Landslide? A trio of MRP polls have landed in the last few days. First up, Electoral Calculus, which predicts Labour could secure a whopping 476 seats, with the Conservatives left on just 66, just seven seats ahead of the Lib Dems.
Round two: The second came from YouGov, which showed Labour winning 422 seats, the Conservatives on 140 and the Lib Dems on 48 – with 12 current ministers forecast to lose their seats.
Triple threat: Survation completes the trio, with Labour projected to secure a majority of 324, way in excess of anything seen since the 1930s. According to the analysis, Labour would be on 487 seats, the Conservatives on 71 and the Lib Dems will be on 43.
London blues: Of the 75 seats in the capital, YouGov is projecting 65 seats for Labour, six for the Lib Dems and just four for the Conservatives, while Survation has the Conservatives on just three, the Lib Dems on four and Labour on 68.
Nuclear war versus war on woke: While we await the party manifestos, early skirmishes on policy saw Labour and Conservatives kicking off the week on two very different topics. The Prime Minister announced the Conservatives’ pledge to rewrite the Equality Act to ‘protect women and girls’, while Labour focused on defence and security. Keir Starmer faced the traditional question all Labour leaders are asked during election campaigns – is he prepared to press the big red button (clue: he confirmed he is).
Crime fighting: The parties have also both set out their stall on crime, with Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper pledging a ‘Blair-style approach’ in tackling street crime and the Conservatives announcing new plans to combat anti-social behaviour and fly tipping.
High energy: Labour have unveiled further details on their plans to set up Great British Energy, a publicly-owned clean energy company based in Scotland that will help tackle the cost of living crisis by reducing energy costs. In response, Rishi Sunak dismissed Labour’s plan as just ‘a logo’. In a blow to Sadiq Khan’s ambitions to take over London’s commuter rail services, Labour appears to have ruled out such a move.
Crashing the party: Reform’s Nigel Farage dramatically u-turned, confirming he was both party leader (again) and would also stand as a candidate (again) this time in the Essex seat of Clacton. The Conservatives were quick out the traps announcing an annual cap on migration if re-elected. The Telegraph has estimated that Reform could pose a threat to the Conservatives in 28 seats in the North and Midlands, with The Times suggesting Farage’s return places even more Tory seats in the vulnerable category.
Head-to-head: Sunak and Starmer took part in the first head-to-head debate of the election campaign last night, watched by 4.8m people. According to one snap poll of those watching, Starmer ‘won’ the debate (44%, versus 39% who favoured Sunak). Yet YouGov’s equivalent poll saw Sunak narrowly edging it (51% to 49%). Whether the debates move public opinion enough to close Labour’s considerable poll lead is yet to be seen, but Sunak will probably be the happier of the two, with Labour likely to be worried that the alleged £2,000 pa tax hike attack line from the Tories might just stick.
Labouring over selections: Labour now has an (almost) full slate of candidates after recent internal struggles over selections in some key seats. In the last week, some well-known figures from Labour local government in London are looking to make the transition into national politics. Leader of Camden Council and Chair of London Councils Georgia Gould will contest Queen’s Park & Maida Vale (with her cabinet colleague Danny Beales standing one again in Uxbridge & South Ruislip); Deputy Mayor of Newham, James Asser, fights West Ham & Beckton; and Deputy Leader of Ealing Deirdre Costigan is Labour’s candidate in Ealing Southall. In addition, former Starmer and Sadiq Khan staffer and 2015 General Election candidate in Harrow East, Uma Kumaran, fights the new Stratford and Bow seat, with relative unknown Calvin Bailey – the subject of a profile in the Guardian – chosen for Leyton & Wanstead.
Trouble out East: Brent Council Deputy Leader Shama Tatler takes on Chingford and Woodford Green, following the blocking of previous candidate Faiza Shaheen, who has subsequently resigned from the Labour Party citing “a hierarchy of racism” and who has announced this afternoon that she is to stand as an independent – this in a seat held by Tory Iain Duncan Smith by just 1,600 votes. Over in Barking, Labour’s candidate (and local council leader) Darren Rodwell withdrew at the last minute following a serious accusation. In a statement on his Twitter (later deleted), Rodwell strenuously denied the accusation and also said that there was no active investigation into the complaints against him. Leader of Enfield Nesil Caliskan was quickly unveiled as his replacement.
London focus: So far, the main party leaders have spent most of their time on the campaign trail beyond the M25, but both Sunak and Starmer were in the capital at the weekend. The Prime Minister door knocking in the Cities of London and Westminster and Starmer launching Labour’s battle bus in Uxbridge, location of last July’s narrow by-election loss. Labour has committed to rebuild four London hospitals - Hillingdon, St Mary’s, Whipps Cross and Charing Cross – should it win the election (although Wes Streeting struggled to remember which ones when being interviewed by Karl Mercer on BBC London).
Further afield: Beyond the south-west corner of London, much of the Liberal Democrat focus is on winning key seats across the Home Counties, with the hope of building a ‘yellow wedge’ of seats. The party launched a ‘Portillo Pot’ to help fund their efforts to unseat key cabinet ministers, including the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. In response, Hunt said the Conservatives will ‘defend the Blue Wall brick by brick’, with his own constituency of Godalming and Ash said to be on a ‘knife edge’.
Ticking Away: The parties are targeting younger voters hard, deploying digital campaigns through social media. Labour and the Tories are battling it out on TikTok, with a series of sassy interventions. Analysis suggests Labour is winning the battle, with their more light-hearted and eccentric videos having so far amassed almost 40 million views.
Stars of the show: Lib Dem leader Ed Davey is pursuing his own strategy of generating media coverage, with a string of campaign stunts including falling off a paddleboard into Windermere, hurtling down a waterslide and playing giant blue Jenga. It is easy to dismiss Davey’s antics, but he’s certainly brought more attention on his party than might otherwise have been the case, allowing him to showcase their policies on mental health, free school meals and social care – drawing on his own experience caring for his disabled son.
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