LDN Weekly – Issue 335 – 11 October 2024 – The 100 Days Reset Moment

THE 100 DAYS RESET MOMENT 

Dear Reader,

Ever since President Franklin D. Roosevelt launched a 100-day blitz against the Great Depression, the performance of all new governments is judged at the first three months milestone. 

And so Keir Starmer reaches his 100 days in Downing Street this weekend. Calm seas never made a good sailor, so said Roosevelt (who loved a quotable phrase) and the Prime Minister has certainly faced choppy waters since 4 July.  Leader of the Opposition must seem like steering a pedalo across the Serpentine, in comparison to being Prime Minister which, right now must feel more like skippering an Americas Cup team in a storm around Cape Horn.

Ongoing international events will have dominated a lot of Starmer’s time as PM but so much of the Labour government’s seasickness is due to waves generated by their own side. Stories about the initial stumbling response to the riots, politicians taking freebies, and a dysfunctional 10 Downing Street operation have filled the airwaves and column inches.

So, we find ourselves in the unique position of a government using the first 100 days moment as an opportunity to reset. Out goes Sue Gray, in comes a new Chief of Staff – his fourth since being Labour leader – plus a bolstered comms team to sharpen up messaging and the grid.

According to the Prime Minister’s spokesperson, this rejigging of his team is a sign Starmer “is always willing to make the changes that are necessary to move this project forward”. But it isn’t just a clearer articulation of Starmer’s project that is the problem, it’s that many fear there is no grand project, no big vision, and that the Prime Minister lacks a firm sense of what he wants to achieve with power.

If the current Government isn’t back on track soon, it could increasingly resemble the last. Blown off course, forced into repeated tactical short-term moves, using Budgets, Spending Reviews, King’s Speeches and the like as attempts to regain the initiative. Out the window goes the ambition to take long-term decisions that address the structural challenges facing the country.

The Government’s popularity has gone off a cliff at a time when there is no functioning opposition to hold them to account. While the Tory leadership race resembles the longest beauty contest in history, it’s now only three weeks until either Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch will face Starmer across the Despatch Box.

The mood at the recent Tory conference was reportedly buoyant – freed of the miserable shackles of office and revelling in Labour’s troubles. But it would be easy to get carried away, and it would be foolish if the Tories failed to make the most of this time in opposition to reflect on where the party goes next. Roosevelt once again captures this neatly: “it takes a long time to bring the past up to the present”.

If the new Conservative leader can quickly unify the party, move from internal politics on to really holding the Labour government to account, then things could go from bad to worse for Starmer.

But this is a big if, and as this week has shown, the remaining rump of Tory MPs have outdone themselves in cementing in the public’s minds that the party is terribly divided and appears more interested in playing games than adjusting to life as an effective opposition. Keir Starmer and his team may well be rubbing their hands together at this latest stroke of luck.

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

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POLITICS ROUNDUP 

Back, back, back again: With party conference season over, Parliament is back and the Government has certainly continued where it left off on housing and planning.

Legislation progression: Yesterday, Housing Secretary Angela Rayner introduced the Renters’ Rights Bill to the Commons for its second reading. The Bill, which aims to improve conditions and stability for tenants in the private rented sector, will now move to the Committee Stage.

New session, new information, new towns: Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook’s statement on the Government’s plans for New Towns shed more light on the flagship policy. Pennycook confirmed that the New Towns programme, as well as delivering wholly new developments, will also extend and regenerate existing towns.

Clarification: Pennycook also emphasised that New Towns would need to be ‘well-connected, sustainable, and equipped with the necessary infrastructure and amenities’, targeting 40% of the homes being affordable, with an emphasis on social rented homes. The New Towns Taskforce, set up to provide recommendations on proposed locations for the New Towns, is due to report back by summer 2025.

Lights, camera, action: Continuing the summer of ministerial interventions, Housing Secretary Angela Rayner has recovered the appeal for the Marlow Film Studio plans which were rejected by Buckinghamshire County Council earlier this year. In a letter to the developer, Rayner justifies the intervention on the basis of the proposals being a ‘development of major importance having more than local significance’.

