LDN Weekly – Issue 312 – 18 April 2024 – Street Fighting

Dear Reader,

By my reckoning, there’s been 12 opinion polls on the London Mayoral race since last June, the most recent of which was published just the other day. With a few weeks to go until election day, there’s still time for a few more.

In contrast, the absence of polling on the other mayoral races across the country is really marked. A few months ago, a poll did emerge on the Tees Valley contest, albeit there was chatter at the time about its robustness. Then just a few days ago, a poll landed on the highly-contested race in the West Midlands. But that’s it.

Contrary to what some might believe, I don’t think the world ends at the M25. After all, I am a northerner who is on loan to the capital. So I find it all rather puzzling.

Why is the London mayoral race polled so much? London’s sheer size is a factor (the total electorate over three times as large as the next biggest, Greater Manchester and the West Midlands). Plus, it’s the capital city, and home to much of the commentariat and media – although none of this helps dispel the fear that the country is overly London-centric!

Looking at who commissioned the polls tells an interesting story – a mix of academic institutions, think tanks, campaign groups and media outlets – plus some just done under their own steam by pollsters. But Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham and the other major cities aren’t without universities and research institutions or local media, so why so little polling? Perhaps it’s a product of some of the contests being perceived as not really contests – just a matter of by how much the likes of Andy Burnham, Steve Rotheram and Tracy Brabin will win by – so why waste money on polling?

Yet the contests beyond the M25 on 2 May matter – not least to the voters in those areas, but also for what it tells us about the mood of the electorate just a few months out from a General Election. And mayors aren’t the only ones up for election – they’re joined by 2,655 councillors in 107 local authorities, 37 Police and Crime Commissioners across England and Wales and a parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South. It reckons to be a super Thursday. 

That’s why we need to steel ourselves for the usual expectation management over the coming two weeks – politicians looking to frame the results as better or worse than was expected, with numbers banded about on how many councillors are expected to be won or lost, and whether the results create or check the parties’ momentum.

Much of the focus is on the West Midlands – perhaps explaining why it is the only place so far to be polled – where Andy Street, the Conservative incumbent looks to have an uphill struggle to hold on. Over his two terms, Street has worked hard to position himself as a champion of the region, as non-partisan and moderate but even this might not be enough to save him. Given the West Midlands is home to a swathe of key parliamentary battlegrounds which might play a role in deciding the outcome of the next General Election, I’d recommend that the London-centric media’s eyes in the days following the 2 May should be on Birmingham. 

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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LONDON POLITICS ROUNDUP

Tick tock: A new poll by Savanta for Centre for London continues the trend of significant leads for Sadiq Khan, with the incumbent Mayor on 50% and his Conservative challenger Susan Hall on 26%. Despite what looks like a ‘donut strategy’ from Hall (regardless of her campaign’s denials), Khan also leads Hall in Outer London (46% v 31%).

ICYMI: BBC London has put together a very helpful selection of snappy videos asking the candidates how they would change London.

Hustings: The London Jewish Forum hosted the first mayoral hustings to feature the two main party candidates together. Things got lively with independent candidate Andreas Michli – not invited to take part in the hustings - disrupting proceedings by shouting from the audience the names of victims of knife crime in the capital. He left voluntarily after 20 minutes of heckling.

Food for thought: During the hustings, Khan accused Hall of rolling back on her pledge to continue City Hall’s free school meals programme if elected. Hall said she ‘would look at’ the ‘unfair’ £140m policy, saying that ‘there is no such thing as a free meal. People have to pay for it.’ Hall defended her critique of the policy at last night’s ITV London hustings, accusing Khan of spreading ‘desperate smears and disinformation.’

Big talk in tall town: Khan has ramped up his pledge-making in the past week: a publicly owned London Bus Company with a 100% zero-emission bus fleet, a £10m boost to back an eyebrow-raising ambitious commitment to end rough sleeping by 2030, a free legal advice pilot project for sexual violence victims, a new climate action plan with a Net Zero Schools initiative and a long-promised City Hall owned housing developer.

Back on track? Khan re-stated his commitment to making the case to Government for funding to deliver the West London Orbital rail project, extending the Bakerloo line and the DLR to Thamesmead, and even *gulp* Crossrail 2.

