LDN Weekly – Issue 320 – 12 June 2024 – Manifesto Mania

MANIFESTO MANIA

Dear Reader,

Today’s LDN is sandwiched between the publication of party manifestos. We have had the Lib Dems, the Tories, the Greens and a surprise one from the SDP (remember them?).  We highlight some key points in today’s edition. Tomorrow comes Labour’s and we will do a deep dive into this shortly, given the probability of a Labour government come 5 July. 

On a personal level this is my 11th general election as a voting adult, and my 9th as someone actively involved in politics. Thinking back through the myriad of manifestos, interviews, PR stunts, awful moments, polls and protests, what observations, if any, can I make?

First, the drip feed of policy announcements, in advance of the manifestos, appears to have increased markedly, especially from the incumbent party, and become more 'micro' (potholes being the latest). The consequence of this daily dose of promises is that it has made it harder to frame an overall vision - more 'campaigning in prose rather than poetry', when it really should be the other way around. 

Secondly, Lib Dem leader Ed Davey has taken the stunt strategy to a whole new level in a very stark, perhaps deliberate, contrast to the highly cautious “small target” approach of Keir Starmer and the monotonous 'we have a clear plan' approach of Rishi Sunak. Whether this will result in a significant increase of Lib Dem MPs remains to be seen.

Third, social media has of course made the advent of 24-hour news (BBC launched in 1997) look like very old hat. It’s interesting to see how much traction Davey’s stunts have had – he’s gone 'viral' – and how Labour have recently embraced TikTok.

Fourth, the televised debate format has moved on, but not well. The 45 second rule in ITV’s recent debate really didn’t foster good discussion and the first head-to-head between Starmer and Sunak was so tetchy it started to remind me of Trump v Clinton 2016. However, Nick Robinson’s 30-minute set piece with Sunak did at least allow for some more detailed discussion and I for one will watch the other six with interest. 

Fifth, the polls have become an obsession for many (including me), fuelled by the immediacy of X (apparently it used to be called Twitter). I was interested to read that they ban polls for the last week of a general election in South Korea.  Such an approach would certainly free up airtime to focus on policy analysis and less on which pollsters might get it right.

And finally, the voice of impartial experts has grown and we now, sadly, have to have 'fact checkers'. Hardly a day goes by without hearing the dulcet tones of Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) opine on taxes, Sir John Curtice on swings and possible majorities and someone from the media telling us if a statement by a politician is true or not (no wonder our trust in politicians has reached a new low). 

We still have three more weeks to go. Yet despite this being my 9th election and an assumption Labour will win, I still get obsessed. And so, on election night, I will be with my good friend Professor Tony Travers at the LSE as the results start to pour in and then back to the office for an all-nighter.

Robert Gordon Clark

Partner & Senior Advisor

Tailor Your Experience

At LCA, we believe in catering our insights to your specific interests. Choose the content that aligns with your needs and stay informed about the areas that matter most to you.

CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP

Three weeks tomorrow: We are now three days into the election campaign’s manifesto week, with the Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and Greens having published theirs so far. Labour will be launching their manifesto tomorrow and we will be sure to bring you everything you need to know in next week’s edition.

Conservatives: Yesterday the Conservatives launched their manifesto, headline pledges including: a cut to national insurance, a ‘triple lock plus’ on pensions, the increase of the child benefit threshold and a recommitment to the Rwanda policy. As for housing and planning, the Tories have pledged to deliver 1.6m new homes over the next parliament by building on urban and brownfield land, as well as establishing a scheme to help more first-time buyers on to the housing ladder with a 5% deposit. In inner London they pledge to raise density levels to the same as Paris and Barcelona (a promise which seems hard to imagine).

Lib Dems: In their election manifesto ‘For A Fair Deal’, the party pledges £8bn of investment in the NHS, pledges to reach net zero by 2045 and to rejoin the Single Market. As for the built environment, the party aims to deliver 380,000 homes a year in new garden cities and through community-led development of cities and towns, powers to end Right to Buy, plus the abolition of residential leaseholds and Section 21 no-fault evictions. As we are now accustomed to, the launch was accompanied by another media stunt, with Ed Davey and his team spending some time at Thorpe Park.