Site sensitivities: Being on the site of a former quarry and landfill on the greenbelt outside Marlow, the scheme drew criticism from environmental campaigners. The applicant, Marlow Film Studios, claims the facility would provide £3.2bn in investment in the local area, in addition to 4,000 jobs and boost the UK’s position within the film industry.

Plot twist: As for the Opposition, in the Conservative leadership contest, the candidates were whittled down to the final two yesterday. In a shock result, James Cleverly was eliminated after a vote of Conservative MPs, leaving Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick as the final two contenders. It will now be down to party members to vote, with the result to be announced on 2 November.

(Another) intervention: Meanwhile, in the capital, for the second time in two weeks, Deputy Mayor for Planning Jules Pipe has granted permission for a controversial scheme in South West London. This time, it’s the new phase of Barratt London and STEP’s Springfield Village development in the Mayor’s very own Tooting. While the local (Labour) Wandsworth Council rejected the application, is City Hall overturning the decision yet more evidence of a new approach to planning now there is an interventionist Labour Government breathing down the GLA’s neck?

And a resignation: Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime Sophie Linden has resigned after eight years in the role. Linden will be joining the Ministry of Justice as a senior adviser to Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Linden is the second Deputy Mayor to depart since Khan’s re-election in July, following the exit of environment lead, Shirley Rodrigues. City Hall has said that Linden’s successor will be announced in due course.

REACHING THE SUMMIT 

Go Fund It - dubbed Starmer’s ‘Mini Davos’, 300 business leaders along with the Prime Minister, Chancellor and other members of the cabinet are coming together on Monday for the UK’s Investment Summit.

Whisper it – while the summit was a first 100-day commitment, the government misses this by 48 hours.

Big wigs – due to attend are former Google boss Eric Schmidt, GSK CEO Dame Emma Walmsley, Blackrock’s Larry Fink, plus chief executives from other leading businesses and sovereign wealth funds as well as Metro Mayors and leaders from the devolved nations.

Goalden opportunity – also speaking, former England football manager Gareth Southgate

Come Dine With Us – what with drinks the night before at Lancaster House, the Guildhall rumoured to be hosting the summit, followed by a dinner at St Paul’s Cathedral… the Government is clearly going all out on the charm offensive.

Absent – X/Tesla boss Elon Musk (his recent social media activity deemed a reputational risk) and an Investment Minister, with no one yet given the responsibility in their brief.

Focus – the aim, in the words of the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, is to “showcase Britain is back as a stable place to do business, helping to secure the private investment needed to make every part of our country better off”.

Code - In other words, persuade wealthy private investors to pay for things the government can’t afford but would love to do. And with the recent report from former Legal & General boss Sir Nigel Wilson calling for £1tn of investment to kickstart higher growth, it is quite the bill that needs footing.

Shopping list – there’s no shortage of needy projects …. Lower Thames Crossing (£9bn), HS2 Birmingham-Manchester Metro Mayors proposal (circa £20bn), Sizewell C Nuclear Power Station (£20bn), affordable housebuilding plan for London (£54bn), new National Grid (£8bn)…

What to watch for – Ministers will be desperate for eye-catching announcements to boost the success of the summit and the Office of Investment is rumoured to be in line for beefing up and rebranding to InvestUK. Others have gently pointed out the odd timing of the summit, coming as it does just two weeks before a Budget at which briefings suggest there could be tax changes that could undermine investment decisions.

Year Zero – this isn’t the first Investment Summit, with the previous Government wooing business in 2023. That time, Elon Musk did attend!

• Planning permission has been granted for 449 new homes, 220 of which will be affordable, to be built at Tooting’s Springfield Village development. The development by Barratt will also include an extra 2.7 acres of public open space at Springfield Park. The plans were previously rejected by Wandsworth Council.
  
  
• Housing Secretary Angela Rayner has recovered an appeal for plans for a £750m film studio in Buckinghamshire. The development was rejected by Buckinghamshire County Council in May.
  