Dead horses: Speaking of transport, Hall’s assertion that Khan wants a pay-per-mile scheme has taken a new dimension. Khan’s campaign has called on the Crown Prosecution Service to assess Hall’s leaflets for a potential breach of electoral law – a striking flyer resembling a ‘penalty charge notice’ has been dropping through letter boxes. Hall isn’t backing down on the issue though: two op-eds for GB News (£) and the Standard accuse Khan of ‘gaslighting’ Londoners on pay-per-mile.

Night owl: Having admitted to being ‘a raver back in the day, Hall pledged to expand Night Tube services to the Hammersmith & City line, plus Circle, District and Metropolitan lines ‘when feasible.’ Hall said that extending the Night Tube would ‘deliver a better night-time offer’ for London and support safer travel with CCTV in all Tube carriages.

Lemon pledge: Liberal Democrat candidate Rob Blackie launched his manifesto with a strong focus on reforming the Met Police and tackling crime against women and girls. Blackie said that the current Mayor’s record on crime was ‘shameful’ with many victims ‘denied justice.’ Other commitments include pedestrianising Oxford Street, releasing more TfL land for development, a new ‘Good Developer’ accreditation scheme for builders, and extending the Overground to (Lib Dem controlled) Sutton.

Switching sides: However, Lib Dem candidate for the cancelled 2020 mayoral election, Siobhan Benita, has backed Sadiq Khan, warning against the ‘nightmare of having such a divisive, hard-right Tory Mayor.’ Some embarrassment also for Susan Hall as her former deputy on Harrow Council, Barry Macleod-Cullinane, is openly supporting Khan’s re-election campaign.

Toxic air? The expansion of ULEZ to outer London last August proved controversial in some quarters, but could it affect how Londoners intend to vote in sufficient numbers to influence the result? LSE’s Professor Tony Travers view is that it wouldn’t be a ‘knock-out blow’ for Khan’s vote share, but ‘could make a difference in a very, very tight mayoral election.’ Green London Assembly Member, Zack Polanski, described ULEZ as ‘the dog that didn’t bite’ on Inside Croydon’s ‘Under The Flyover’ podcast, citing high compliance rates as evidence of it being a ‘non-issue’. None of this has stopped Hall from ramming home the message that she’ll scrap the expansion if she wins.

Ciao bella: Khan’s courting of European citizens – eligible to vote in the coming election – continues apace, with an interview in Italy’s Repubblica newspaper. In a move likely to irritate Keir Starmer’s team – who are reluctant to even whisper the B-word – Khan talked about the UK’s departure from the EU, saying he finds it ‘frustrating’ that the party has ‘got to respect’ the result of the 2016 referendum, before stating that ‘Labour is your only hope against Brexit.’ Guarda questo spazio…

LONDON ASSEMBLY - KEY BATTLEGROUNDS

Geography: The second of our deep dives looks at Brent & Harrow. Made up of two boroughs - Brent (Labour controlled since 2010) and Harrow (which the Tories gained from Labour in one of the surprises of the 2022 local elections), three Labour parliamentary constituencies (Brent North, Brent Central and Harrow West), Tory Harrow East and bits of Hampstead & Kilburn (Labour) and Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner (Tory).

History: With one exception (2004-2008), Brent & Harrow has returned a Labour Assembly member in every election. Voters backed Ken Livingstone four times for Mayor and Sadiq Khan in 2016 – but last time round, Conservative Mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey gained most first preferences (40% to Khan’s 38%).

Politics: Current Assembly Member, Labour’s Krupesh Hirani, was first elected in 2021 and is defending a majority of over 21,000. Facing Hirani is Romanian-born entrepreneur Stefan Bucovineanul-Voloseniuc (Conservative), Nida Al-Fulaij (Green), Ian Price (Reform) and Jonny Singh (Liberal Democrat).

Carrying your home borough: While the Tories are on the backfoot elsewhere in the capital, might this be one part of the city where they fancy their chances? Not least as Harrow is home to Conservative Mayoral Candidate Susan Hall, and she’ll be keen to do well here on 2 May. Current Mayor, Sadiq Khan, brought his home borough of Wandsworth with him when he was first elected in 2016, something Hall will be keen to emulate. 

What to watch: could this be a real test of how much issues like the expansion of ULEZ really cut through at the ballot box? While recent polls suggest it is a priority for only a minority of voters, there could be a more concentrated outer London effect.

