LDN Weekly – Issue 321 – 19 June 2024 – How to Lose Votes and Alienate People

HOW TO LOSE VOTES AND ALIENATE PEOPLE

Dear Reader,

With the Euros in full swing, it’s fair to say that football rather than politics might be top of many people’s priorities. And the parties aren’t totally immune to the public mood – canvass sessions no doubt routinely suspended to avoid door knocking during key matches. Woe betide any candidate dragging a fan away from the TV just as the ball hits the back of the net – a surefire way to alienate the voters!

At the risk of stretching a football analogy to breaking point, this election doesn’t look like it’s going to extra time, let alone penalties. We’re now well into the second half, and the Tories show no sign of closing in on Labour’s lead – saving face now their best hope. I remain unconvinced it’ll end up as bad on the night as some polls suggest but with Paddy Power offering 1/50 on a Labour victory, Keir Starmer looks all but certain to collect the winner’s trophy on 5 July.  By comparison, ahead of Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, the bookies were giving Labour odds of 1/6 to win.

Not all votes are cast on 4 July – from this week, postal votes begin landing on door mats. Therefore, it’s hardly surprising that the Conservatives have started hammering away at Labour’s tax policies, with some reports suggesting Tory strategists are urging a full-on brutal attack on Starmer in the final 15 days. Behind this mounting panic is Reform eating away at the Tory vote – with one YouGov poll last week showing them ahead of the Conservatives. Given the nature of our electoral system, the Tories dipping below 20% starts to see them haemorrhaging seats, albeit mostly to the Lib Dems and Labour, not Reform. The first past the post system can be brutal – showing no mercy even to the party which is its staunchest defender.

Most manifestos are now published. Labour’s approach is caution – careful commitments they claim are fully costed. Given their poll lead, perhaps it is a sensible electoral strategy. Yet this comes with risks – the country faces huge challenges and it might appear that Labour simply aren’t up to what is about to hit them when they take over the reins of power. For the Conservatives, their manifesto throws everything at the electorate - in Yorkshire, we’d call it a full bag o’mashings – with the aim of minimising the scale of defeat. It is easy to commit to what you like when you know you’re not going to be in a position to implement any of it.

But neither party are being honest about the hole in the public finances, much to the despair of the trusted independent bodies like the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Whoever wins will have to raise taxes or slash public spending, or a combination of both. With Labour ruling out so many tax changes and the Tories promising tax cuts, both parties are operating in a parallel reality.

The Tories are hammering away at Labour’s tax policies, almost picking a different tax a day, leaving Starmer & Co on the defensive. On VAT on private school fees, they’ve stood firm – but in other areas, they’ve caved. Yet some taxes are truly broken – council tax the most obvious. Regressive, unreflective of property prices and disconnected from what it is intended to fund, both main parties want to preserve the status quo. This is madness.

Labour have shown themselves brittle when placed under even modest pressure. We’ve seen this before – during the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election on ULEZ expansion, and again during the Green New Deal funding – and now on council tax. This doesn’t bode well for the party when it is in Government, even if they end up with a majority of 200 or more. The pressures when in charge will be magnitudes greater and you can’t take decisions which benefit everyone – Labour needs to recognise that now if it is to govern with maturity.

STOP PRESS: Just ahead of pressing send on this week’s LDN, two new polls pile more misery on the Tories. YouGov predict they’ll be left with just 108 MPs (Labour winning a majority of 200) and Savanta even worse with only 53 Tory MPs left (a Labour majority of 382) with even Rishi Sunak losing his seat.

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP

Days of wine and roses: Two weeks to go and the battle buses are still zooming around the UK. Despite this, the polls show little movement from when Rishi Sunak first called the election. Stalwart cabinet minister Grant Shapps effectively admitted defeat on Monday, describing himself as a ‘realist’ in the face of the coming storm.

Love for sale: Labour’s long-awaited manifesto was launched last Thursday pledging a ‘total change in direction’, with wealth creation, rebuilding Britain, and growth top priorities. Sleeves rolled up, party leader Keir Starmer spoke to the party faithful in the Co-op’s headquarters in Manchester. Change was very much the word of the day, emblazoned as it is across the cover of the 136-page manifesto.

