LDN Weekly – Issue 315 – 5 May 2024 – LDN Mayoral Election Special: Khan Makes History

KHAN MAKES HISTORY

Dear Reader,

In this special election edition of LDN, we cover the results of the London Mayoral and Assembly elections, plus we bring you the results from the council by-elections across the city. We also look ahead at what a Sadiq Khan third term might mean for London and the challenges that he will face.

With many elections beyond the M25, we also bring you the latest on the other Mayoral contests, the local council and Police & Crime Commissioner elections, plus the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election. We hope you find this informative and insightful.

An Election of Firsts

Last week’s Mayoral and London Assembly elections saw a number of firsts. The first time voters didn’t have two choices for Mayor. The first time votes have been counted by hand, rather than by machines. And the first contest coordinated from the new City Hall in the Royal Docks. The other first saw Sadiq Khan become the first Mayor to win a third term. On behalf of everyone at LCA, I congratulate Khan on his historic victory. As well as winning a third term, this was the second largest (based on vote share) win in the history of the mayoralty, with Khan increasing his share of the vote (up from 40% to 43.8%) and margin of victory (11.1 point gap, versus 4.7 in 2021). Khan also saw swings in his favour across the city – in both inner and outer London. 

No Love Lost

It was shortly after 4.30pm yesterday when the final result was declared. Britain First’s candidate took the opportunity to create a scene, interrupting the first words of Khan’s victory speech - perhaps out of frustration at being beaten by Count Binface. As well as the clear emotion in Khan’s speech, as he talked about the threats he’s faced and the burden on his family, the other takeaway was the clear mutual dislike between the Tory and Labour Mayoral candidates. This contrasted with the cordiality of the winning and concession speeches in the West Midlands contest. With Hall’s re-election to the Assembly, the battle isn’t over yet.  

A historic third term

Khan securing a third term in office is a remarkable achievement, keeping up his winning streak in elections that stretches back to his school days. Fears that the famed London Labour Party campaign machine wasn’t firing on all cylinders look unfounded. The strong messaging to Green and Lib Dem voters looks to have cut through.

Khan strengthened Labour’s hold on inner London, coming out tops in the West Central seat for the first time and winning in the South West - a new first for a Labour Mayoral candidate. Unlike in other parts of the country like Oldham, Kirklees and Manchester, the feared slump in support for Labour in Muslim communities following events in the Middle East failed to materialise - in the key City & East seat, Khan saw an 8% swing in his favour. Coming out early and clearly for a ceasefire in Gaza - plus many years of hard work on community relations - clearly bore fruit for Khan, and is a lesson for Labour nationally.

Hall Deflated

Friday’s turnout figures, with increases in the numbers voting in Tory strongholds and with falls in Labour’s heartlands, contributed to last-minute speculation that the contest might end up being closer than many expected. Hall’s confidence will have evaporated after the first couple of results when it became clear that the Tory vote had slumped in inner London and there was no sign of the sharp increases Hall needed in outer London to get anywhere near winning. Hall’s vote share (32.7%) was the lowest for a Tory candidate in twenty years - below that of 2021 candidate Shaun Bailey’s 35.3% first round vote. Tellingly, only in Hall’s home patch of Brent & Harrow was there a swing in her favour. 

That being said, Hall did outperform her own party’s national polling in London. Over recent months, a string of polls saw the Tories in the high teens in London, yet Hall captured a third of the vote last Thursday. There will be more analysis in the coming weeks to what explains this - already some in the Tory ranks have suggested that with stronger backing by her own side (or with a different candidate altogether), they might have even won. 

Khan rated Hall’s chances of victory higher than her own party 

It was telling how little support Hall received during the campaign from senior Tory figures, with the Prime Minister barely seen or heard from. On occasions it felt like Khan’s camp had more confidence in Hall’s chance of victory than Rishi Sunak and the Tory Party high command. It was notable how Sunak would not say if he had cast his vote in her favour - only once it was clear she was going to lose did No 10 reveal that the Prime Minister hadn’t voted for her, instead using his ballot in North Yorkshire. 

ULEZ - the dog that didn’t bark

Hall made cancelling the expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) her signature policy, yet the results suggest that it wasn’t quite the game changer she and others thought it would be. While Hall (as expected) beat Khan in Croydon & Sutton, Havering & Redbridge, Bexley & Bromley and Ealing & Hillingdon, she didn’t pile on the extra votes needed to win the overall contest. In fact, it was Khan who increased his share of the vote relative to Hall. Most revealing was Ealing & Hillingdon swinging in Khan’s favour - particularly symbolic, given last summer’s Uxbridge by-election where ULEZ was successfully weaponised by the Tories. Thursday’s results would certainly appear to suggest that ULEZ is no longer of significant electoral importance.  

