LDN Weekly – Issue 317 – 24 May 2024 – Away They Go!

Dear Reader,

Many from the property sector, including a strong contingent from LCA, were in Leeds this week for UKREiiF. With the industry desperately craving stability, the looming General Election was already the hot discussion topic up in West Yorkshire.

Yet I doubt that few people, until rumours starting swirling at lunchtime on Wednesday, anticipated events moving quite as quickly as they did. Rishi Sunak emerged from 10 Downing Street after 5pm, with the news electrifying delegates – all just in time to bring added buzz to LCA’s Opportunity London drinks. Turns out that Housing Minister Lee Rowley’s final speaking engagement in the role could well have been LCA’s UKREiiF dinner on Tuesday. 

Six weeks of campaigning lies ahead. Focusing on the high politics of it all for now, the history books don’t make happy reading for the Conservatives. The last time a General Election was in July was 1945, burying the Tories under a Labour landslide. No governing party has gone into an election as far behind in the polls as the current Conservative Government and managed to win.

Being a bit long in the tooth, I’ve lived through a fair few general elections but I must admit to being left rather flummoxed by Sunak’s move. Reports suggest that many of his own MPs are similarly puzzled, no doubt the rest left bewildered by the clumsiest start to a General Election in living memory. The Prime Minister drowned by the rain and drowned out by a New Labour classic whilst standing at the podium outside No.10. Things truly can only get wetter.

Sunak didn’t need to go to the country now. After all, their polling is persistently dreadful – a steady twenty points behind Labour for well over a year now. The ‘something might come up’ strategy of holding on till the autumn was at least logical, if increasingly unlikely to work. Perhaps going now is borne of a fear that things could get worse? It can’t be that they’ve given up – no one relinquishes power that easily. Publicly Sunak has to say victory is possible, but is the reality that this is a damage-limitation election for the Tories? Keeping Labour’s majority as small as possible the top objective.

Yet for Labour the history books aren’t that comforting either. The scale of the swing needed for Keir Starmer to form a working majority is unprecedented – swings beyond Attlee in 1945 and Blair in 1997 would give Labour a majority of just 1. Tactical voting will be key - and, possibly for the first time since 2005, the electorate appear prepared to use their vote in the most effective way possible. Unfortunately for the Prime Minister, ‘effective’ mostly equates to how best to eject the Tories from office.

Here in London, party activists and politicians have barely caught their breath after May’s elections. But London won’t be a key national battleground in this election. Attention will be beyond the M25, in the Red Wall seats of the Midlands and the North that the Tories must hold and Labour must win back. We’ll look in more detail in the coming weeks at some of these key battles. Some of the biggest surprises on 4 July might well be in the Home Counties donut around London where the Conservatives are under real pressure, particularly from the Liberal Democrats.

That being said, London will still see some battles. With one eye on the polls, Labour would hope to win most if not all of the Tories few remaining inner London seats, and are keen to capture a sweep of outer London seats like Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Chingford and Woodford Green. But the party has some headaches that need sorting quickly - who takes on independent Jeremy Corbyn, what happens with Diane Abbott, who’ll be the party’s candidate in the plum seat of Queen’s Park and Maida Vale. There are only days to sort these out.

We’ll bring you the very best of LCA’s Insight over the coming 41 days as we cover all the twists and turns, highlights and lowlights of the General Election.

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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LONDON POLITICAL ROUNDUP

Boots on the ground: With the Prime Minister’s announcement, it’s chocks away for London’s political party machines, whose leafleting and canvassing activities have barely had chance to catch breath since the GLA elections earlier this month.

Scores on the doors: as a reminder, last time round in 2019, Labour won 49 MPs in the capital, the Conservatives 21 and Lib Dems 3. This time round, the total number of constituencies rises to 75, and the subsequent boundary changes see the creation of some totally new constituencies and some existing ones heavily redrawn, adding further spice to the coming contest.

Hands and faces: Within minutes of the announcement, candidates were out and about on social media and in their patches. Minister for London and MP for Chelsea and Fulham Greg Hands took a tour of his constituency’s Tube stations. In next door Cities of London & Westminster, Labour’s candidate Rachel Blake was quick to drum up support with a launch event at Pimlico station, supported by Deputy National Campaign Coordinator (and Lewisham West & Penge MP) Ellie Reeves.

