LDN Weekly – Issue 322 – 26 June 2024 – Turning the Shires Yellow and Red

TURNING THE SHIRES YELLOW AND RED

Dear Reader,

It might surprise loyal LDN readers, but I do occasionally stray beyond the Greater London boundary. Just last Saturday, I ventured into Hampshire, spending the day in Basingstoke, a town that has been blue for as long as anyone can remember – failing even to succumb to New Labour’s charms in 1997.

But this time round, could it be different? Labour thinks so, and is pouring resources into Basingstoke. Perhaps for the very first time the local Tory MP, Maria Miller, is having to fight hard to retain her seat. This is a pattern that is being replicated across the wider south east – areas which have been Tory forever are now under serious assault by Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

What’s driving this? First, the general unpopularity of the Tories – plainly evident from the polls. Second, in a wedge stretching south west of London that is traditionally socially liberal and firmly in London’s economic orbit, increasing numbers of voters find themselves somewhat at odds with today’s Conservative Party. And third, we’re seeing what friend of LCA Professor Tony Travers of the LSE has dubbed the ‘Londonification’ of the wider region – a steady exodus of young professionals from London to the Home Counties diluting the Conservatives’ heartlands.

Now, this conveyor belt of London sucking in people in their twenties, who then leave the city when marriage and children mean a need for homes with more space, gardens etc, is not new. It’s happened for decades. But what seems to have changed in more recent times is that this process has sped up, fuelled by London’s housing pressures and that, compared to the past when perhaps people jettisoned their politics at the M25, they’re now taking their more liberal voting habits with them.

This is manifesting itself in the belt around London with increased numbers voting Labour, Lib Dem and even Green in local and county council elections over recent years. What was previously a predominantly blue belt is now more yellow, red and green, with the blues shrinking back to a scattering of blobs. And, if the polls are right, then the new General Election political map could be heading for the same dramatic recolouring.

Areas that have only ever elected Tory MPs – as well as Basingstoke, these include Aldershot, Godalming, Tunbridge Wells, Harpenden and Berkhamsted, and Woking – could turn yellow and red. If the Lib Dems snatch Godalming, they’d unseat the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt – little wonder he’s barely left his constituency during the whole campaign.

For newly arrived younger voters in these areas, the importance of building more homes is a top issue – shaped by their formative struggles in London’s overheated rental market and trying to get on the housing ladder. For many long-standing local voters, building more homes is one of their biggest concerns – overdevelopment, loss of green space and pressure on public services. Yet if Labour is serious about building 1.5 million new homes in a first term and establishing a new generation of New Towns, this swathe around London needs to be their main area of focus.

That could become a political headache for any future Labour government. Getting large numbers of new homes built and dramatically expanding existing towns will need to be driven by ministerial diktat and likely imposed top down. Win by too large a margin, and Labour might find themselves with MPs in the likely locations in the Home Counties for large-scale housebuilding such as Basingstoke and the like. Taking on your own MPs in newly-won constituencies could provide an early test of Keir Starmer’s mettle in his desire to get Britain building.  

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP

Remember us? The Prime Minister sought to lovebomb London in Monday’s Evening Standard, pledging to support the capital’s nightlife and hospitality sector with a review of the licensing system. Deeming pubs, theatres and restaurants as ‘essential’ to London’s destination economy, Sunak said a review would be set up ‘within 100 days’ of a Tory victory.

Too little, too late: It might not be enough to save the Prime Minister’s party in the capital with a poll from Savanta showing just 22% of Londoners intend to vote Conservative next week, against 55% for Labour. Five recent MRP polls predict at best the Tories holding seven (out of 75) seats in London after 4 July, with Savanta forecasting just one constituency (Old Bexley & Sidcup) remaining blue. The Tories have never been in the single figures in London – and up until the 1997 election had 48 MPs in the capital.

