LDN Weekly – Issue 323 – 3 July 2024 – Time for the People to Decide

TIME FOR THE PEOPLE TO DECIDE

Dear Reader,

It’s six weeks since Rishi Sunak first stepped out of the famous door of 10 Downing Street to fire the starting pistol on a General Election campaign that, frankly, felt like it had already been in full swing for some months – if not years. Now there’s just over twelve hours until the polls open.

For some time, national politics has been frozen in aspic. Even the opinion polls have barely budged in two years. This government’s measure of success has been surviving the day, with little capacity to think medium let along long-term. This was despite the challenges the country has faced piling up and worsening. This holding pattern has left many voters and business leaders frustrated. It’s little wonder the change message adopted by Labour has resonated so well on the doorstep. We could hardly go on as we were.

In today’s LDN we bring you what the final polls are saying might happen in London. Of course, until all the votes are counted, we don’t know for sure. But universally the pollsters are predicting a grim night in the capital for the Tories. At best, they’ll be left with a handful of seats – at worst, possibly none at all. For the Conservative and Unionist Party to be all but extinct in the capital city would be embarrassing. Historical reminder - until 1997, Labour were second to the Tories in London and in 1987, 57 of the city’s MPs were Conservative.

That London has turned ever redder over the last decade isn’t totally unsurprising – the blues have been in power nationally for 14 years, governments gradually become more unpopular, losing local councillors in mid-term elections. Should Labour win tomorrow the same will likely happen to them – the next London local elections in 2026 seeing the Tories make up lost ground.

But there’s more at play which will need some hard thinking by the Conservatives. London and the Tory Party’s values have gone in different directions – perhaps it started before Brexit, but it has certainly accelerated since. And compounding their woes, the Conservatives have at times revelled in demonising London, Londoners, London’s politicians and London’s values. Little wonder the voters look like rejecting them. Some aren’t even waiting for the votes to be counted to start the post mortem.

The Conservatives, keen to portray Labour as an out of touch, North London obsessed clique, may well point to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, representing a constituency in Camden, as the ultimate evidence. Starmer would be the seventh (out of 17) Prime Ministers to be a London MP since 1945 but the last five were all Conservatives. With potentially so few Tory MPs left after Friday, it might be a while until it gets to six.

Yet, in other ways, London has barely featured in the campaign. Neither party leader has spent much time campaigning here. Labour has deployed coachloads of activists from their inner London strongholds into target seats in outer London and across the south-east. Nor did it feature much in the manifestos, with the Conservative Party’s mentions as much about disparaging Sadiq Khan as offering anything positive.

But when the rubber hits the road in the coming weeks, the city will gain significance really rather quickly. In their desire to get the economy growing – and growing quickly – should Labour win, they’ll realise that in the short term this comes from London. To do this, ministers will likely be working on a shopping list of interventions and quick decisions to unlock development and green light schemes. The political alignment of a Labour Government, Labour-led London Councils and a London Mayor – last seen in May 2006 – could herald a new dawn. While it won’t be all sunlit uplands, it could at least be peace in our time, as LCA Partner and Senior Advisor Robert Gordon Clark and the LSE’s Professor Tony Travers expand on in their excellent joint article.

Yet should Labour win really big, Keir Starmer could discover very quickly how Michael Gove felt - the fury of MPs in marginal seats unhappy at planning reforms and building on the Green Belt. Starmer has said he will override local opposition – that test might come sooner than he expected, and from parts of the country he perhaps never expected.

With the General Election tomorrow, we’ve pulled together a helpful guide to the big moments of the night, while LCA’s Insight Team work through into Friday morning to bring you an extra General Election Special edition of LDN on Friday. So look out for this in your inboxes.

And, finally, don’t forget to vote. It is a precious thing that’s all too easy to take for granted.

