LDN Weekly – Issue 318 – 30 May 2024 – One down, five to go

Dear Reader,

In the blink of an eye, a week has flown by in the General Election campaign. Was it really only seven days ago that a rain-soaked Rishi Sunak appeared outside 10 Downing Street to fire the starting pistol in an election everyone anticipated but few expected?

After the first week, what can we conclude about the campaign so far? First of all, the polls haven’t budged much at all. While it has taken a few days for the polling companies to fully mobilise their operations, we are now starting to see multiple polls on a daily basis. So far, Labour is maintaining the comfortable double-digit lead it has held over the Tories for nearly two years, although the leads varies somewhat – in the last 24 hours alone, from 12 points to 27.

Second, the Conservatives did not get off to a good start, with a series of gaffes and missteps. Rishi Sunak taking a day off campaigning just three days in to gather with his advisers is unorthodox and almost certainly intended to be an attempt at a re-set. The following days saw core vote appealing policies announced on National Service and the pensions triple lock, designed to shore up the over 65s flirting with Reform. But Sunak has still faced attacks from his own side – not many Prime Ministers, in the midst of a General Election battle, have ever generated headlines denying they’ll leave the country if they lose the election.

Third, never underestimate Labour’s ability to shoot itself in the foot. While comfortably ahead in the polls, the dual problems of the futures of Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott have led to a few days of difficult headlines. Is this cock up or conspiracy? I’m in the former camp – forcing Corbyn to stand as an independent was clearly a strategic decision by Labour high command – the ultimate way of drawing a line under the Corbyn years. The party has sought to approach Diane Abbott in the same way it dealt with Corbyn – their treatment of her a signal to the party’s left wing – yet what has happened to Abbott feels unnecessary cruel and vindictive. Many moderate voices in the party have rightly criticised the events of the last 48 hours.

Fourth, despite Labour’s ‘best’ attempts to make London the focus of the election campaign with their selection problems in Islington and Hackney, the key battlegrounds lie beyond the M25. London has seen minimal focus so far from the party leaders – expect this to continue being the case for the rest of the campaign.

It is important to remember that we are still in the initial preliminary stage of the campaign. While election ready, the main parties were clearly not – in their own ways – anticipating the election happening now, banking instead on an Autumn poll. Hence the rush to select candidates and crank party machines in to life. The fact that the Conservatives – the party in whose gift it was to call the election – weren’t match fit, with reports of over 100 seats still without candidates, is pretty damning.

We are but in the foothills of the campaign. There are five weeks until polls open. Expect things to crank up a gear from early next week.

P.S.  It has been announced that the Evening Standard is to cease daily print production, shifting online and becoming a weekly paper. While some have speculated for a while that this was the direction of travel, to lose an iconic part of the city’s daily fabric is a sad moment for London. 

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP

Whizzing around: It didn’t take long for Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer to begin their election campaigns, taking in the delights Great British transport network from Glasgow to Cornwall. The Prime Minister kicked off his re-election campaign in an upstairs conference room at the ExCel Centre in Newham, while Starmer headed for Thurrock in Essex, followed by Gillingham in Kent. Sunak said his party had a ‘clear plan and bold action to chart a course to a secure future,’ while Starmer said it was a ‘chance to end the chaos, to turn the page and to rebuild Britain.’

Visits I: So far, Rishi Sunak has visited: Barry in Wales, Derby, Inverness, Belfast, Harrow, Wimbledon, Harpenden, Chesham, Stoke-on-Trent, Hinckley, and Penzance.

Visits II: Meanwhile, Keir Starmer has visited: Glasgow, Lancing in West Sussex, Brighton, Barnet, Leyland, Stafford, Derby, Worcester, and Stevenage.

St. Elsewhere: London is not featuring heavily in the current list of leaders’ visits. The capital is expected to be much less prominent in the campaign newsreels as Labour pushes for support in Scotland, the north of England and Midlands, as well as bellwether seats such as Nuneaton, Lincoln and both seats in Swindon. That being said, Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves did pop up in an Iceland supermarket in Chelsea and Fulham – a packet of fish fingers in the freezer a necessity for any election campaign.