Change of guard: To date, seven of the capital’s Conservative MPs are standing down – a third of their total in London. We wouldn’t be surprised to see that number increase in the coming days as the party puts the finishing touches to their slate of candidates. With the polls as they are, it is a hard fight ahead for some sitting Tory MPs – Labour will be eyeing up many, including key seats in the suburbs like Chipping Barnet (Theresa Villiers) and Chingford & Woodford Green (Ian Duncan Smith).

Red sunset: Four Labour MPs aren’t standing again, including the trio Harriet Harman (first elected 1982), Margaret Hodge (first elected 1994) and Karen Buck (first elected 1997), who between them have clocked up a mighty 99 years’ service in Parliament. Rumours surround other MPs who decide to not seek re-election – and safe Labour berths likely to result in a bunfight.

Poisoned chalice: There’s no news yet on whether Abbott will regain the whip and stand as Labour’s candidate in her constituency of Hackney North, but at the time of publication, she remains suspended.

Home Counties Shuffle: With the Conservatives under pressure in a belt of Home County seats around London, this will be a major area of focus in the coming election. In Surrey, the Liberal Democrats are targeting high profile suburban seats such as Godalming and Ash, Guildford, Woking, Surrey Heath and Esher and Walton – home to two high-profile Tory cabinet ministers (Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove). Labour will fancy their chances in larger commuter towns like Stevenage, Bracknell and Crawley, while hoping to pick up Thurrock (where Starmer visited on day one of the campaign), the Medway towns (where Starmer launched Labour’s campaign on day two) and Southend-on-Sea. Hot off the press – long-standing Tory MP John Redwood has announced he is standing down – the Lib Dems will fancy nabbing his Wokingham constituency.

Last orders: For any seats without candidates, the race is on to quickly select runners and riders. LabourList estimates that the Labour Party has around 100 candidates to select, while elections guru Michael Crick estimates that the Conservatives are lacking 190 candidates. Many of these seats will be considered unwinnable and it is likely candidates will be appointed by party headquarters.

Labour plums: In London, two safe Labour seats remain without candidates – the new Queen’s Park & Maida Vale (successor to Westminster North) and West Ham & Beckton in Newham. Candidates for Queen’s Park & Maida Vale have until 5pm Monday to apply, with the rumour mill in full swing over who will throw their hat into the ring – will the leaders of Westminster and Camden councils, Adam Hug and Georgia Gould, go head to head?

Our Candidate Watch section just got more interesting. Here are the latest picks...

CANDIDATE WATCH

Labour has selected energy consultant Hersh Thaker as the party’s candidate for Carshalton and Wallington, where Conservative Eliot Colburn is defending a majority of just 629 votes over the Lib Dems.

Cabinet Member for Regeneration and Development on Hounslow Council, Cllr Tom Bruce, has been selected as Labour’s candidate for Twickenham (currently held by the Lib Dems).

Sutton councillor Luke Taylor has been selected as the Liberal Democrats’ candidate for Sutton and Cheam. The seat is a target for the party with incumbent Conservative MP Paul Scully (who won with a 8,351 majority in 2019) standing down. Labour has chosen Croydon councillor Chrishni Reshekaron.

Ward councillor for North Hanwell on Ealing Council, Claire Tighe, is Labour’s candidate for Spelthorne.

Croydon ward councillor for Woodgate, Jess Hammersley-Rich, is Labour’s candidate for Surrey Heath, the constituency seat of Secretary of State Michael Gove. She was only elected to Croydon Council in a ward by-election on 2 May.

Deputy Speaker and Conservative MP for Epping Forest, Eleanor Laing, is standing down. She has been the local MP for the forest seat for 27 years.

MEANWHILE IN LONDON

Settle down, settle in: Back to normal for the Mayor of London and the boroughs as the new municipal year begins. It’s local council annual general meetings (AGM) season – with some eye-opening shuffling of cabinet roles across the city. With the calling of the General Election, this means all remaining AGMs will need to take place before 31 May when the pre-election period in local government begins.