Number of London seats by party in MRP polling  for GE 2024

It's an obsession: Losing May’s Mayoral Election after building so much of their campaign around Sadiq Khan as a bogeyman, you’d think the London Conservatives would have learnt their lesson. But it appears not – with letters to voters and social media adverts negatively portraying Khan as a way of stoking up the Tory voter base and supressing Reform’s surge in the polls. Khan himself has had a busy campaign – popping up all over the city, but also beyond the M25. So far, he’s visited Bristol Central, Birmingham, West Bromwich, Derby, Manchester, Sheffield Hallam, Bradford, Batley & Spen, Dewsbury and Lincoln.

Switches and sways: Only 60% of Liberal Democrat voters in London are still intending to back their party, suggesting tactical voting against the Conservatives on a large scale. Elsewhere, in a further boost for Labour, a poll of Islington North voters has the party 14 points ahead of independent (and previous MP) Jeremy Corbyn.

Knocking on wood I: Reports suggest that dire canvassing data has led to the Conservative Party shifting resources to defend some of its safest seats. These include the Home Secretary James Cleverly’s seat in Braintree (2019 majority, 25,466), and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s much covered battle to defend his Godalming and Ash seat (2019 majority, 10,720) from a Liberal Democrat groundswell.

Knocking on wood II: To compound matters for the Conservatives, it is reported that Labour is redirecting activists away from Liberal Democrat targets in the rural south and south west to some of the party’s own targets, including Aldershot, Basingstoke, Swindon North and both Bournemouth seats. If true, such a move at least hints at the existence of an informal pact, giving free rein as it does to the Lib Dems to take on the Tories.

Flutter clutter: Turns out it wasn’t just the Prime Minister who took a gamble on a summer election, so did some Conservative officials and candidates. The Gambling Commission is investigating up to 15 Tory figures for allegedly suspicious bets on the date of the election. The scandal couldn’t come at a worse time for Sunak, following on from the outrage over the D-Day celebrations and the gaffe over the Sky TV subscription, with outgoing Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove suggesting that it reflects the same public outrage seen during Partygate scandal.

Fillet of Lamb I: Labour hasn’t totally escaped untarnished from the betting scandal with former Lambeth councillor (and CEO of PR and public affairs company PLMR) Kevin Craig suspended as the party’s candidate for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich after it emerged that he had placed a bet against himself winning the seat. Despite Craig apologising, Labour also returned his £100,000 donation just to be squeaky clean. None of this does much to help with the public’s already pretty low regard for politics and politicians….

Fillet of Lamb II: Meanwhile, in Craig’s old patch, news broke this morning that Lambeth Council’s Chief Executive Bayo Dosunmu was arrested and charged last weekend with driving and drug offences. The council is putting in place interim leadership arrangements with Dosunmu ‘currently away from work’.

Quick fix: Labour Leader Keir Starmer is reported to be already eyeing up ways to demonstrate his pro-development credentials if elected on 4 July. A mix of written ministerial statements, secondary legislation, and letters to planning authorities would be rolled out ‘within weeks’ to get the ball rolling on planning reform and unblocking stalled decisions, including reinstating national housing targets.

Open door policy: In the City, Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves continues to promote Labour’s pro-business stance, pledging to make the UK a ‘safe haven’ for foreign direct investment in a ‘turbulent’ geopolitical climate.

Wrath of God: Gaining considerable screen time during the election is Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Paul Johnson. On Monday, in his latest intervention, Johnson accused both the Conservatives and Labour of failing to acknowledge the scale of the challenge facing the public finances, with both parties avoiding tax rises to simultaneously reduce debt, meet spending pledges, and avoid making cuts to public services.

Unspoken word: Reeves is clearly aware of the coming financial inheritance, accepting that it would be ‘pretty dire.’ Guardian reports that Labour is drawing up proposed changes to wealth taxes to raise revenue, including capital gains tax and inheritance tax, were eagerly pounced on by the Tory campaign.

Nothing’s changed: Labour remain steadfast in the face of Tory accusations that they will raise tax on ‘working people’, but continue to prevaricate over what the party might go with wealth taxes.