Feast your eyes: For those less interested in watching politicians on ‘school trip-style’ visits around the country, Sunak and Starmer have agreed to their first TV debate: 4 June on ITV, moderated by Julie Etchingham. Football fans might be less pleased – the Lionesses’ game versus France shunted onto ITV4 to make way.

Big talk: Sunak’s three major pledges so far comprise: funding more apprenticeships through scrapping ’low-quality degrees’, a ‘triple lock plus’ on the state pension, and the controversial reintroduction of national service. Starmer is so far less keen to talk policy, although he has pledged to halve NHS waiting lists in five years and lower the voting age to 16 and 17-year-olds.

A splash of orange: The Liberal Democrats launched their campaign with a quintessential media moment from party leader and Kingston and Surbiton MP, Ed Davey, paddleboarding on Windemere. Davey is campaigning on sewage and the poor performances of water companies – not that this prevented him from taking a dip in Windermere, in full view of the assembled media.

TAKE YOUR SEATS, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN!

Are you sitting comfortably? London isn’t likely to be front and centre of the coming General Election campaign. But that’s not stopping London Labour from trying, seemingly intent on doing all it can, through a series internal wranglings and self-inflicted wounds, to grab the headlines for all the wrong reasons.

Hackney downs: It appears that long-standing MP for Hackney North & Stoke Newington, Diane Abbott, will not be Labour’s candidate at the coming election. Abbott has represented the area since her election in 1987 when she became Britain’s first black female MP. Having served as an independent since April 2023, reports are that Abbott had the Labour whip restored yesterday, with an agreement she would not stand at the election and retire with dignity. Yet someone lobbed in a hand grenade with a briefings to yesterday’s Times, meaning the plan unravelled, leaving Abbott unsurprisingly angry and upset. To add to the confusion, this afternoon Starmer denied Abbott had been blocked from standing. Where this leaves matters, with only days left before the official close of nominations, who knows….

Exit stage left: A flurry of last-minute departures includes a number of London Labour MPs. Ealing Southall’s Virendra Sharma, Leyton & Wanstead’s Jon Cryer and West Ham’s Lyn Brown all announced in the past couple of days they’re not standing. With candidate selection now in the hands of the party high command, expect all three plum seats – possibly alongside Hackney North – to be handed to favoured Labour sons and daughters in the coming days. 

From Queen’s Park to Beckton: These are on top of the two seats – Queen’s Park & Maida Vale and West Ham & Beckton – which are yet to have a Labour candidate. Much speculation about a head-to-head between neighbouring Westminster and Camden council leaders, Adam Hug and Georgia Gould, over the former with some reports Gould has come out on top. Eyeing up the latter are thought to be Newham councillors Terry Paul and James Asser as well as Assembly Member, Unmesh Desai. Islington Labour councillor Praful Nargund has been selected to face Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North.  

Exit stage right: Also announcing their departure is Bexleyheath & Crayford Tory MP, Sir David Evennett. First elected to parliament in 1983 (for the Erith & Crayford constituency), he lost his seat in 1997 before returning to parliament in 2005. With Evennett and Harriet Harman’s departures, the new House of Commons won’t have any London MPs elected prior to 1987. The recent announcements means there are now 15 sitting London MPs not standing at the coming election – 8 Tory, 7 Labour. Will it go higher still in the days ahead?

Poli-filler: By LDN’s assessment, the Conservatives still have 30 candidates to find in London (albeit these are mostly in unwinnable seats), while Labour has vacancies in six, all of which are plum seats with large notional majorities. With the Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee due to meet on 4 June to endorse the full slate of candidates, the coming days will be very frenzied as the jockeying for positions heats up. LDN will be doing our best to keep up with developments.

Bye bye elections: Reports are that Labour is pushing London councillors standing at the General Election to resign so that by-elections can be held on the 4 July. Given council leaders and cabinet members are among those standing for Parliament, there could be considerable churn in London local government in the immediate aftermath of the General Election. Two Labour councillors in Southwark not standing for Parliament have resigned and triggering by-elections.

