadowed by the final months of Covid lockdowns.

So how will 2024 be remembered? It’s fair to say, the election has hardly caught the imagination of Londoners – it hasn’t exploded to life and has been pretty much event-free. This isn’t all the fault of those involved, although to a degree some of the candidates will be quite happy with how things have unfolded.

The first reason for the campaign we’ve seen lies with the polls consistently predicting a handsome Khan victory. Many Londoners and commentators have, as a result, ‘banked’ a Labour win - including an Evening Standard endorsement for Sadiq Khan with the commentariat’s focus on other contests beyond the M25. Even the bookies have all but called it –  Khan at 1/50 with Paddy Power with Susan Hall back at 12/1.

With Khan’s poll leads, his campaign has no incentive to take unnecessary risks – safety first – perhaps partly explaining the reduced numbers of hustings he’s attended. But for Susan Hall, the opposite is true – with a difficult social media history to defend and some instances of gaffes during interviews, perhaps her campaign has deliberately kept her away from media and hustings. In addition, keeping a low profile could be part of her wider strategy of avoiding association with her unpopular party.

There’s a final point in all this – the 2024 Mayoral contest is pretty unique in that the imminent prospect of a General Election, at which there’s a good chance of a change of government, hangs over everything. It might be the case that the political parties have built infrastructure more designed for fighting a General Election and not a Mayoral, and are keen to not exhaust party activists before the main event. And with some of the biggest issues facing Londoners – cost of living, climate change, economic insecurity, crime, housing – not wholly or fully in the gift of mayors, the voters have one eye on the bigger contest later in the year where they feel these matters could be decided.

Returning to the point about history being written by the victors, it’ll be fascinating to see who sets the narrative in the coming days. Last time round, in 2021, before the Mayoral results had been declared, Labour had already lost a by-election in Hartlepool – which Keir Starmer admits to as his lowest point as leader. That defeat set the media tone for the following days, despite better results for Labour during the Friday and Saturday, including in the London mayoral contest. Most famously, back in 1990, Tory Chairman Kenneth Baker miraculously spun a terrible set of local election results after pointing to the holding of Wandsworth and Westminster councils.

A result in London that really defies the odds – whether that’s a Hall victory (leaving serious egg on the face of the pollsters) or even a close run thing – could set the narrative. But so far, most of the attention is on contests elsewhere – the Blackpool by-election (result expected early hours of Friday morning, likely Labour gain) and the Mayoral contests where the Conservative incumbents are battling to hold on. Might the West Midlands and Tees Valley – both likely to declare before London on Saturday afternoon - be 2024’s Wandsworth and Westminster? We’ll soon find out.

The Insight team will be carefully analysing the results in London and elsewhere over the coming days, so do look out for a special elections edition of LDN in your inboxes on Sunday.

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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LONDON POLITICS ROUNDUP

The final countdown: The Mayoral election is almost upon us and while the latest polls still place Sadiq Khan firmly in the lead, could it be that the contest is actually closer than expected? While yesterday’s YouGov poll gave the incumbent Mayor a 22-point lead over Conservative candidate Susan Hall, today’s Savanta's poll for Centre for London saw that gap narrow significantly to just ten points (with Khan on 42%, Hall 32%).

Endorsements: In addition to support from ‘friend’ Keir Starmer, Khan has been endorsed by over 80 of the capital’s business figures, as well as endorsement by the Evening Standard … even the backing of the Jedi, via Star Wars actor Mark Hamill.

Homing in: Khan has come out swinging on housing, saying he will ‘not hesitate’ to use his powers to intervene in Conservative boroughs which are failing to approve enough new homes after Labour published analysis showing on average 2,566 fewer homes completed in London Tory-controlled boroughs compared to their Labour counterparts since 2016.

Safety First: Crime has featured heavily in the final week of the campaign, thrust further into the spotlight after the horrific incident in Hainault. Home Secretary James Cleverly blasted Khan as ‘asleep at the wheel’ on policing and crime, while Policing Minister Chris Philp attributed increased crime rates in the capital to the fall in the use of stop and search powers on Khan’s watch. Even the Prime Minister waded into the Mayoral election debate, saying that rising knife crime rates in the capital show ‘the reality of Labour in power’. In response, the Mayor said that he has been dealing with a ‘legacy of cuts’ by Government to policing, youth clubs and after-school clubs.