SEATS TO WATCH 

Two Tory held seats on the fringes of Greater London are this week’s seats to watch.

New constituency boundaries, 2019 notional results

Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Classic outer London commuter belt, situated in the west of the city, it includes the major town centre of Uxbridge itself with many prosperous, Elizabeth line-connected suburban areas mixed amongst swathes of green spaces. Tory since the new incarnation of the seat in 2010, and Tory also for nearly all of the previous 125 years as just Uxbridge, recent years have seen the constituency at the centre of some fierce political battles.

Hot air and ULEZ: Conservative Steve Tuckwell is seeking re-election, having won the highly charged July 2023 by-election (during which Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ expansion plans become the focus of the campaign) by just 495 votes. Tuckwell’s predecessor was former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who triggered the by-election by resigning on 12 June in response to an investigation by the Commons Privileges Committee into his actions around the Partygate scandal.

Instant replay: The General Election will be a re-run of the by-election, with Tuckwell facing Labour’s Danny Beales, a Camden Councillor and Cabinet Member. With Keir Starmer having made a pit stop in Uxbridge in the last few weeks, and with the area showing a swing to Sadiq Khan in the May Mayoral elections, Labour will be hopeful of finishing the job and winning the seat. On the basis of current polling – and with all the recent MRP polls predicting a Labour gain – the 7.8% swing it’ll take for Uxbridge to turn red looks within Labour’s reach.

Croydon South: The seat stretching from the sprawling out-of-town shopping outlets of Purley Way in the north through the leafy suburbia of Purley and Coulsdon to the North Downs and the Surrey borders. Croydon South has deep blue roots, electing Conservative MPs in every election since the constituency was created in 1974.

Philp your boots: In 2019, Tory Chris Philp won capturing 52% of the vote with a majority of over 12,000. Philp has held a number of ministerial roles, most recently since October 2022 as Minister of State for Crime, Policing and Fire. He hasn’t been without controversy – most recently, appearing to not realise that Rwanda and Congo are different countries and, in the past week, his wife hitting the headlines over allegations of corporate espionage.  

The local and the national: The battle in Croydon South sees a clash of local, regional and national issues. The bankruptcy of the local council under the previous Labour leadership, the impact of the Mayor of London’s ULEZ expansion, tensions caused by increased housebuilding and Labour’s proposed removal of the VAT exemption on private school fees all likely topics of conversation on the doorstep.

Road to Downing Street runs through Purley: Philp runs again for the Tories and up against him is Labour’s Ben Taylor, a local businessman who founded the charity Croydon Mutual Aid. Labour’s required swing in Croydon South (13.2%) is roughly what Keir Starmer needs to gain a working majority. On a very good night for the party – with tactical voting firing on all cylinders – Labour could win. If so, there’ll be few – if any – Tory MPs left in the whole city.

• Berkeley Group has been granted planning permission by Newham Council for its redevelopment of the 23-acre Bromley-by-Bow Gasworks, providing more than 2,000 new homes. Delivered in three phases, the homes would be delivered in round buildings up to 32 storeys, with seven of the buildings incorporating the restored Grade II-listed frames of former gas holders currently on site. The plans also include 70% of the site as public open space, plus a community centre and central water feature created from two derelict gas holders.  
  
  
• Stanhope’s proposed redevelopment of 1 Undershaft in the City of London has been recommended for approval by planning officers and will be heard at a planning committee meeting on 2 July. The plans include the delivery of the City of London’s tallest building, providing over 1.2m sq ft of net office space and various publicly accessible spaces including an Education Centre and Viewing Gallery to be curated by the London Museum.
  
  
• GLP Capital Partners’ subsidiary Ada Infrastructure has received planning permission from Newham Council to deliver a 210 MW data centre in Silvertown. The development includes delivering a six-storey, 64,245 sqm building and substation with infrastructure to enable connection to future heat networks.
  