  
• Plans by Native Land and Shorea Capital for the redevelopment of the former Lipton Tea Company headquarters have been unveiled. The office retrofit project is targeting a BREEAM Excellent rating, with 70% of the building being retained or restored.
  
  
• Plans have been submitted for a new 200 home development, 50% of which will be affordable, called Selby Urban Village in Haringey. The plan was designed for Haringey Council in partnership with the Selby Trust. The 1.58ha site will also include 6,500m² of new indoor sports facilities, a revamped community park, as well as community, retail and workspaces.
  
  
• Westminster City Council is expected to grant planning permission next week for plans by The Other Group to covert the former Belgravia Police Station into a 206-room luxury hotel, including a spa, restaurant and bar.
  
  
• Multiplex has been appointed to deliver CO-RE and Mitsubishi Estate’s redevelopment of the former ITV headquarters on the South Bank, following the departure of Lendlease. The plans, which were granted planning permission by former Housing Secretary Michael Gove in February, are currently facing a judicial review by local group Save Our South Bank. The proposals include the delivery of two new office buildings, restaurants, retail and cultural space. 
  
  
• Hines and Lipton Rogers will be seeking a construction partner for the 18 Blackfriars scheme from next month, with the contract expected to be worth at least £900m. The plans, which were granted permission earlier this year, include two residential buildings of 40 and 22 storeys providing 433 homes (40.5% affordable), an office building of 45 storeys and will be net zero carbon in operation.
  

• Chief financial officer Alan Foster has been appointed as interim chief executive of HS2 Ltd. Mark Wild, former CEO of Crossrail, was announced as the new head of the project in May, but is currently working his year-long notice period at SGN.
  
  
• Andy Martin has been appointed as the new chair of the Creative Land Trust.
  
  
• Waqar Ahmed has announced that he will be stepping down as L&Q’s Executive Group Director by the end of the current financial year.
  
  
• Former chief executive of Metropolitan Thames Valley Housing, Geeta Nanda, has been appointed as a non-executive director of the newly formed Barratt Redrow.
  
  
• SEGRO has appointed Rich Corbridge as the company’s new chief information officer.
  
  
• Former Greenwich Council leader Danny Thorpe has stood down as a councillor after 20 years at the town hall.
  
  
• Cushman and Wakefield has hired Rupert Bridgman from Knight Frank as a partner in the company’s UK lease advisory team.
  
  
• Mace CEO for construction, Andrew Jackson, has left the company for personal reasons.
  
  
• Lord Ouseley of Peckham Rye, who amongst many senior roles over a long career, worked at the GLA, was Chief Executive of the London Borough of Lambeth and the Inner London Education Authority, has died aged 79.

A CLEAR PATH AHEAD 

Ready for take-off: the new Labour Government has set its sights high with an ambitious 10-year infrastructure strategy. With a Chancellor willing to unlock tens of billions in funding by changing the fiscal rules and a Housing Secretary ready to challenge local authorities to get major projects off the ground, could this kickstart some of London’s significant infrastructure schemes?

Back on Track? this week we heard encouraging news that HS2 will likely terminate at Euston (and not Old Oak Common) as originally planned, alongside discussions of a ‘HS2-light’ route between Birmingham and Manchester going ahead. We wait with bated breath for the Government to finally get their cheque book out…

Runway for Growth: also in the spotlight this week is aviation. With London’s airports already handling a record 168 million passengers in 2023, there are ambitious plans to expand capacity by an additional 83.5 million by the mid-2040s – an increase equal to adding another Heathrow!

London is flying high! the capital is the world’s busiest aviation city, and its five airports are classified as Level 3 by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) which means demand significantly outstrips capacity. Low-cost carriers are driving growth across Europe so the need for more space and infrastructure is urgent with Ryanair alone aiming to increase its UK traffic by 14% to 65m passengers annually by 2030.