How high the moon: Labour’s key pledges include building 1.5m homes by 2029… public ownership of the railways… a publicly owned energy company GB Energy… planning and compulsory purchase reforms… new long-term strategies for infrastructure, industry and transport… a next generation of new towns… committing to private rented sector and leasehold reforms… closing non-dom tax loopholes… replacing the business rates system… a New Deal for Working People…further devolution to mayors, combined authorities and councils.

How deep is the ocean: The Conservatives continue their attacks on Labour’s tax and economic plans, leading Labour to rule out increasing capital gains tax on house sales, and rule out changes to council tax banding, VAT, income tax and National Insurance. For Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the list of places where the party can raise more money is shrinking by the day.

Night and day: Reeves indicated Labour would seek to improve the UK’s trade deal with the EU, one of the few moments in the campaign the parties have ventured on to old battlegrounds. So far, both Labour and the Conservatives have avoided Brexit, so this intervention by Reeves perhaps showing the direction of travel for a future Labour government.

Our love is here to stay: Waiting in the wings, Reform UK also launched their 'Contract' with the people. At a slim 28 pages, it pledges to scrap net zero targets, halt the Renters Reform Bill, replace the Equality Act, and freeze all non-essential immigration. The party’s slow-but-steady growth in the polls suggests Reform could even end up with a handful of MPs, or at the very least, spell the end for another swathe of Tory MPs.

Mercy, mercy, mercy: In formerly safe Tory seats, there are some reports of a 'sense of panic' at the negative response on the doorstep. It’s not often one of the oldest and the most successful political party in the world is associated with words such as ‘extinction’, ‘doomsday’ and ‘oblivion’. A trio of Farage, Labour and the Liberal Democrats has forced the party into a damage limitation strategy, with briefings increasingly warning voters, seeking to punish the party, of the dangers of a Labour ‘supermajority’ rather than the benefits of a Tory government.

As time goes by: With two more editions of LDN before polling day, there’s still a chance that events such as Theresa May’s 2017 'dementia tax' moment could shift the dial. But with Labour’s poll lead so far failing to budge, the party are now directing activists into even deeper Tory territory in the hunt for Labour gains.

SEATS TO WATCH 

Going for Gold: It’s not all about Labour-Conservative battles in London. The Lib Dems are also eyeing up gains on 4 July, with three seats in the south-west of the city top of their wish list. Carshalton & Wallington and Wimbledon, both won by the Tories with three figure majorities in 2019, are the Lib Dem’s number one and number three targets in the whole country.

New constituency boundaries, 2019 notional results

Carshalton & Wallington: Tory Elliot Colburn nabbed this seat in 2019 from the Lib Dems by just 629 votes, dislodging Tom Brake who’d been the local MP since 1997. Sat within Lib Dem controlled Sutton Council, the constituency is dominated by suburban semi-detached and detached housing and voted Brexit in the 2016 referendum

Runners and riders: Colburn goes again this time for the Tories, with local councillor Bobby Dean standing for the Lib Dems. To capture this from the Tories, the Lib Dems need a swing of just 0.6%.

Tie Break: Wimbledon is the Lib Dem’s second target in London, and in 2019 it saw a three-way tussle with the Conservatives just holding on by 628 votes. But with the local council – Merton – controlled by Labour, the reds aren’t giving up just yet, with Sadiq Khan one of many senior figures seen campaigning in the patch in recent weeks.

Game, Set, Match: Both Lib Dem and Labour chances were boosted by news the sitting Tory MP Stephen Hammond, who has represented the area since 2005, was standing down. Replacing him is Danielle Dunfield-Prayero. For the Lib Dems, local councillor Paul Kohler stands again, having fought the 2019 election with the Deputy Leader of Merton Council, Eleanor Stringer, standing for Labour. Kohler would need a swing of just 0.7% to win the seat – for Stringer, it’d take a swing of 17.5% – which of them manages to best squeeze the others voters could well decide who wins.