Rise of tactical voting

The shift to the first past the post voting system was widely seen as likely to increase the Conservative Party’s chances of winning. But it looks like this has backfired - Khan successfully squeezed the Green and Lib Dem votes (both down on 2021). Most strikingly, while the Lib Dems captured their first ever Assembly seat in south-west London, the same constituency saw Khan came out top in the Mayoral race (the first time ever Labour won this area). Turns out the voters are quite savvy after all. 

Tory misery in inner London

With Labour’s success in the West Central constituency (which includes the boroughs of Westminster and Kensington & Chelsea), Tory misery in inner London continues. It’ll take a while to fully analyse the data, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Susan Hall hovers around 20% of the vote in inner London. Tory Assembly candidates came third behind Labour and the Greens in Greenwich & Lewisham and Southwark & Lambeth, and fourth behind the Lib Dems in North East. 

Death of the Donut, rise of the Hot Cross Bun

Mayoral contests love to talk about the so-called donut effect, but yesterday’s result could kill off the donut forever. With the Labour vote on the rise across the city, Khan winning in South-West London, Camden & Barnet, North East London and Enfield & Haringey, and swings in his favour in Havering & Redbridge, Croydon & Sutton and Ealing & Hillingdon might a more befitting pastry analogy be the hot cross bun, with a red cross, three blue corners and one yellow? 

We’re really grateful for the extra help from Tony Travers with this election special.

The Insight team will be drilling down into the data over the coming weeks, and we’ll bring you the latest with Khan’s team as he settles into his historic third term.

There won’t be an LDN this coming Wednesday, and we’ll revert to the usual schedule from 15th May.

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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MAYORAL ELECTION RESULTS

Another term: Sadiq Khan has secured a historic third term as Mayor of London, securing 1,088,225 votes (43.8% of the vote) to his Conservative rival Susan Hall’s 812,397 votes (32.7%). The Lib Dems and Greens placed third and fourth respectively - though there were only 70 votes in it, with Lib Dem Rob Blackie securing 145,184 votes (5.8%) and the Greens’ Zoe Garbett receiving 145,114 (5.8%). This is the first time since 2008 that the Lib Dems finished above the Greens.

Responding to his win, Khan said: “It’s the honour of my life to serve the city that I love and I’m beyond humbled right now. I want to express my deep gratitude to my fellow Londoners and make this pledge to you: I promise to repay the trust you’ve placed in me by working tirelessly to deliver the fairer, safer and greener London you deserve”. 

In her concession speech, Hall said:
“I will continue to hold Sadiq to account, to stand up for hard-working families, for motorists and for women. I love London, and I urge Sadiq to try harder to make it better, for all our sakes.”

The debate continues: While it is a resounding win for Sadiq Khan, which most will have predicted, the final result was actually much closer than many of the pollsters had projected. The selection of Susan Hall as the Conservatives’ candidate for the election has been and will continue to be a topic of conversation. Former Minister for London Paul Scully, who unsuccessfully sought the candidacy, wasted no time in hitting the airwaves, accusing his party of running an ‘incredibly underwhelming campaign’ and that the Conservatives had ‘gifted’ Khan a third term.

MAYORAL VOTE BY CONSTITUENCY

2024 Mayoral election - Winners by Super Constituency

LONDON ASSEMBLY RESULTS

In addition to voting for the Mayor, voters in the capital also elected 25 members of the London Assembly. Overall, the Conservatives lost a seat while Reform UK gained one, leaving the new makeup of the Assembly as: Labour 11, Conservatives 8, Green 3, Lib Dem 2 and Reform UK 1. 

The Assembly is made up of 14 members elected by super-constituencies and 11 members elected via a proportionate top up list (modified D’Hondt system anyone?). The Conservatives lost two of their long-held super-constituencies, with Leader of Richmond Council Gareth Roberts elected as the first ever Lib Dem Assembly Member for the South West super-constituency (which means a likely change at the top at Richmond Council). As expected, Labour also captured the West Central seat for the first time from the Conservatives’ Tony Devenish.