Greens: The Green Party launched their manifesto this morning, pledging to raise £70bn from tax reforms to fund policies including investing an additional £50bn a year in health and social care. Unsurprisingly housing is central to the Greens’ manifesto, pledging to deliver 150,000 social homes a year, introduce rent controls and launch a local-authority-led retrofit programme. They also propose the re-nationalisation of the rail and water companies.

Housing in the spotlight: While Labour’s manifesto launch isn’t set to take place until tomorrow, last week the party set out its stall on housing and planning with a visit to LCA client Related Argent’s Brent Cross Town development, including: making permanent the mortgage guarantee scheme to help first-time buyers onto the housing ladder (the policy will be called ‘Freedom to Buy’), delivering ‘attractive’ Edwardian-style mansion blocks and tree-lined streets of townhouses, working in ‘lock step’ with developers to deliver 1.5m new homes, offering local residents ‘first dibs’ on new homes and taxing foreign buyers to fund the hiring of 300 new planning officers in a bid to speed up the planning process. 

Gaffes: The Prime Minister was forced to apologise last week after he came under criticism for leaving D-Day commemoration events early, while Sunak has also been continuing to defend his comments about Labour’s tax plans, despite the Office for Statistics Regulation saying that politicians should ‘avoid misleading or confusing people’ when making numerical claims about policies. Following the broadcast of an interview with ITV last night, Sunak has been called out of touch after saying that as a child he had to ‘go without’ Sky TV.

Defensive strategy: The Times has mapped which seats the two main parties have been visiting, showing that the Conservatives are banking on a defensive strategy by so far campaigning in constituencies seats where they have comfortable majorities, rather than marginal ones.

Candidates: At over 4,500, there are a record number of candidates standing at this election, a 35.7% increase compared to 2019. Before the close of nominations on Friday, there continued to be some tension over candidate selections, with Conservative Party members in Basildon and Billericay saying that it was a ‘slap in the face’ that chairman Richard Holden, who was previously the MP for North West Durham, was the only candidate for the safe seat. Meanwhile, former London Mayoral candidate Count Binface has confirmed that he will be standing against the Prime Minister in Richmond and Northallerton.

Demands: So, what do organisations want out of the next government? Campaign group Generation Rent has called for the abolition of Section 21 no fault evictions, limits to rent increases and the delivery of more affordable homes. The G15 group of housing associations has said that the next government must prioritise housing, including providing adequate support for registered providers. BusinessLDN has recommended that to boost growth, whoever forms the next government should review London’s green belt, back the expansion both of airports and international rail hubs, as well as put the capital on an even footing with other ‘trailblazer’ devolution deals already in place elsewhere in England.  

SEATS TO WATCH 

New constituency boundaries, 2019 notional results

A Barnet Trio: Three neighbouring suburban North London seats are key battlegrounds in the coming election, with Labour pouring considerable resources into capturing Tory-held Chipping Barnet, Finchley & Golders Green and Hendon. With Labour winning control of Barnet Council at the 2022 local elections, and with Sadiq Khan receiving the highest ever Labour vote in Barnet & Camden in May’s Mayoral elections, the bookies currently favour all three seats turning red.

Hendon:  Labour held the seat from 1997-2010 before Tory Dr Matthew Offord won in 2010 – however, Offord isn’t standing again this time. Minor boundary changes give the seat a notional Tory majority of 3,661, with the party selecting Harrow councillor Ameet Jogia, who is campaigning on crime and policing and against tall buildings and over-development. For Labour, David Pinto-Duschinksy fights the seat again, having stood in 2019, and needs a swing of 4% to gain the seat.  

Chipping away:  Since the seat was created in 1974, Chipping Barnet has only ever returned Conservative MPs, with leading NIMBY Theresa Villiers representing the area since 2005. From a majority of 12,000 in 2010, Villers held on in 2017 by just 353 votes, increasing this slightly to 1,212 two years later. Boundary changes are, on paper at least, slightly more favourable to the Tories this time round. 