• Secretary of State Michael Gove lifted the Article 31 holding direction on the City of London Corporation’s London Wall West plans. The scheme, approved by the City in April 2024, proposes demolishing the former Museum of London and Bastion House to deliver three new office buildings between five and 17 storeys, the provision of 8,182 sqm of cultural floorspace, a new Central Plaza off London Wall, and public realm alterations to improve connectivity.
  
  
• Meanwhile Sellar and Network Rail are making design changes to plans for the £1.5bn redevelopment of Liverpool Street station to ‘reflect City and stakeholder feedback.’ The controversial plans received over 2,200 objections, including from the Victorian Society, Historic England, and neighbouring Westminster and Hackney councils. The developers propose delivering a 20-storey tower containing 10 floors of office space, a six-floor hotel scheme and a 0.75 acre roof terrace with a swimming pool.
  
  
• Network Rail has submitted the industrial-led outline masterplan for the regeneration of the Bow Goods Yard on the Olympic Park to the London Legacy Development Corporation (LLDC). Situated on Strategic Industrial Land, Network Rail proposes retaining the site as a rail freight hub capable of handling up to 3.5m tonnes of freight, alongside up to 190,000 sqm in light and heavy industrial floorspace, with the flexibility to deliver up to 32,000 sqm of leisure and hospitality space.
  
  
• Criterion Capital’s plans to deliver a new residential scheme in East Greenwich, consisting of 564 homes (33% affordable) in three buildings of three, 23 and 35 storeys, have faced opposition from local residents over the height. Greenwich planning officers recommended the application be granted but the council’s Planning Board deferred a decision on 21 May so the developer could reconsider and ‘redistribute’ the height of the 35-storey tower. Ward councillor Rowshan Hannan (Labour) and the East Greenwich Residents Association have labelled the height of the scheme ‘ludicrous.’
  
  
• Barking and Dagenham’s regeneration company Be First is searching for a new development partner to take forward the next phase of its £1.8bn River Road regeneration. Be First secured planning permission in 2021 to deliver 6,253 homes and 3.1m sq ft of commercial floorspace, with the first phase of 156 affordable Build-to-Rent homes and 50,000 sq ft of light industrial space due for completion later in 2024.
  
  
• Rockwell Property has submitted revised plans to deliver a 34-storey, 142-home scheme (35% affordable) at Battersea Bridge, delivered through demolition of the existing six-storey Glassmill Building. The plans were withdrawn and scaled back following after a scoping report submitted to Wandsworth Council in January 2024 received 340 local objections to the plans for a 39-storey building with 170 homes and 743 sqm of office space.
  
  
• LandsecU+I has launched a second public consultation on its updated masterplan for Lewisham Shopping Centre. The developer proposes delivery of 1,700 new homes (15-20% affordable), a 700-bed student accommodation scheme, a new central park, and a replacement shopping centre in buildings up to 35 storeys.
  
  
• Redcliff Cap is consulting with Bromley Council to develop a new masterplan for the redevelopment of the Walnuts Shopping Centre, which it acquired in 2019 from Patrizia. Previous plans for the site, which included the demolition of buildings and the delivery of two towers of 19 and 24 storeys containing 990 homes (20% affordable), were withdrawn due to a strong opposition from the community.

• Former Chief Executive of Crossrail Mark Wild has been appointed as the new Chief Executive of HS2 Ltd. Wild was previously the Managing Director of London Underground and Chief Executive of Public Transport Victoria in Australia, and joins HS2 from Southern Gas Networks.
  
• CEO of abrdn Stephen Bird is to step down after four years in the role. He is to work with current Chief Financial Officer Jason Windsor, who is appointed as interim CEO, on a handover and succession plan until a replacement is found.
  
• Homes England has appointed five new non-executive directors to its board including Peter Vernon, Chair of Grosvenor Hart Homes and Senior Advisor at Places for London; Ros Kerslake, former Chief Executive of the National Lottery Heritage Fund; Cllr Abi Brown, Deputy Chair of the Local Government Association; David Cutter, former Group Chief Executive at Skipton Building Society; and Sir Oliver Letwin, former Conservative MP for West Dorset.
  