Expectation management: Susan Hall’s campaign remains confident of winning over enough Londoners to beat Khan, dismissing the repeated poll leads for Khan as not reflective of the mood on the ground. Reports at the weekend included provocative claims that Conservative HQ has ‘given up on her’.

Toxicity manifest: An Observer and Greenpeace investigation found that Hall and seven Conservative MPs are members of private Facebook groups opposing the ULEZ, many of which also host comments containing Islamophobia, death threats, and conspiracy theories.

Hot air? Undeterred, Hall continued with her campaign’s focus on ULEZ by calling on Khan to issue an ‘amnesty’ for voters driving non-compliant vehicles to polling stations on Thursday. Hall also accused Khan of ‘plotting’ with Labour councils to bring in a pay-per-mile scheme, despite Khan repeatedly ruling it out, and laid into the hikes in council tax on Khan’s watch.

Hall Aboard: Hall gets the backing of former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who labels Hall as a ‘workaholic’ but as the send button for LDN is pressed, any Rishi Sunak endorsement equivalent to Starmer’s backing for Khan has yet to appear. Less welcome backing for Hall will be the organiser of the Action Against ULEZ campaign Nick Arlett who has ‘applauded’ the destruction of ULEZ cameras by groups known as ‘blade runners’ and has shared Islamophobic content online.

Greens and Yellows: Green candidate Zoë Garbett urged voters to ‘vote for what they believe in’ rather than be ‘scared’ into voting for Sadiq Khan. In the last few days, Garbett outlined her renters’ charter, with a call for the ability to freeze private rents in the capital for two years and establish a rent commission. Garbett has also made the eye-catching and bold pledge to make central London car-free by 2028. Lib Dem candidate Rob Blackie continues his campaign focus on policing and crime with an attack on Sadiq Khan for the sharp rise in armed shoplifting in the last year. Blackie also reiterated his demand for business rates to be scrapped and has called for a rats czar to help get to grips with the growing problem of infestations plaguing parts of the city.

Got any ID? New polling found that 5% of registered voters in the capital do not have the form of ID required to be able to vote. Becontree ward in Barking and Dagenham has the highest levels (at 11%) of voters without the correct ID with the lowest in Bloomsbury in Camden at 0.5%.

Brutally honest: City A.M. haven’t pulled their punches, publishing a candid take on the Mayoral election, saying that London has been ‘failed’ by the contest, criticising the Conservatives’ choice of candidate and calling for more powers for the Mayor.

Binface on a roll: with the latest YouGov polling showing Count Binface on 3%, might he achieve enough votes to keep his deposit? That would be a huge result for a candidate standing to inject levity into the campaign. Beyond the silliness, the novelty candidate (actually known as Jon Harvey) has cited the importance of democracy, social justice, and tackling homelessness as meaningful reasons to vote tomorrow.

• Southwark Council approved Hines’s plans to deliver a 44-storey office building at Blackfriars Road alongside two residential blocks of 22 and 40 storeys, comprising 433 homes (40.5% affordable). The 44-storey skyscraper will provide around 820,000 sq ft of office space plus 20,000 sq ft of affordable workspace for local businesses. The plans were amended in February after Historic England ‘strongly’ criticised the potential of the scheme to cause a ‘very serious level of harm’ to the adjacent Grade II-listed former Clay’s Printing Works and Christ Church.
  
  
• A joint venture between Ballymore and the London Legacy Development Corporation (LLDC) has submitted revised plans to develop four residential towers of 700 homes (35% affordable) on Stratford Waterfront. The previous proposals in 2019 for a 27-storey two-tower scheme were scaled down after criticism about the potential impact on views of St Paul’s Cathedral.
  
  
• Aldau Development has submitted revised plans to the Old Oak and Park Royal Development Corporation for a twin-tower residential development in north Acton. Previous plans, described as ‘Britain’s Trump Towers’ by Create Streets’ Director Nicholas Boys-Smith, included two towers of 45 and 55 storeys containing 702 homes (28% affordable) and a 160-bed hotel. The plans have been redesigned to incorporate a second staircase, delivering two buildings of 58 and 44 storeys with 699 homes (28% affordable) and a smaller 90-bedroom hotel.
  
  
• Tide has secured planning permission from Ealing Council to deliver its new 16-storey 412-bed purpose-built student accommodation scheme in West Ealing. The plans include demolition of the retail units on site and delivery of 35% affordable student spaces, which entitled the plans to a ‘fast-track’ planning process.
  