Sutton & Cheam: Tory since 2015 when Paul Scully won it back from the Lib Dems after an 18 year period and one of the safest Tory seats in the city. Following Scully’s failure to be shortlisted as the party’s London Mayoral candidate and his sacking as a minister, he announced he’d stand down at the General Election.

Facing off: Tom Drummond steps in to the space vacated by Scully, with fellow Sutton councillor Luke Taylor selected by the Lib Dems. A taller order for the Lib Dems here with an 8.3% swing needed to win back a seat they lost in 2015.

LCA’s view: Wimbledon and Carshalton & Wallington look likely to be Lib Dem gains come 5 July, but the Tories might just hold on in Sutton & Cheam unless tactical voting really goes against the blues. Two Lib Dem gains and a toss up!

• Westminster City Council planning officers have recommended approval for Derwent London and Lazari Investments’ proposed eight-storey office building on Baker Street. The plans include the demolition of five six-storey buildings with a combined 122,300 sq ft in floorspace, to replace with an eight-storey 240,000 sq ft building with ground floor retail and a community space managed by the Baker Street Quarter Partnership BID. The scheme would also include 17 homes and funding towards an off-site carbon savings project. The application will be considered at committee on 25 June.
  
  
• Hill Group and Poplar HARCA’s outline plans for an £800m major regeneration of the Teviot Estate in Poplar have been submitted to Tower Hamlets Council. Residents voted 86% in favour of regeneration in a 2019 ballot, which includes multi-phase delivery of 1,750 homes (35% affordable) replacing 535 existing homes, a new multi-use community centre, extensive improvements to Langdon Park and public realm, and an improved mosque. The plans are a reduction on the developers’ earlier proposals for 2,500 homes, which were amended following resident consultations.
  
  
• Promontoria Battersea’s plans to deliver a 160-home (35% affordable) mixed-use building at Battersea Bridge have been amended after criticism from local residents. The developer’s previous plans for a 39-storey building have since been reduced to 34 storeys while retaining the same number of homes, a community hub, 8,000 sq ft of office space and a new riverside restaurant.
  
  
• The Planning Inspectorate has granted permission on appeal for PPHE Group’s plans to deliver a new 15-storey, 186-bed hotel in Lambeth North. Lambeth Council refused consent for the plans in July 2023, describing the application as a ‘discordant addition to the townscape’, the area’s sense of heritage and a harmful addition to the existing number of hotels in the area. The Inspectorate disagreed on all counts.
  
  
• Firethorn has purchased its second London office building to convert into 70 homes for its residential platform, Firethorn Living. The 70,000 sq ft, four-story building in the City of Westminster was bought from Charles Street Building Group, having previously been let to a government agency by the Crown Estate.

• Sir George Iacobescu is to step down as Chairman of the Board at Canary Wharf Group after five years. One of the district's biggest champions, Iacobescu previously held the role of Chief Executive from 1997 before appointing Shobi Khan as his successor in 2019. Former Chief Executive of Legal & General, Sir Nigel Wilson, is to be Iacobescu’s replacement.
  
  
• Mathew Evans-Pollard has joined Hadley Property Group as their new Managing Director. He joins after 22 years with Deloitte as a Partner and Group Head of Development and Assurance.
  
  
• Moat has appointed Gavin Cansfield as Chief Executive, joining from Hertfordshire-based provider Settle, joining later this year following the departure of Mary Gibbons in February.
  
  
• Chief Financial Officer at British Land, Bhavesh Mistry, is stepping down after three years with the firm. Mistry is to join home improvements retailer Kingfisher, succeeding current and retiring CFO, Bernard Bot.
  
  
• British Land has appointed Kerry Williams as its new Investment Director, with responsibility for retail capital markets. Williams joins from M&G Real Estate where he led as Director of Retail Investment for nine years.
  
  
• Outgoing Chief Executive of Metropolitan Thames Valley Housing, Geeta Nanda, has been appointed as a trustee for homelessness charity Crisis.
  
  
• Wates Group has appointed former Lendlease director Brian Long as new Group Health, Safety and Wellbeing Director. Long was employed by Lendlease for more than 17 years in health, safety and sustainability roles.
  