Chops and Changes I: Haringey councillor Adam Jogee has stepped down from Haringey’s Cabinet, replaced by Cllr Ajda Ovat, to contest Newcastle-under-Lyme while Labour’s candidate for Tatton, Ryan Jude, has taken on the role of Cabinet Member for Climate, Ecology and Culture. Meanwhile, Ealing’s Bassam Mahfouz - recently elected to the London Assembly - has stepped down from the Cabinet after 14 years.

Chops and Changes II: Deputy Leader of Islington Council, Diarmaid Ward has transferred his planning portfolio over to Homes and Communities lead, Una O’Halloran, Flora Williamson and Sheila Chapman have joined the Executive as lead members for Health & Social Care and Equalities respectively. In neighbouring Camden, Cllr Sagal Abdi-Wali has taken the Better Homes brief from Meric Apak. South of the river, Southwark councillor John Batteson takes on the Jobs and Business portfolio from Martin Seaton.

Dibs for Libs: Cllr Ruth Dombey has officially stood down as Leader of Sutton Council after 12 years in the post. Wallington councillor Barry Lewis is her replacement. Elsewhere in Lib Dem Land, newly elected London Assembly member for South West, Gareth Roberts, continues as Leader of Richmond Council for (at least) another year. In neighbouring Kingston, Lib Dem leader Andreas Kirsch adds the culture portfolio to his duties.

A stern line: Over at City Hall, the first Mayor’s Question Time of Sadiq Khan’s third term got off to a spikey start, with Khan on the end of a talking-to from the Chair, Conservative Andrew Boff. Boff adjourned proceedings after Khan made ‘overtly political statements’ related to the General Election, breaching Boff’s request to maintain pre-election period neutrality. Labour Assembly Members took a sneakier route through the Chair’s rules, ending their questions by saying ‘things can only get better.’

LEEDS LONDON COMMUNICATIONS AGENCY

Leeds United – before the election was called, it was up the East Coast Mainline to Leeds for this year’s UKREiiF. A top team from LCA was in Leeds for three days of events, panels and receptions.

Packed out – attendance this year was markedly up on last year, so much so that many venues and events were packed to overflowing, with solid rain on Day 2 doing little to dampen enthusiasm. Even before the Prime Minister’s announcement on Wednesday, the upcoming General Election and what this might mean for the industry was a hot topic of conversation. Luckily, two key front benchers from both main parties joined the proceedings to lay out their side’s respective policies.

Angela’s Dashes – Shadow Secretary of State Angela Rayner breezed into Leeds on Tuesday to deliver a keynote speech, much trailed in that morning’s media. To a packed audience with standing room only, Rayner reiterated Labour’s intentions to speed up the planning process and get building homes and infrastructure and confirmed the party’s intention to proceed with a generation of New Towns. A new independent taskforce would be established and charged with identifying sites for New Towns in the first 12 months of a Labour Government.

Rowley’s turn - The next day, Housing Minister Lee Rowley sat down for ‘in conversation’ with L&Q Chief Executive Fiona Fletcher Smith. Topics that came up included skills shortages, how social housing is classed on the nation’s balance sheet (asset or debt), working with the Treasury and whether there’ll be any more public money for housing. Asked if a General Election was about to be called, Rowley quipped he hoped not, an answer that hasn’t aged well.

• Secretary of State Michael Gove lifted the Article 31 holding direction on the City of London Corporation’s London Wall West plans. The scheme, approved by the City in April 2024, proposes demolishing the former Museum of London and Bastion House to deliver three new office buildings between five and 17 storeys, the provision of 8,182 sqm of cultural floorspace, a new Central Plaza off London Wall, and public realm alterations to improve connectivity.
  
  
• Meanwhile Sellar and Network Rail are making design changes to plans for the £1.5bn redevelopment of Liverpool Street station to ‘reflect City and stakeholder feedback.’ The controversial plans received over 2,200 objections, including from the Victorian Society, Historic England, and neighbouring Westminster and Hackney councils. The developers propose delivering a 20-storey tower containing 10 floors of office space, a six-floor hotel scheme and a 0.75 acre roof terrace with a swimming pool.
  