Barnet Fair:  Villiers goes again for the Tories, facing former Tower Hamlets Labour Councillor Dan Tomlinson. Villiers has pursued a strong anti-development line over recent years, including fighting TfL’s plans to build homes on Cockfosters station carpark, something she said would turn the suburbs into East Berlin. But demographic change and with the Tory struggles more generally in London, Labour need a 3.6% swing to capture the seat. 

Finchley & Golders Green:  Margaret Thatcher once represented a predecessor of this seat, but since the new constituency was created in 1997 both Labour and Conservative have won here. Red between 1997 and 2010, since then Tory Mike Freer has represented the constituency. In 2019, Freer came out top with a majority of 6,562 over Lib Dem (and former Labour MP) Luciana Berger. 

New faces:  Freer isn’t standing again, citing threats against him as a reason behind his decision – his office having been subjected to an horrific arson attack. For the Tories, former City of London Corporation common councillor and political consultant Alex Deane fights the seat. Facing him is Labour’s Sarah Sackman – an environmental barrister – who previously stood here in 2015 before sitting out the 2017 and 2019 elections during Labour’s Corbyn years (in what looks like a wise decision). Labour need a 9.7% swing, and with the constituency’s sizeable Jewish population, a win here and Starmer will see it as vindication for his transformation of the party in recent years. 

LCA’s view:  Given the size of Labour’s poll leads, it is hard to see beyond Labour taking Hendon and Chipping Barnet, with Theresa Villiers’ luck finally running out. Finchley and Golders Green is a bigger ask for Labour – in any normal election, the swing would be out of reach for the party, but as things stand right now – and with a previously large Lib Dem vote to squeeze through tactical voting – even this seat looks likely to flip red on 4 July. 

• Dominus has secured planning permission from the City of London Corporation to convert a nine-storey, 55,817 sq ft office building at Great Tower Street into a 237-room boutique hotel. The plans include a three-storey extension and improvements to the building’s environmental credentials while retaining 70% of the current structure and façade.
  
  
• Gamuda Berhad and Castleforge Partners’ plans to redevelop the 12-storey former UK headquarters of Deutsche Bank at London Wall have been approved by the City of London Corporation. The developers propose increasing the floorspace of the building by 40% up to 688,000 sq ft while retaining 89% of the building’s existing built fabric to minimise whole-life carbon emissions. The redeveloped building will include a new cultural forum on the ground floor and around 1,100 sq ft of additional public realm.
  
  
• John Lewis Partnership has appealed against Ealing Council’s non-determination of its plans to deliver a 428-home (19% affordable) Build-to-Rent scheme in West Ealing. Backed by a £500m investment from abrdn, the plans were first submitted in June 2023 and include the development of four buildings between 10 and 19 storeys, which have been opposed by local campaign group Stop the Towers. The application will now be examined by the Planning Inspectorate for determination.
  
  
• The Mayor of London has formally objected at the public inquiry into Reselton Properties’ proposed 1,075-home (7.5% affordable) redevelopment of the Stag Brewery site in Mortlake, citing its low percentage of affordable homes. Before the GLA could issue a decision, Reselton appealed against the GLA’s non-determination of the application, with a final decision yet to be determined. The Mayor of London called-in and rejected the developer’s previous plans for the site in 2022 which proposed 15% affordable homes.
  
  
• Redbridge Council has approved plans to deliver a new public lido in Valentines Park, Ilford. As part of the council’s wider £11m redevelopment of leisure facilities, the new lido includes an outdoor six-lane 25m swimming pool, splash pad and changing areas, along with a community café, dance studio and gym. Bathers will have to wait until autumn 2025 to take a dip.
  
  
• AXA IM Alts has unveiled its plans for a new 40-storey office building at St Mary Axe, demolishing two 1980s office buildings on the site. The building includes a cultural and educational offer, as well as a new public park connecting to Camomile Street. The developer is expected to submit plans to the City of London Corporation later this year.
  
  
• Amro Partners has unveiled plans for a ‘highly sustainable’ 500-home (35% affordable) Build-to-Rent and co-living scheme next to Sutton train station. The plans involve the demolition of a vacant 200,000 sq ft office building which has been earmarked for redevelopment since Amro purchased the site in 2022.