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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OUR GUIDE TO ELECTION NIGHT

For those who are inclined to pull an all-nighter to see the election results come in, we have your definitive guide to the night, including key sets to watch (and when to get some shut eye!):

10pm: Polls close, counting begins and the all-important exit poll (which have proven pretty accurate in recent elections) is published by broadcasters.

11:30pm(ish): There is traditionally a race to be the first constituency to declare, with Newcastle Central taking first place in 2019 (declaring at 11:27pm). There’s then a bit of a lull for a couple of hours – a good period to get some brief shut eye before it really gets going.

00:30am: We should get the result from Swindon South, the first bellwether of the night. If this goes Labour, it would indicate that the Conservatives are well on track to lose their majority.

1:30am: The first London constituencies – Tooting and Putney – declare, but don’t expect any surprises in these two South West seats. Both likely firmly Labour.

2:30am: This is when it starts to pick up, with about 100 seats declared. We should know whether Cabinet Minister Kemi Badenoch retains her North West Essex seat and if George Galloway remains MP for Rochdale.

3:00am: The results will start coming in thick and fast, including for some key London seats. We will find out whether Greg Hands has held on in Chelsea & Fulham, Iain Duncan Smith has fought off Labour’s challenge in Chingford & Wood Green and if Jeremy Corbyn triumphs in Islington North as an Independent MP. Harlow, Crawley, Nuneaton and Watford – all classic bellwether seats – should also declare.

3:30am: For those looking for potential ‘Portillo moments’, this might be the time – will Jeremy Hunt succumb to the Lib Dem challenge in his Godalming & Ash seat? Will Labour take out Cabinet Ministers Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt? We should also find out whether the Greens have made any inroads in their top target of Bristol Central.

3:45am: Classic bellwether Redditch declares and we’ll find out who wins out in three-way marginal Wimbledon.

4am: If one party wins outright, then the winning post of 326 MPs will be reached around 4am. We should find out who won in two more bellwether seats – Thurrock and Norwich North – around this time. Plus we’ll know the results from Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer’s constituencies, and how Nigel Farage has fared in Clacton. In London, we look to Uxbridge & South Ruislip to see if Labour take the seat they narrowly lost in the 2023 by-election.

4:30am: The Lib Dems fancy winning Tunbridge Wells which we expect around this time – plus two key Labour targets in outer north London: Chipping Barnet and Finchley & Golders Green.

5am: Might one of the shocks of the night be former (and short-lived) PM Liz Truss lose her South West Norfolk seat?

6am: A fantastic night for Labour would see Conservative stronghold Croydon South (seat currently held by Policing Minister Chris Philp) turn red.

Friday: We’ll bring you the actual results in our General Election LDN Special during Friday.

CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP

Crawl to the finish: As battle buses prepare to return to the garage, the last few days of the campaign have seen the parties continuing to chase every last vote. Neither of the main party leaders has graced London much with their presence, but Keir Starmer popped up in the capital for a final weekend rally packed with celebrity endorsements including from Elton John. Yesterday, Rishi Sunak’s big final rally was also in London – although somewhat overshadowed by the first major public appearance this election by former Prime Minister, Boris Johnson. Such a late contribution to the campaign by Johnson will surely raise eyebrows in Tory circles.

Towel-thrower awards: Trusted Tory messenger, Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride, wheeled out on the media more than any other front bencher, effectively conceded defeat. This, and other interventions in the final days by senior Tories, looks a deliberate tactic to chip away at a potential Labour ‘supermajority’ by warning voters of the risks. Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson dubbed the prospect ‘pregnant with horrors’

A numbers game: Recognising the game the Tories are playing, Labour have sought to brush off such fears – focusing instead on avoiding complacency amongst their voters. The party’s National Campaign Coordinator, Pat McFadden (second only to Wes Streeting in campaign media appearances), has been the voice of restraint on any wayward excitement over a potential landslide. But tough decisions and even tougher challenges need a ‘strong mandate’ to govern, so Starmer told the Times.