• Chief Executive of Helical, Gerald Kaye, is to step down in July after eight years in the role. Kaye, one of London’s most successful developers, has also been a member of the office group’s Board of Directors since 1994.
  
• Savills Investment Management has promoted its Head of ESG Emily Hamilton to lead as Chief Sustainability Officer. A former associate director at Grosvenor, Hamilton is to join the company’s group executive committee and lead on ‘real-world sustainability outcomes.’
  
• Lord Simon Stevens has been appointed as the new Chair of King’s College London’s Governing Council.

• LBC presenter and broadcaster Iain Dale has stepped down from presenting roles after 14 years to focus on his candidacy to become a Conservative MP in Tunbridge Wells. Dale has not been formally selected for the seat, which previously was held by former Secretary of State Greg Clark before his decision to stand down.
  
• Former Conservative MP for Twickenham, Tania Mathias, is standing as Theresa May’s successor in Maidenhead. Mathias held the south west London seat from 2015-17, unseating former Secretary of State and Leader of Liberal Democrats’ Vince Cable, before he retook the seat in the 2017 snap election.
  
• Labour has selected several London councillors to stand in seats in the capital and across the country. Redbridge’s Sunny Brar is standing in Hornchurch and Upminster while Andrew Achilleos from Barking and Dagenham Council is up for Romford. Donna Lumsden, also from Barking & Dagenham, is standing in West Dorset.
  
• South of the river, Lewisham’s Oana Olaru is standing in Bromley and Biggin Hill, while Jim Dickson from Lambeth is selected for Dartford. Meanwhile, Hillingdon councillor Tony Gill is the party’s candidate for Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, while former councillor in neighbouring Hounslow, Hanif Khan is up for Sleaford and North Hykeham in Lincolnshire. 

All’s well that ends well: When the Prime Minister stood out in the rain to announce the General Election, also rinsed were 16 live Government Bills stuck in the parliamentary process. However…

Peppercorn or pepper-torn? The Leasehold and Freehold Reform Bill did manage to get through its final stages and into law despite some hectic last minute negotiations between the Whips offices. LDN readers will recall the Bill being held up by the Treasury and Number 10 over the potential impact of ground rent reforms on pensions and investments. A proposed cap was dropped entirely but Labour peers were still in favour of getting it across the line – despite some wrecking attempts on the Tory backbenches. Labour were quick to make clear they remain committed to abolishing leasehold once and for all should they win on the 4 July.

Broken promises: Promises to ban no fault evictions stretch back to 2017 yet the legislation that would have delivered on this - the Renters Reform Bill – did not make it through wash up. Campaigners reacted with fury, with Renters Reform Coalition campaign manager Tom Darling called it the ‘death knell’ of the Conservative commitment to reforming the private rented sector. National Residential Landlords Association CEO Ben Beadle called it ‘hugely disappointing’, blaming the Bill’s collapse on ‘dither and delay’ in the Government. Just as with leasehold reform, Labour made hay with the government’s failures, and committed to deliver rental market reform their way if elected.

WE RECOMMEND

• The key seats to watch at the election (Clue: two are in Swindon).
• Research found that shoppers at all major supermarkets apart from Waitrose have swung to Labour from the Conservatives since 2019.
• Your watching habits may also indicate how you will vote at the election.
• What impact the Euros could have on the election.
• The Lord Mayor’s Hot Air Balloon Regatta, which will take place on three dates in July.
• For lovers of outdoor swimming in south-west London, good news as Tooting Bec Lido reopens.
• The country’s top 10 ‘at risk’ Victorian buildings.

FOUR WEEKS TO GO FOR THE INAUGURAL CREATIVE INDUSTRIES PROPERTY SUMMIT

You may have seen from recent issues of LDN that we are proudly partnering with Movers & Shakers Property Networking Forum on the first ever Creative Industries Property Summit, set to go live in less than four weeks on Wednesday 26 June 2024 at King’s Place, London!

The conference brings together influential leaders from the creative industries and property sector to collaborate and as agents for positive change across the built environment, recognising the significant role of the creative industries in London and the UK’s socio-economic growth. 

Book your tickets now and use the discount code LCA0705 to get tickets at members rate!

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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