• Old Oak and Park Royal Development Corporation (OPDC) has appointed Marianne Brook as a new Development Director. Brook joins from Deloitte where she led on investment and land ownership agreements, including for OPDC’s development of Old Oak.
  
  
• Former CEO of Galliard Homes, Don O’Sullivan, has been appointed as Chief Executive of Battersea Power Station Development Company, joining from Rosfenos.
  
  
• Peter Reilly is stepping down as Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer at JP Morgan Asset Management after 25 years with the firm. Reilly is to serve as a Senior Adviser to the firm with Deputy Chief Executive Michael Ramm appointed as his successor.
  
  
• Director of Capital Projects at The Crown Estate, Dom Gabriele, has left the company after six years.
  
  
• Tony Horrell, Chief Executive of Colliers UK and Ireland, is stepping down next year, retiring after 14 years with the agency and a 40-year career in real estate.
  
  
• Executive Managing Director at Wates Construction, Paul Chandler, is to leave the business after seven years as the company carries out a management restructure. Chandler, who joined Wates in 2017 after a three-decade career with Skanska, is to be replaced by the division’s managing director, Steff Battle.
  
  
• Social housing provider Home Group has appointed Colette Flattery as its new Director of Customer Experience, supporting the company’s ambitions to enhance its resident-focused services. She joins from car fleet management company Zenith.
  
  
• Chair of EY Hywel Ball is to step down after more than 40 years with the audit and consulting firm. A successor is to be selected in the second half of this year.
  

WE RECOMMEND

• What a Labour election victory could mean to the prospect of planning reforms.
• The Observer’s deep dive into bold and ‘experimental’ urban regeneration in Sunderland.
• Naturalist Stephen Moss on the noisy presence of London’s parakeets.
• The Telegraph’s bellwether seat study of Carshalton and Wallington where ‘centrist dads’ hold the balance of power.
• ConservativeHome’s Henry Hill on Labour’s proposals for housing design and building regulations.
• OnLondon’s Richard Brown on the Conservatives’ manifesto pledges for housing in London.
• A look at the designs for the UK’s first permanent HIV/AIDS memorial.

LABOUR LAUNCHES HOUSING STRATEGY AT BRENT CROSS TOWN

We were delighted to support Related Argent last Friday as they hosted Sir Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner and Mayor of London Sadiq Khan at Brent Cross Town to launch the Labour Party’s policy to help first time buyers onto the property market. 

Progress is well underway at Brent Cross Town for a new 180-acre mixed-use park town, which over the next 15 years will create 6,700 new homes (930 of which are currently being built), a new high street, workspace for 25,000 people in a 3m sq ft business and innovation district, new buildings for three schools and 50 acres of parks and playing fields.

 Photo courtesy of The Labour Party

PLANS APPROVED TO OPEN ‘SECRET’ LONDON TUNNELS TO THE PUBLIC 

Yesterday the City of London Corporation resolved to grant planning consent for ‘The London Tunnels’, a £220m project that seeks to open to the public for the first time a series of deep-underground tunnels below High Holborn that were kept secret by Government for over 70 years. First dug as WWII bomb shelters, they were at one point home to MI6, the ‘hotline’ that connected the Kremlin to the White House during the Cold War and the deepest licensed bar in the country – 40 meters below the surface. James Bond author, Ian Fleming, worked in the tunnels in the 1950s and it is believed they formed the inspiration for ‘Q Branch’.

LCA is pleased to have helped support this phenomenal project, leading on all aspects of consultation and media engagement, as well as curating and launching the project’s social media channels. In helping to generate significant support and investment for the project, we have secured hundreds of pieces of coverage across national and international press, including the New York Times, Bloomberg, and CNN. Spanning across two boroughs, the project will now go before Camden Council’s planning committee for final approval later this summer. 

 Photo courtesy of The London Tunnels Ltd 

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

Follow Us for More 

We hope you enjoy this edition and if you don't already, do follow us on LinkedIn and Instagram. You can also visit our website for more information on LCA’s team, services, and clients.

And finally, a technical note: If you like hearing from us, make sure to add ldn@londoncommunications.co.uk to your contacts or ‘safe sender’ list – this will help ensure LDN lands in your inbox.