Built to last: Starmer’s final Sunday paper round included a bold pledge to ‘hit the ground running’ with housebuilding and planning reform from ‘day one’ if elected. High up the early list of priorities are reinstating national housing targets, updating National Planning Policy Framework, and kicking off a council-led review of Green Belt land.

Flying high? Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ driving mission for growth clashed with realpolitik this week. With aviation bosses warning that Heathrow risks falling behind rivals abroad, Reeves hinted at possible support for a third runway, stating that she has ‘nothing against expanding airport capacity’ and ‘wants the airport to be the ‘European hub for travel.’ Given political opposition to a third runway extending to the city’s Labour Mayor, if taken forward a clash down the line looks inevitable..

On the defensive: Meanwhile, while Rishi Sunak tours the Conservative heartlands, he’s raised concerns that his party’s rightward challenger Reform UK has been winning the TikTok battle through ‘malicious foreign’ influence. He’s ordered the Government’s Counter Disinformation Unit to investigate.

If it looks like a duck: For Nigel Farage, no number of TikTok views can mask the number of Reform candidates and activists being accused of alleged ‘widespread’ racism, homophobia and sexism.’ In London, a Savanta survey showed 24% of Conservative voters at the mayoral election in May will be backing their local Reform UK candidate come tomorrow. This splitting of the vote is the worst nightmare for the Tories.

Diamonds are forever: There’s no stunt too outlandish for Kingston and Surbiton’s own Ed Davey, leading his Liberal Democrats through six weeks of electric news coverage which even saw him bungee jump. The tactic of actually enjoying the campaign trail and meeting the voters is clearly paying dividends – there’s even a possibility if the polling is to be believed that the party could supplant the Tories for the role of His Majesty’s Official Opposition.

Tops and tails: While traditional print media might be on the wane, newspaper endorsements remain highly sought after by political parties. While the Telegraph and Mail on Sunday have stayed loyal to the Conservatives, the Sun has made a dramatic endorsement of Labour’s pledge for change, stating Keir Starmer has won ‘the right to take charge.’ So far, Starmer's vision gets the nod from the Sunday Times, City AM, Evening Standard, Guardian, Observer, Mirror, Independent, Economist, Financial Times and Scotland's Daily Record. Now, there’s still time for The Times…

WHAT ARE THE ELECTION MODELS SAYING FOR LONDON?

Poll vault: At a national level, the polls have been pretty consistent this last six weeks, but what might happen in London? With the growth of new sophisticated multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) polls, we’re armed with vast amounts of seat-by-seat prediction data.

How low will they go: Tomorrow, London elects 75 MPs – up two from the last time. Mapping the 2019 results on to the new boundaries has the Conservatives defending 20 seats in London, Labour 52 and Lib Dems three. The Tory record low was 1997 (winning just 11 MPs) but 2024 could see them drop into single figures.

Painting the town red: There’s little in the MRP polls to give Rishi Sunak encouragement in the capital – the best the models predict is six MPs in London, at worst none at all. Most models forecast the Tories losing all their seats in inner London, meaning Tory Chair Greg Hands goes down in Chelsea & Fulham, and Cities of London & Westminster turns red for the first time ever.

Orange wedge: Elsewhere, the Lib Dems top targets in south-west London could go orange - Wimbledon, Carshalton & Wallington, and Sutton & Cheam. Only the latter of the three looks like it could just stay blue.

Blue tinge: If any of the city is to stay blue, the MRPs suggest this will be on the fringes of the city – out east (Hornchurch & Upminster, Romford), south-east (Orpington, Old Bexley & Sidcup) and in the north-west (Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner). JL Partners think only Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner and Orpington remain Conservative, Savanta just Old Bexley & Sidcup, with We.Think/The Economist predicting no blue left on the map at all. One or two models (including YouGov and Electoral Calculus) think that the Tories could hang on by their fingernails in Finchley & Golders Green.