  
• Criterion Capital has unveiled plans to deliver four new 12 to 14-storey residential towers in Dalston, situated on the site of a Matalan store. The development would deliver 257 new homes (35% affordable) and include 4,461 sqm of open public space to connect the building to Dalston High Street and Kingsland shopping centre. Previous plans for the site included the delivery of four towers of nine to 17-storeys before their submission to Hackney Council was delayed due to the developer undertaking a further consultation.
  
  
• Hurlington Capital has secured planning consent from Lewisham Council for plans to deliver a 484-bed purpose-built student accommodation scheme in Deptford. The plans include 42 affordable homes and 19,000 sq ft of creative workspace. The developer is reported to be seeking a joint venture partner to deliver the scheme, funded in partnership with Melrose Capital.
  
  
• Stoford Developments and ICG Real Estate have secured planning permission from Bexley Council for a new 320,000 sq ft urban logistics scheme in Crayford. The development comprises three net zero carbon warehouse facilities on a 12.2 acre site in the centre of the Dartford Industrial Zone, powered by rooftop solar panels and a rainwater harvesting system.

• Former Strategic Director of the Built Environment at Westminster City Council and Historic England Commissioner, Rosemarie MacQueen, has died. MacQueen worked in Westminster’s planning and regeneration departments for nearly 40 years, before her retirement in 2014.
  
  
• Catherine Woodhead has been appointed Chief Executive at the charity Living Streets, joining in August from Muscular Dystrophy UK.
  
  
• Former Conservative member of the Greater London Council and Westminster City Council, Baroness Gardner of Parkes, has died aged 96. Gardner was a local government representative in London for over two decades.
  
  
• Group Chief Executive of HSBC, Noel Quinn, has announced his retirement after five years leading Europe’s largest bank.
  
  
• Sellar has appointed Flan McNamara as their new Construction Director, six years after he departed the firm to join Osborne + Co. McNamara will take on Sellar’s projects at 60 Gracechurch Street and the proposed redevelopment of Liverpool Street Station.
  
  
• Great Portland Estates has appointed Felicity Rooke as its new Head of Workspaces Design and Delivery, alongside Chris Stokes who is joining as Head of Customer Experience for Flex Workspaces.
  
  
• Leasing Director at JLL, Lillian Chandler is standing down after 25 years leading in the consultancy’s City and West End agencies.

• Former England cricketer Monty Panesar is to stand for George Galloway's Workers Party in Ealing Southall, where veteran Labour MP Virendra Sharma holds a 16,000-vote majority. Panesar previously endorsed Conservative Zac Goldsmith in the 2016 Mayoral election and has previously wanted to become Mayor of London or Prime Minister.
  
  
• Labour list candidate for the London Assembly, Devina Paul, has been selected as the party’s candidate for Hamble Valley.

Geography: In our final look at some of the London Assembly battlegrounds, we turn to the contest in the super constituency of Havering & Redbridge. 

History: Every contest to date has seen a Conservative Assembly Member elected and, with the exception of Ken Livingstone in 2000, has voted for Tory candidates for Mayor.

A tale of two boroughs: Local politics has seen considerable change in recent years. Labour won a majority in 2014 on Redbridge council for the first time – cementing control in 2018 and 2022, leaving the Tories with just five councillors. Havering ploughs its own furrow, with long periods of no party having overall control. In 2022, the Havering Residents Association – in coalition with Labour – took control from a Conservative coalition.

Politics: Keith Prince is the sitting Tory Assembly Member (defending a majority of 15,327), first elected in 2016 and standing again this time. He faces Guy Williams (Labour), Kim Arrowsmith (Greens), Fraser Coppin (Lib Dems), Andy Walker (TUSC), Alex Wilson (Reform) and Mohammed Asif (Independent).

From the right: The Assembly seat has been marginal when the political right is fractured – most notably 2012 (Tory majority of 3,939 - strong showings by UKIP, BNP, English Democrats), 2016 (Tory majority of 1,438 – strong showing by UKIP). With Reform polling strongly nationally, and with Havering likely to be where they’ll be keen to do well, could this eat into the Tory vote and let Labour through the middle?

The spectre of ULEZ: Or will the unpopularity of Khan’s ULEZ expansion in outer London drag down Labour’s vote?

Starmer’s reach: Recent polling suggests Labour could do well in this part of London at a General Election.  A recent MRP poll predicted the staunchly Tory held seats of Romford (majority 17,893) and Hornchurch & Upminster (majority 23,308) could fall to Labour. In a second poll, the Tories did marginally better – losing Romford but holding Hornchurch & Upminster.