Constituency of two halves: while recent polling suggests Khan leads Hall in both inner and outer London, Harrow has shown itself reluctant to conform in recent elections. Generally speaking, Harrow has backed Tory mayoral candidates and Brent goes with Labour’s. But last time Khan was less popular than his own party’s Assembly candidate, with a particular fall in his vote in Brent (down eight percentage points from 2016). Some ascribe this to the British Indian diaspora’s changing voting habits – and 2 May will give an insight on whether this trend continues to be a factor.

Mayoral winners by superconstituency, 2021 London elections

• The Secretary of State has issued a holding direction on the City of London Corporation’s London Wall West plans, which include the demolition of all buildings on a 2.18ha site on the western end of London Wall, home to the former Museum of London. Earlier today, the City’s Planning and Transportation Committee approved its proposals following planning officers’ recommendation to grant consent. The scheme proposes three new office buildings between five and 17 storeys, the provision of 8,182 sqm of cultural floorspace, a new Central Plaza off London Wall, and extensive public realm alterations to improve connectivity. Local campaigners, heritage groups and the local politicians oppose the plans, issuing over 870 objections. Full planning permission for the development is therefore on hold until the Secretary of State issues a decision whether to call in the plans or allow the City’s consent to stand.
  
  
• Marylebone Cricket Club and WilkinsonEyre have secured planning permission from Westminster City Council for the proposed redevelopment of the Allen and Tavern stands at Lord’s Cricket Ground, adding a new roof and street scape improvements. The expanded capacity will feature 1,107 additional seats in new tiers, as well as a new top-floor bar and bridge connecting the stands to the Grade II-listed pavilion.
  
  
• HIG Realty and Lateral have submitted plans to Tower Hamlets Council to deliver a nine-storey life sciences scheme as part of the Whitechapel Life Science Cluster on Cavell Street. The proposals include around 110,000 sq ft of lab-enabled space, ‘affordable’ lab space, and a community knowledge centre on the 0.5 acre site.
  
  
• Delancey has submitted plans to Islington Council for the delivery of a 200,000 sq ft science and technology scheme at the Knowledge Quarter at York Way. The proposals include demolition of a low-rise warehouse and car forecourt currently on site and the delivery of 14,000 sq ft communal and events space, 13,000 sq ft of affordable workspace and a new ‘pocket garden.’
  
  
• The London Legacy Development Corporation (LLDC) granted approval for Scape’s proposed 212-unit shared living development at Hackney Wick delivered across two connected buildings rising to eight storeys, providing 1,200 sq m of flexible workspace and public realm improvements. 
  
  
• Metropolitan Properties submitted plans for the redevelopment of the 11-storey Tenter House in the City of London. The application marks the seventh proposal for redevelopment of the site in nearly three decades and includes the delivery of a 22-storey ‘innovative and sustainable’ office building as well as public realm improvements.
  
  
• Meanwhile, Obayashi Properties and Sellar opened a public consultation into their plans to transform 60 Gracechurch Street in the City of London. The developer proposes expanding the eight-storey building from 127,300 sq ft to 350,000 sq ft, doubling the floorspace and adding terraces on every floor. The approach to demolition is currently being considered through a ‘carbon optioneering study’, with the developer seeking to ‘retain, reuse or recycle as much of the existing fabric as possible.’
  
  
• London Square Group has acquired the 14-storey Westminster Tower on Albert Embankment for £40.8m from CLS Holdings. The developer intends to carry out a conversion of the office block into homes, with the building currently having planning permission from 2015 to add three floors and 34 homes.
  
  
• Fabrix is to place the 139,500 sq ft three-storey former Blackfriars Crown Court up for sale to settle its debt on the building, which it acquired from HM Courts & Tribunal Service in 2019. The developer secured planning permission from Southwark Council in 2020 to construct six additional floors adding up to 270,000 sq ft of mixed-use office, retail and hospitality space plus a 1.1a ‘urban forest’ on a garden rooftop. The redevelopment has been paused following the scheme being placed into receivership in November 2023 over a loan from Motcomb Estates.

• Jock Lennox is to take over as Chair of Clarion Housing Group in July 2024, replacing outgoing Chair David Avery, who has served on the company’s Board for nine years.
  
  
• Former Lendlease director, Paul Sims, has joined Sir Robert McAlpine as new Operations Director.
  
  
• East West Rail Company’s Chief Executive, Beth West, has announced her departure after two years in the role. The former Landsec director will remain in post until the end of May while a new permanent CEO is recruited.
  