Government on board: the new Government is generally in favour of airport expansions taking off, so long as they meet four tests of delivering growth, meeting climate obligations, and complying with both noise and air pollution considerations. Satisfying all four of these conditions simultaneously will certainly be the ultimate test of even the finest political spinners…
 

Waiting for clearance: Angela Rayner’s decision to grant permission for London City Airport’s capacity won’t have gone unnoticed and has led to a burst of activity by the capital’s other airports, keen to exploit the new Government’s enthusiasm for getting Britain building. Gatwick, Heathrow, Stansted, Luton, and City all aim to increase capacity over the next two decades, with Gatwick’s ambition to utilise its Northern Runway, Luton’s proposal for a new terminal, and Heathrow’s long-debated third runway.

Turbulence ahead: the Mayor of London – along with several local councils in West London and neighbouring Surrey and Berkshire - has historically opposed expanding London airports and so could be at loggerheads with the more proactive national Government. Could the Mayor, in the same way that he no longer mentions his previous opposition to development on the Green Belt, similarly remain tight-lipped on airport expansion?

Fasten your seatbelts: with the IATA forecasting global air passenger numbers to double from 4 billion in 2019 to 8 billion by 2040, it’s clear that we can’t afford to leave expansion plans grounded. If London is to remain competitive as a global hub for business and tourism, expanding airport capacity could be a crucial factor.

WE RECOMMEND

• London’s luxury hotel boom.
• 18 ways we could instantly improve London – if only we bothered.
• Car boot sales are cool again! Where to go in London for the best designer clothes, homeware, and vinyl.
• Revealed: all the tube station that are also listed buildings.

TWO IN ONE 

Not one, but two LCA’s clients graced the pages of Tuesday’s Metro Neighbourhood Watch, spotlighting the best new and forthcoming residential offerings in the Royal Borough of Greenwich.

Knight Dragon’s ambitious 30-year project at Greenwich Peninsula has been recognised as a top place to live and visit. The development is redefining the area as a vibrant hub for art, culture, and modern living, with a shared aim to transform Greenwich Peninsula into a thriving community with a rich blend of residential, commercial, and cultural spaces.

Berkeley Group’s Kidbrooke Village, Royal Arsenal Riverside, and upcoming Lombard Square developments also featured. These projects are celebrated for their thriving communities, vibrant urban spaces, and the exciting neighbourhoods they are creating. Each development is designed to offer residents a unique blend of modern living with a strong sense of community.

The LCA team is proud to support these ambitious projects and look forward to seeing their continued impact on the Greenwich borough.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO DO TO FIX BUSINESS RATES 

Our client, Avison Young, was featured in City A.M advocating for a business rates reform. David Jones, Managing Director of Business Rates at Avison Young, called on the government to be bold and commit to delivering a tax rate of 40p as the primary goal over the next five years. In the piece, which LCA secured in City A.M, David urged Labour to push ahead with a 2026 rating revaluation to drive down the Uniform Business Rate to below 44p and proposed a set of affordable and deliverable solutions that will simplify the relief system and reduce administrative burdens, while targeting relief effectively. 

 A GLIMPSE INTO LONDON’S FUTURE  

Yesterday, LCA’s client Lendlease hosted The Future is Now, in collaboration with the London Legacy Development Corporation (LLDC) and Here East. LCA coordinated media visits to the event, which was packed with insightful sessions from the creative minds behind Sadler's Wells, the V&A, ABBA Voyage, and UCL – a showcase of the flourishing creative diversity in East London. A standout moment was a lively debate between George Osborne and Ed Balls, who both praised Stratford as ‘the most outstanding regeneration project in Western Europe’. Read Matthew Steenhoek’s and Gavin Poole’s opinion piece in City AM.

In other Lendlease news, LCA managed the launch of renowned British artist Ryan Gander OBE RA’s first permanent public artwork in London, in Elephant Park, Elephant & Castle. The commission consists of six life-sized bronze sculptures, created in collaboration with children from three local primary schools, the South London Gallery, and the Contemporary Art Society. The sculptures for Elephant Park depict children dressed in imaginative costumes, unconstrained by tradition or convention. Check them out if you are in the area!

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Ben Donson

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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