2024 London Assembly Members - Map of Super Constituencies

The Tories partly made up for the loss of their two constituency members by picking up an extra member via the Londonwide list system. Defeated Mayoral candidate Susan Hall is also returned to the Assembly, promising a further four years of fiery clashes with Khan. With Reform UK picking up enough Londonwide votes, the party also bags their first Assembly member. 

With the election of the new Assembly, it is unlikely that Khan will face problems getting his budget approved. Labour holding 11/25 seats is an obstacle to the opposition securing the required two-thirds majority needed to amend a Mayor’s budget.

POLITICAL & INDUSTRY REACTION

• Labour Leader Keir Starmer congratulated his “friend” Khan, saying that “Londoners have voted for delivery over headlines, hope over fear, and unity over division”.
  
  
• Chair of London Councils, Cllr Georgia Gould said: “Boroughs are determined to help create a fairer, greener and more prosperous future for Londoners. We look forward to continuing working with the Mayor and national government to deliver our priorities.” 
  
  
• Welcoming Khan’s re-election, BusinessLDN said that “the private sector stands ready to help deliver his ambitious manifesto commitments so that people and firms across the capital can reach their full potential”
  
  
• Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo said on Instagram: “Dear Sadiq, congratulations for your re-election! Your leadership and commitment to social justice, green policies and progressive values are inspiring us all. Paris and London united for a better future!”
  
  
• Also congratulating Khan was former Mayor of New York City Mike Bloomberg, who credited Khan with making “London safer, healthier, more inclusive and more prosperous.” 

WERE THE POLLS RIGHT?

The opinion polls were consistently right in saying that Sadiq would win, and by double figures. Yet over the course of the campaign, the polls have varied enormously.

While early polling in Summer 2023 suggested that the contest was shaping up to be close, by November a gap had opened up between Hall and Khan of around 20 and 25 percentage points. Through the winter and spring of 2024, the polls continued to record double-digit leads for Khan, with leads also in outer as well as inner London. While in the final weeks, Hall regained some ground, even in the final days Khan remained odds on to win – albeit there was variation between the pollsters.

Below are six of the final poll leads for Khan in the run up to 2 May. Expectation management, speculation and anonymous briefings during the final days did fuel rumours that the contest was going to be close, or perhaps even a win for Susan Hall. With the final result an 11 point margin of victory for Khan, Savanta/Centre for London’s poll on 1 May looks like the most accurate – it correctly gave Hall over 30% of the vote.

While London is a difficult region to poll given the demographic diversity of the city, there will need to be some reflection by the polling companies about how they improve their accuracy. The big variations in the final weeks cannot be dismissed as falling within the margin of error.

Khan’s team will now be catching up on some well-earned sleep and making the most of the bonus Bank Holiday. Expect during this coming week (re-)appointments of Deputy Mayors (including key posts across planning, housing, transport and policing) and other key figures, meetings with the Metropolitan Police, Fire and Transport Commissioners. Khan may decide to rearrange the portfolios of his Deputy Mayors and we may even see some new faces, given some have served continually for eight years in the same positions. Khan should expect to receive a call from the Prime Minister as is the convention – oh to be a fly on the wall for that conversation.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Khan stood on the promise of making the capital ‘fairer, safer and greener’, but what does this mean in practice? 

His headline pledges were:

• Make universal free school meals permanent 
• Freeze Transport for London fares until at least 2025 
• Build 40,000 new council homes 
• Recruit 1,300 additional police officers
• Invest in youth clubs
• Tackle violence against women and girls 
• End rough sleeping by 2030
• Provide support for renters, including the delivery of new affordable ‘rent control homes’
• Continue to tackle air pollution and the climate crisis 
• Delivery a London Growth Plan, including the creation of over 150,000 new jobs by 2028

What about the built environment? 

We should expect more of the same from Khan – a strong political focus on building affordable and council homes. Other highlights in Khan’s manifesto include:

• Housebuilding - Build 40,000 new council homes by the end of the decade.
• Development Corporations - Create new Land Assembly Zones and Mayoral Development Corporations to deliver new communities and homes.
• London Plan - Work with a Labour government to strengthen planning so that the London Plan can go even further in supporting the delivery of affordable housing, unlocking economic growth and being the greenest ever plan.
• City Hall Developer - An expanded City Hall developer to deliver more affordable housing.
• Places for London - Take steps to integrate the new City Hall developer with Places for London to accelerate the delivery of affordable homes.
• Rent Control Homes - Provide more support for renters, including a new Rent Control Homes programme which will in its first phase see 6,000 homes delivered that have their rents capped and linked to the incomes of key workers, in the areas where they are needed the most.  
• Social housing conditions - Work with boroughs to expand the use of technology to solve problems, such as sensors to detect damp and mould, and enforce against fly tipping and pollution.