Breaking the stranglehold: With a number of independent candidates running, and with Reform’s vote share holding steady in the high teens, this week’s result will be a test of how well MRP models cope with an election beyond the traditional three main parties. Earlier this week, polling by Savanta/Centre for London showed a drop in Labour’s support, hinting at a shift towards independents and smaller parties. Electoral Calculus/FindOutNow are the only model to point to Reform winning a seat (in Orpington), with them and MoreInCommon plumping for Jeremy Corbyn to hold Islington North as an independent.

• Stanhope’s plans to deliver the City’s tallest building at 1 Undershaft have been deferred by the City of London Corporation to request an updated design for its ground floor public realm. Recommended for approval by the Corporation’s planners, the new building will include 1.2m sq ft of net office space, public amenities and various publicly accessible spaces including an Education Centre and Viewing Gallery curated by the London Museum. Stanhope commented that they will now work closely with the Corporation and 1 Undershaft’s neighbours in the insurance industry and consider minor revisions to the scheme.
  
  
• Ballymore has received planning permission for a 700-home (35% affordable) development on Stratford Waterfront, following outline consent for the site granted in 2019. Delivered in a joint partnership with London Legacy Development Corporation, the plans include four towers between 23 and 27 storeys plus 1,759 sqm of ground floor commercial space.
  
  
• Get Living has launched a new consultation on revised plans to deliver a 450-bed purpose-built student accommodation development in Elephant and Castle. Southwark Council previously granted the developer consent in 2019 for a 498-bed scheme including 165 affordable homes, but Get Living is launching the consultation to ‘improve its proposals’ in line with regulatory and policy changes.
  
  
• Evans Randall Investors has submitted revised proposals to demolish and redevelop the part-five, part-nine storey Thavies Inn House at Holborn Circus. The developer previously secured planning permission from the City of London Corporation in September 2022 to demolish the building and replace it with a 10-storey building, doubling the office floorspace to 100,000 sq ft. The revised plans include demolishing the building while reducing proposed floorspace to 90,000 sq ft and adding balconies and terrace access on each floor, alongside 2,000 sq ft of ground floor retail space.
  
  
• Unite Students and Travis Perkins have submitted plans to deliver a 20-storey, 605-bed purpose-built student accommodation development at Baltic Wharf in Paddington. The plans are revised from the joint venture’s previous proposals to deliver 768 beds in a 20-storey building, which were rejected by Westminster City Council in 2022 due to their ‘significant negative impact’ on nearby amenities and a loss of light.
  
  
• Buckinghamshire Council has rejected Greystroke Land’s revised plans to deliver a 775,000 sq ft data centre in Iver, located on a former landfill between the M40 and M4 motorways. The plans for the ‘West London Technology Park’ would include two buildings of data centre, office and electrical generator facilities. The council stated the plans would harm the ‘openness’ of the Green Belt. The developer’s previous plans for the site were rejected in September 2022 and May 2023 for the same reason, including twice at appeal in November 2023.
  
  
• Giant Mind is exploring the potential sale of the seven-story Bavaria House in Broadgate. The developer bought the building in 2021 from Masterworks Development Corporation, who secured planning consent from Hackney Council in 2015 to demolish the building and deliver a 45-storey, 414-room hotel. Giant Mind has since led on early redesigns for the building to deliver a 48-storey, 400,000 sq ft office building, which have yet to be submitted.

• Co-Founder of Weston Wiliamson + Partners, Chris Williamson, has been elected as the next President of the Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA), narrowly beating Director of BakerBrown, Duncan Baker-Brown, by just 110 votes. He will begin his term as President in September 2025, replacing Muyiwa Oki.
  
  
• Former Chief Development Officer at Bruntwood SciTech, Peter Crowther, has been appointed as the new President of the British Council for Offices. He succeeds Despina Katsikakis, Global Lead of Total Workplace and Cushman & Wakefield. Richard Kauntze is also to step down from his role as Chief Executive in summer 2025.
  
  
• Steve Mason has been appointed as Avison Young’s Managing Director for Project Management, London, joining from Gleeds.
  