  
• Chief Executive of Telford Homes, Anne Kavanagh, is retiring after four decades in the property and real estate industry. The CBRE-owned developer is not appointing a replacement for Kavanagh, with the developer instead being overseen by David Neuman, President of Trammell Crow Company Europe.

• MP for Enfield Southgate Bambos Charalambous’s suspension from the Labour Party has been lifted following a ‘thorough investigation’ into allegations of misconduct.
  
  
• Leader of the Opposition on Sutton Council, Cllr Tom Drummond, has been selected as the Conservatives’ candidate for Sutton and Cheam following the decision of Paul Scully to not seek re-election. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have shortlisted former London mayoral candidate and MEP Luisa Porritt and Sutton ward councillor Luke Taylor to contest the seat.

SUMMER OF SPORT

With the 44th London Marathon on Sunday set to see thousands of runners pounding the city’s streets, there are plenty of other sporting events taking place over the coming months for all to enjoy.

While our friends across La Manche will be hoping to be the centre of attention this summer, they certainly have a number of hurdles to clear before the Olympic Games start in Paris at the end of July. There are ongoing security concerns and worries about the water quality of the Seine (sound familiar?).

Our proximity to the French capital will come in handy then, especially for those in the market for luxury goods. As covered by the Standard, French retailers are concerned about the Games impacting the ability of their customers to shop in the capital, giving London the opportunity to swoop in as a viable alternative.  

London will also have more than enough sport, for those unable to make it to Paris: England take on Ireland at Twickenham in the Women’s Six Nations (20 April), rugby union’s EPCR Challenge Cup final (24 May) and Investec Champions Cup final (25 May) at Tottenham Hotspur, on a bumper Saturday 1 June, it’s the Champions League Final at Wembley and the Epsom Derby, FIH Hockey Pro League at Lee Valley Hockey and Tennis Centre (1-12 June), Major League Baseball at the London Stadium (8-9 June), Wimbledon (1-14 July), Diamond League Athletics at the London Stadium (20 July). For cricket fans, England’s men will be taking on Pakistan (30 May) and New Zealand (13 July) at the Oval and the West Indies at Lord’s (10 July), while England’s women will be playing New Zealand at the Oval and (13 July) New Zealand at Lord’s (17 July).

WE RECOMMEND

• Entering the NLA and the LDN Collective’s Reimagine London competition, with £10,000 up for grabs.
• London pips Geneva as most expensive city to build in.
• A new campaign, UnLandmarks, by Heatherwick’s Humanise and Uncommon Creative Studio reimagining six of the country’s favourite buildings as ‘boring, soulless buildings’, to get people talking about the quality of new development and the mental health impacts of boring buildings.
• Trowers and Hamlins’ Rethinking Regeneration report.
• Seaforth Land CEO Tyler Goodwin’s piece for the NLA on the Profit Agenda.
• Primrose Hill, a new song by two of the Beatles’ sons, James McCartney and Sean Ono Lennon.
• The Standard’s look at London’s best independent record shops.
• As summer approaches, City A.M.’s roundup of the best beer gardens in the capital. 

LONDON OF THE FUTURE

Avison Young is featured in this week’s Building Design – Co-MD for London, Kat Hanna comments on the transformation of the City of London and how it can remain resilient and innovative in periods of change. The piece draws inspiration from Kat’s chapter in the recently released book ‘London of the Future’ by The London Society, which she is also a Trustee of. Read the full piece here.

RACE FOR CITY HALL BLOG SERIES

With two weeks to go before Londoners go to the polls, LCA’s new Race for City Hall blog series has captured some of the key battleground issues which could affect the result of May’s vote. Here’s a roundup of our insights so far, with more still to come!

• Senior Advisor and LCA’s Founder Robert Gordon Clark setting the scene on this year’s contest.
• Partner and Board Director Chris Madel looks at the role of transport and major infrastructure in London’s policies.
• Director Jay Allan tackles the importance of regeneration in transforming London’s places.
• Also from our PEP team, Director Harriet Shone gives an account of her experience in London’s housing sector and the challenge for the next Mayor.
• Account Executive Peter Lord gives a highly topical review of the Mayor’s role in housing delivery.
• And in our latest blog, Associate Director Declan Bennett charts the relationship between the Mayor and the City of London Corporation.

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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