  
• Paul Thorogood has been appointed as Bexley Council’s permanent Chief Executive, having held the post on an interim basis since autumn 2023. He previously held the role of Director of Finance and Corporate Services.

KING'S BIRTHDAY HONOURS

Many of London’s best and brightest received honours in the King’s Birthday Honours list, marking outstanding contributions to public service, business and charity. Here’s a non-exhaustive list of top gongs.

• Former Labour MP for Westminster North, Karen Buck, has been awarded a Damehood.
• Labour Leader of Camden Council and current parliamentary candidate in Queen’s Park and Maida Vale, Georgia Gould was made an OBE
• Deputy Leader of Waltham Forest Council, Labour’s Clyde Loakes, was awarded an OBE
• Former Conservative member of the London Assembly (and its predecessor the Greater London Council as well as a Richmond-on-Thames councillor), Tony Arbour, becomes an OBE.
• Laura Citron, Chief Executive of London & Partners, becomes an OBE
• Nicholas Lyons, former Lord Mayor of London, receives a knighthood.
• Former Deputy Chair of Arup, Dervilla Mitchell, is made a Dame for services to engineering.
• Taylor Wimpey’s Chief Executive Jennie Daly receives a CBE.
• Founder of Derwent London, John Burns, has been awarded a CBE.
• Chief Executive of Build UK, Suzannah Nichol, is awarded an OBE.
• Former Chair of London Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Subhash Thakrar, receives an OBE.
• Professor Tracy Borman, CEO of the Heritage Education Trust and Joint Chief Curator at Historic Royal Palaces, has been awarded an OBE.

WE RECOMMEND

• LCA’s Insight Team’s analysis on London’s local councillors standing for Parliament made the Evening Standard, with more detailed analysis here by our very own Nick Bowes.
• The Financial Times reports on ‘Project A30’ – the Lib Dem plan to take the South West of England
• City AM’s new campaign - Yes in my backyard! It’s time to get London building
• Reports from the campaign trail in Uxbridge from the Guardian with Tory woes in Kensington & Bayswater from The Times
• How Ring Doorbells have transformed political canvassing
• Oliver Wainwright gets his teeth into Labour’s housing plans
• Robbie Griffiths on the disappearance of London’s police stations

2024 - A YEAR OF ELECTIONS

LCA was delighted to host senior built environment leaders, opinion formers and executives for the latest edition of our well-established Breakfast Waffle series, kindly hosted by Avison Young.

LCA's Managing Director of Insight Nick Bowes presented on the latest polling, manifesto pledges, and seats to watch on the night, as polling day draws closer.

Chaired by Co-Managing Director and Partner Jane Groom, Nick was joined for a lively panel discussion and Q&A with the LSE's Professor Tony Travers and Avison Young's Principal and UK President, Nick Walkley.

ONE WEEK TO GO TO CIPS 2024

One week to go until the inaugural Creative Industries Properties Summit, brought to you by Movers & Shakers!

Join us for a powerhouse day of insights and innovations at the Creative Industries Property Summit. Immerse yourself into captivating keynotes, dynamic panels and explore the future of collaboration, investment and creativity.

Connect with industry leaders on the cutting edge of the creative economy. ️Book your place now and using the discount code LCA0705 to get tickets at members rate!

THE STAGE IS SET FOR WEST END LIVE 2024

Trafalgar Square is once again set to be transformed into London’s biggest outdoor theatre auditorium this weekend (22–23 June) with the return of West End LIVE. The event, hosted each year by Westminster City Council and the Society of London Theatre, will showcase a carousel of the West End’s top performers and shows, live and for free.

Our in-house Creative Studio have delivered the management and implementation of the event brand for a third year running, overseeing the roll-out across all creative touch points, from out-of-home and site dressing to social and web.

Head down to the square to grab a glass of Pimm’s and soak in the celebration of talent and diversity on display across London’s West End! Find out more at westendlive.co.uk

Photo courtesy of Pamela Raith for Westminster City Council and the Society of London Theatre

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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