NORMAL SERVICE RESUMED

Khan’s third term could be characterised by two very different periods. With a further six months of before a General Election, expect conflict and locking of horns between Khan and Tory ministers to continue for some time soon. It is unlikely that his refreshed mandate will suddenly be respected - the performative party politicking we’ve seen, particularly on housing and planning, is likely to continue until the General Election. Expect a lot more heat, and not much light. How Khan responds will be fascinating - might he point to his renewed (and increased) mandate and contrast it with the decaying remnants of a government the polls suggest will be gone by the end of the year? One to watch.

THE KHAN AND STARMER SHOW

The second period, if polls are right, would see Khan be Mayor for the first time with a Labour government in Westminster. How he works with a potential future Labour government is going to be fascinating to watch. We’ve seen the closeness in the campaign between Khan and Keir Starmer, which bodes well and we can hope this friendship is the scaffolding that sustains a constructive relationship between a Labour government and London’s Labour Mayor, as well as councils, even through difficult times.

One thing is for sure, it won’t all be plain sailing. The spending taps won’t suddenly be turned on. Any extra public spending won’t see London as a priority. There are policy differences between Khan and Starmer - notably on Brexit, Green Belt, rent controls - but we can expect disagreements to be more behind closed doors and managed cordially. With at least 19 manifesto commitments written in a way that delivery depends on Labour winning the next election, a lot of Khan’s priorities in this term depend on that cordiality. LCA’s Insight Team will be revisiting this in the coming months.

THE GENERAL ELECTION

Attention is now going to turn very quickly to the General Election, expected later in the Autumn. There’ll be much poring over the results of this latest set of elections for clues as to where public sentiment lies and what it means in key Westminster battlegrounds. Here in London, the Mayoral contest confirms that inner London looks very tricky for the Tories - the chances of them left with no MPs at all look pretty high. But even in outer London Labour will remain confident of capturing marginals like Hendon, Chipping Barnet, Chingford and Woodford Green.

Keir Starmer needs a swing at the General Election of 12.7% just to gain a majority of one – but last week’s results point towards a much lower swing. This has led to growing chatter in the last few days that we could be heading for a hung parliament.

SEVEN ELECTIONS AND COUNTING
The view from LCA Partner and Senior Advisor, Robert Gordon Clark

I have had the pleasure of covering all seven GLA elections and the privilege of being allowed to attend the count for five of them, including yesterday’s at the new City Hall. Some things haven’t changed – the excitement of results day; spending time with old friends like Tim Donovan, Simon Harris, Ross Lydall, Susana Mendonca and, of course, Professor Tony Travers of the LSE; and gossiping with politicians and advisors about what the results might mean for their parties and for them personally.

But some things do change – Nick joining us for the first time, the pleasure of meeting political reporters like Aletha Adu (Guardian) and Rafe Uddin (Financial Times) and three very engaged student journalists who were covering their first GLA elections; the change in the voting system (which made things quicker for sure); and most notably the 24 hour delay in the vote counting.

This last decision, whilst ensuring the main result was more or less declared when predicted (around 5pm on Saturday), created an unseemly 24 hour vacuum which was filled on social media by “rumours” and “speculation” that not only could the Mayoral result be “very close”, but that some (mainly I suspect Tory HQ apparatchiks) were predicting a win for Susan Hall. Speaking to a few commentators I made two simple points. First, if this rumour was correct, then the polling system in London was bust (which it clearly is not); and second that there was simply no evidence, other than perhaps some rumours that postal voting might be in favour of Hall (which is no real surprise). For me and many others it was simply an attempt to distract from the national picture where the Tories were losing close to 500 seats.

And by the time the third super-constituency was called showing a third Conservative to Labour swing, Tony Travers and I quietly called it for Khan. I even went so far as to bet my friends in the media £5 that there would be a swing from Con to Lab in all 14 super-constituencies – something I would not have dreamt of that morning. Only one journalist was brave (or naïve?) enough to take me on. I was wrong (and I owe her £4.99 as I only had one penny in my pocket). But no less than 12/14 saw a Con to Lab swing, with only Brent and Harrow swinging Labour to Conservative. And the other one? Tory heartland of Bromley and Bexley saw no swing at all.

Big thanks to the team at London Elects and to Nick, Emily and Dan who have compiled this super report for your bank holiday consumption – this analysis, unlike the speculation on Friday, is reliable!