  
• Segro has secured planning permission from Havering Council to deliver a 20-acre industrial and logistics development at Courier Road Park, Rainham. The developer is to deliver up to 310,500 sq ft of warehouse space on the site, to low-carbon standards with 20% of the site as safeguarded biodiverse natural space.
  
  
• The GLA’s hearing into the long running All England Club’s plans to expand Wimbledon will be held at the end of July 2024, following a further public consultation which closed earlier this month. The club submitted amendments to the 73-acre scheme to remove parts of the boundary fences between the site and neighbouring Wimbledon Park, along with further landscaping improvements, to improve connectivity between both parks. The scheme was called in by Deputy Mayor of London for Planning Jules Pipe in October 2023. The annual Wimbledon fortnight starts this coming Monday.

• The Homes Builders Federation has appointed Neil Jefferson as their new Chief Executive, taking over from Stewart Baseley who takes on the role of Chairman. Jefferson has served as Managing Director since 2020.
  
  
• Leading engineer and construction executive Ray O’Rourke is stepping down as Group Chief Executive of Laing O’Rourke after five decades in the role. He will continue to sit on the firm’s group board while his son and civil engineer Cathal O’Rourke is to step into the CEO role.
  
  
• Abri has appointed Helen Wilson as their new Regional Managing Director for the South, leading responsibility for managing over 16,000 social homes. She joins from Clarion Housing Group where she led on strategic partnerships and projects for seven years.
  
  
• Emma Morgan has been appointed as Head of Community Engagement at the London Fire Brigade, joining from the British Library. Starting in July, Morgan replaces Donna Peters who leaves after four years.
  
  
• Nathan Parsad-Wyatt is joining the New West End Company (NWEC) BID as the new Director of Communications & Campaigns. He joins from consultancy Concilio where he led as a Director and Head of Public Affairs.
  
  
• The City of London Corporation has elected Sheriffs for the coming year. Alderman for Farringdon Without, Gregory Jones, and entrepreneur David Chalk are to assist the Lord Mayor as ambassadors for the City and the Old Bailey, in a role which was first appointed in the 11th century. 
  
  
• Former Chief Executive of Manchester City Council, Sir Howard Bernstein, has died aged 71. Bernstein is widely credited with leading the regeneration of the city following the 1996 IRA bombing, as well as successfully delivering the 2002 Commonwealth Games.

WE RECOMMEND

• The estimated declaration times for the General Election results.
• Keir Starmer’s interview with Inside Housing.
• Wandsworth’s approach to e-bikes.
• The Guardian's Oliver Wainwright on the legacy of the Conservatives' Help to Buy scheme.
• The Prime Minister’s interview with the Evening Standard.
• POLITICO’s focus on how the Conservatives ‘lost their heart and soul’.
• Part of City A.M.’s Build Baby Build campaign, Centre for Cities’ Paul Swinney calls for more devolution to London and other UK cities so that they are able to retain more taxes, as well as the implementation of a rules-based planning system.

WHEN TAYLOR COMES TO TOWN

Last week we were excited to coordinate a visit from Mayor of London Sadiq Khan to Quintain’s Wembley Park and the brand new ‘Swiftie Steps’. Khan was photographed next to fantastic murals by Frank Styles and artist HUMOR, to honour Taylor Swift’s arrival and the economic impact this is having on the capital.

LCA also coordinated ITV and US broadcaster NBC filming across Wembley Park as Taylor fever swept the area. Our very own Account Manager Katie Molyneaux even made it into The Times newsletter! Taylor has brought a significant boost in footfall and sales to Wembley Park, sparking a conversation around the impact of entertainment and culture on placemaking.

Photos courtesy of Chris Winter/Quintain

ESTABLISHING THE NEXT WAVE OF WOMEN IN ENGINEERING

Hear from our client Legendre UK in The Engineer - Alexia Dieumegard discusses how we can inspire the next generation of women in engineering, better represent women already in the industry, and help to fill the current STEM skills shortage. Read the full piece here.

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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