  
• The British Property Federation has appointed Jo Allen Junior Vice President. Allen, who is currently Frogmore’s Chief Executive, will work alongside the BPF leadership team to steer its strategic direction.
  
  
• Angela Cain has been appointed as the Global CEO of the Urban Land Institute, joining from CoreNet Global where she held the role of Chief Executive.
  
  
• Cushman & Wakefield has appointed Anthony Dixon as new Head of Living, Land and Development. Joining from 14 years at Allsop, Dixon is to lead development and land transactions.
  
  
• Mace Group has promoted Rob Lemming to the role of Managing Director for Public Sector and Life Sciences, having held the role on an interim basis since January. Mace also announced Alister Grey will be their new Managing Director for Technology and Manufacturing, leading the contractor’s growing portfolio in data centres and gigafactories.
  
  
• Balfour Beatty’s new Chief Executive of Construction Services is Nick Crossfield, replacing Mark Bullock. Crossfield joins from Alston Transportation and will lead on developing Balfour Beatty’s growing infrastructure offer.
  
  
• Business owner and philanthropist Sir Jack Petchey has passed away aged 98. Petchey’s charitable foundation based in east London has invested more than £170m in youth programmes since 1999, with Petchey also having been a director of West Ham FC and owner of Watford FC.

WE RECOMMEND

• A few guides to election night and when to expect what results – from the Guardian and The Times.
• The 100 marginal seats to keep an eye on plus the Evening Standard’s overview of the key election battlegrounds across London.
• Not got anywhere to watch the results on election night? The Evening Standard have the ultimate guide to election night parties.
• As mentioned above, our very own Robert Gordon Clark and the LSE’s Tony Travers on London’s role in the policies of a potential Labour Government.
• London Spy's hair-raising map of average private rents by Tube station.
• Political illustrator Ben Jennings on his 14 years of Conservative satire cartoons.
• Polly Toynbee looks at the chances of Cities of London & Westminster turning Labour for the first time.
• Centre for London's must-read report on the unfinished story of devolution in London.
• How Milton Keynes could be the model to follow if Labour is to solve the housing crisis.
• The fight over the expansion of Wimbledon.

CREATIVE INDUSTRIES SUMMIT

Last Wednesday, LCA hugely enjoyed attending the inaugural Creative Industries Property Summit (CIPS) at King's Place in King’s Cross. This first-of-its-kind event brought together leading figures from the creative and property sectors (including lots of our clients!) for an inspiring day of insights, networking, and positive action. LCA’s Associate Director Phoebe Gardiner chaired a panel on supporting the creative industries' grassroots, taking to the stage along with influential voices from the British Council, British Land, UK Music, Battersea Power Station, Southbank Centre, the Royal Shakespeare Company and NLA. LCA were proud to have supported the summit as Communications Partner, and thrilled to be a part of its conception and delivery. Watch this space for more from this important intersectional conversation!

RACE FOR DOWNING STREET BLOG SERIES

Following our successful Race for City Hall blog series, the LCA team shares their insights on the policy, political change, and challenges facing the next Government:

• Nick Bowes (Managing Director, Insight) with his verdict on the election campaign and how it could shape the Government to come.
• Sam Griffiths (Senior Account Manager, PEP) takes on the challenges for Labour in reforming the planning system.
• Harriet Shone (Director, PEP) shifts the election debate towards the future for private renters.
• Phoebe Gardiner (Associate Director, C&C) and an impassioned call for securing the future of our festivals.
• Ed Williams (Director, PEP) on the challenges for the next Government in completing the New Hospitals Programme.
• Dan Reast (Insight Executive) lists his top seats to watch outside the capital tomorrow night.

WILKINSONEYRE NLA INTERVIEW

This week our client WilkinsonEyre is featured in the NLA – new Director Melissa Clinch talks to David Taylor about succession, the attrition of women from academia into architectural practice, its project Deutsche Bank HQ, and her hopes for the industry, post-election. Read the full interview here.

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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