What to watch: The Tory and Labour Mayoral candidates share of the votes versus how their parties fare in the Assembly election. Hall has, to date, done a good job in supressing the Reform vote in the Mayoral contest with her Reform-lite policy offer. For Keith Prince to hold on, he will hope to mirror Hall’s performance and squeeze Reform. For Khan, this is a part of London where he could struggle to match his own party’s popularity. 

WE RECOMMEND

• London Zoo’s appeal for memories and memorabilia to mark its 200^th anniversary in 2026.
• The Times’ take on whether our museums and galleries will be able to remain free to visitors.
• How ticket touts are now focusing their efforts on London’s most popular restaurants.
• The Standard’s list of the best restaurants in Soho.
• London is officially the world’s most popular place to work.
• Why the Tories need to learn to love London again.
• The Standard’s full guide to the Mayoral candidates and their policies.

RELATED ARGENT APPOINTMENT

Longstanding LCA client Related Argent, one of the UK’s largest privately-owned property and urban regeneration businesses, has announced the appointment of former Cushman & Wakefield Global CEO and President John Forrester as Strategic Advisor to the board. Oli Rifkind has also been promoted to Executive Director for Investment. The news comes as Argent LLP has ceased operating and all staff, assets and projects have been transferred to Related Argent. The LCA team secured coverage of the announcement in publications including React News, Property Week, CoStar, Housing Today, BE News, and Building.

BALANCING THE NEED FOR RETROFIT - FROM A PLANNER'S PERSPECTIVE

LCA client Avison Young is featured in this week’s Building – Laura Jenkinson, Principal in the Planning Team, provides her insight into the challenges of building retention and what the next government can do to improve the current system. In the piece, Laura outlines her key recommendations to planners and policy makers in London to tackle the issue. Read the full piece here.

ACHIEVING WITH EALING

This week we were delighted to host Councillor Peter Mason, Leader of the London Borough of Ealing, in our latest series of Breakfast Waffle events with London council leaders. Cllr Mason spoke openly on the council’s ambitious plans to tackle the housing, cost of living and climate crises head on – and how LCA’s clients and associates can get involved. Each month, we bring the shapers and makers across our sector to our Breakfast Waffle series. Interested in attending future events? Get in touch marketing@londoncommunications.co.uk

CHANGE OF DATE

Due to National Rail industrial action, the Creative Industries Property Summit (CIPS) has now been rescheduled to Wednesday 26 June at King's Place, London. As Communications Partners, we are proud to announce that most of the incredible speakers are still in attendance for the new date! And more importantly, this extension of time allows for more to join us in this influential one-day conference where we bring the Real Estate and the Creative industries together - book your tickets now and use the discount code LCA0705 to get tickets at members rate.

LCA ELECTIONS BRIEFING

Last week, LCA hosted a pre-election webinar with our Managing Director of Insight Nick Bowes presenting on the latest polling and policy pledges ahead of the Mayoral election, as well as looking ahead to the General Election. If you are interested in attending any of our future events, please get in touch using marketing@londoncommunications.co.uk

FUTURE LONDON CONFERENCE

LCA are excited to be supporting BusinessLDN’s Future London Conference, taking place on the 13 June at 30 Euston Square, London. The event sees more than 200 senior business leaders come together to explore the London of tomorrow, and how the city can work for and with the rest of the UK to drive growth.

As a supporter, we’re delighted to offer our networks a discounted rate to attend. Just enter the code LCA100 to claim your £100 off!

To find out more and to secure your place, just visit BusinessLDN’s events page and select to book as a ‘non-member’.

RACE FOR CITY HALL BLOG SERIES

As the London Mayoral election campaign draws to a close, LCA’s Race for City Hall blog series has captured key policy battlegrounds in the built environment which the next Mayor of London will be faced with after polling day. You can read through the series on our website, as well as our latest blogs below.

• Chief Executive Jonny Popper gives a detailed look into the built environment offers in Labour and Conservative manifestos.
• LCA Director Izzy Finn makes the case for the next Mayor to galvanise good development and planning in London’s built environment.
• Associate Director Phoebe Gardiner sets out the role of arts and culture in Londoners’ pick for the next Mayor.
• With ULEZ remaining a major debate for the campaign, Senior Account Manager Fiorella Lanni discusses how air quality is shaping the capital’s politics.

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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