Robert Gordon Clark

LONDON COUNCIL BY-ELECTION RESULTS

There were only three changes in the 15 council by-elections that also took place on Thursday. The Conservatives took seats from Labour in Wandsworth (West Putney) and Sutton (St Helier West). Labour won a seat from independents in Hounslow’s Brentford West ward. 

BEYOND THE M25

METRO MAYORS

All the Metro Mayors bar Tees Valley are now in Labour’s hands - with the party winning the three new contests, including in Rishi Sunak’s backyard of North Yorkshire and York. Labour’s Richard Parker won by a whisker in the West Midlands, with incumbent Tory Andy Street defeated - Street’s ability to hold on was widely seen as key for the overall Tory narrative of these elections.  

COUNCIL ELECTIONS

As for the local council elections, it was a bad day for the Conservatives, losing 474 seats (albeit slightly less than the projected 500 losses). Labour, Lib Dems, Greens and a whole host of independent candidates benefitted, picking up councillors across England.

Labour gained control of key bellwether councils including Redditch, Milton Keynes and Nuneaton & Bedworth, perhaps providing some reassurance about their fate at the next General Election. However, the loss of a council like Oldham has raised concerns about Labour’s position on Gaza and the impact this is having on how Muslim communities are voting.  

Changes:

• Labour have won Redditch Borough Council, Rushmoor Borough Council, Adur District Council and Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Council from the Conservatives.
• Labour have also won Hartlepool Borough Council, Thurrock Council, Norwich City Council, Hyndburn Borough Council, Cannock Chase District Council, Tamworth Borough Council and Milton Keynes Council from No Overall Control (NOC).
• Labour lost control of Oldham Metropolitan Borough Council and Kirklees Council to NOC.
• The Conservatives lost North East Lincolnshire Council, Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council, Gloucester City Council, Havant Borough Council and Basildon Borough Council to NOC.
• The Lib Dems gained Dorset Council from the Conservatives and Tunbridge Wells Borough Council from NOC.
• The People’s Independent Party gained Castle Point Borough Council from NOC.

Headlines:

• Redditch - seen as a bellwether seat, the Council has been Conservative-controlled since 2018. Labour secured a comfortable majority on the council, winning 21 of 27 seats.
• Hartlepool - three years after a disappointing parliamentary by-election result for the party, Labour won nine of the 12 seats being contested, with the Conservatives losing six.
• Rushmoor and Adur - Labour has gained control of these local authorities for the first time.
• Milton Keynes – Labour regained the Council for the first time in 24 years. The Council has been under NOC since 2006.
• Oldham - Labour has lost control of the council which it had controlled since 2011. Independent candidates won seven seats, with the Labour Party’s stance on Gaza thought to be a deciding factor for many voters.
• Harlow - the Conservatives have retained control of Harlow Council by just one seat.
• Tamworth - Labour took nine of the 10 seats up for election, taking control of the borough for the first time in 21 years.
• Dorset - the Liberal Democrats won just enough seats to hold a majority on Dorset Council, taking control from the Conservatives for the first time in 25 years.
• Tunbridge Wells – the Lib Dems have taken overall control of the local authority for the first time since 1996.
• Hastings - the coastal town remains in NOC but the Greens have moved from the fourth largest party to hold the most seats in the borough.

POLICE & CRIME COMMISSIONERS

With two results remaining, Labour has made ten gains from the Conservatives – Avon & Somerset, Bedfordshire, Cheshire, Cleveland, Cumbria, Derbyshire, Lancashire, Norfolk, Northumbria and Nottinghamshire. The Conservatives have retained Cambridgeshire, Devon & Cornwall, Dorset, Essex, Gloucestershire, Hampshire, Hertfordshire, Humberside, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Staffordshire, Suffolk, Surrey, Thames Valley, Warwickshire, West Mercia and Wiltshire. Labour have retained the West Midlands, Northumbria, Merseyside and Durham.

PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION - BLACKPOOL SOUTH

Labour also captured the former Conservative seat of Blackpool South in a by-election triggered by the resignation of former MP, Scott Benton. Labour’s Chris Webb overturned a Tory majority in 2019 of 3,690 to win by 7,607 votes. The Tory candidate narrowly held off Reform for second place.

The constituency was held by Labour from 1997-2019 and is a key seat if Labour is to win the next General Election.

The swing to Labour - 26.3% - is the third largest in a by-election since 1945, and the fifth by-election swing to Labour over 20% in the last year.

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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