  
• Network Rail has submitted the industrial-led outline masterplan for the regeneration of the Bow Goods Yard on the Olympic Park to the London Legacy Development Corporation (LLDC). Situated on Strategic Industrial Land, Network Rail proposes retaining the site as a rail freight hub capable of handling up to 3.5m tonnes of freight, alongside up to 190,000 sqm in light and heavy industrial floorspace, with the flexibility to deliver up to 32,000 sqm of leisure and hospitality space.
  
  
• Criterion Capital’s plans to deliver a new residential scheme in East Greenwich, consisting of 564 homes (33% affordable) in three buildings of three, 23 and 35 storeys, have faced opposition from local residents over the height. Greenwich planning officers recommended the application be granted but the council’s Planning Board deferred a decision on 21 May so the developer could reconsider and ‘redistribute’ the height of the 35-storey tower. Ward councillor Rowshan Hannan (Labour) and the East Greenwich Residents Association have labelled the height of the scheme ‘ludicrous.’
  
  
• Barking and Dagenham’s regeneration company Be First is searching for a new development partner to take forward the next phase of its £1.8bn River Road regeneration. Be First secured planning permission in 2021 to deliver 6,253 homes and 3.1m sq ft of commercial floorspace, with the first phase of 156 affordable Build-to-Rent homes and 50,000 sq ft of light industrial space due for completion later in 2024.
• Rockwell Property has submitted revised plans to deliver a 34-storey, 142-home scheme (35% affordable) at Battersea Bridge, delivered through demolition of the existing six-storey Glassmill Building. The plans were withdrawn and scaled back following after a scoping report submitted to Wandsworth Council in January 2024 received 340 local objections to the plans for a 39-storey building with 170 homes and 743 sqm of office space.
  
  
• LandsecU+I has launched a second public consultation on its updated masterplan for Lewisham Shopping Centre. The developer proposes delivery of 1,700 new homes (15-20% affordable), a 700-bed student accommodation scheme, a new central park, and a replacement shopping centre in buildings up to 35 storeys.
  
  
• Redcliff Cap is consulting with Bromley Council to develop a new masterplan for the redevelopment of the Walnuts Shopping Centre, which it acquired in 2019 from Patrizia. Previous plans for the site, which included the demolition of buildings and the delivery of two towers of 19 and 24 storeys containing 990 homes (20% affordable), were withdrawn due to a strong opposition from the community.

• King’s Cross Central Limited Partnership has appointed Stephen Hubbard as its new Chairman, replacing David Clementi after 16 years in the role. Hubbard is the former Chairman of CBRE UK and is a Non-Executive Director at Canada Water.
  
  
• Chief Executive of the London Legacy Development Corporation Lyn Garner, and Chair Lord Peter Hendy, are to step down at the end of 2024. Garner has held the position for more than six years, with Hendy having chaired for eight years. Later this year, LLDC transfers land and planning powers previously allocated to develop the Olympic Park back to neighbouring boroughs.
  
  
• L&Q has appointed former Chief Executive of The Co-operative Bank, Liam Coleman, as their new Chair. Coleman current sits as Chair of the Financial Conduct Authority’s Audit Committee.
  
  

• CEO of Abrdn Stephen Bird is to step down after four years in the role. He is to work with current Chief Financial Officer Jason Windsor, who is appointed as interim CEO, on a handover and succession plan until a replacement is found.
  
  

• Alison FitzGerald has been promoted to Chief Executive Officer at London City Airport, having held the role of Chief Operating Officer since 2016.
  
  
• RIBA has announced the three-person shortlist of architects nominated for the role of RIBA President from September 2025. Funmbi Adeagbo from Morris+Company, Duncan Baker-Brown of BakerBrown Studio, and Weston Williamson + Partners’ Chair Chris Williamson are on the ballot.
  
  
• The City of London Corporation has hired Katie Stewart as their new Executive Director for Environment, joining from Surrey County Council.
  
  
• Chair of the RICS Board and Senior Advisor to Ferguson Partners, Martin Samworth, has joined Ringley Group as a new Strategic Advisor and Non-Executive Director.
  
  
• Anna Snow has been appointed Planning Director for London at Lichfields, joining from Iceni Projects after eight years. She will continue leading on planning and development in central and inner London, with a particular focus on the Central Activities Zone.
  
  
• Nadia Fall has been hired as The Young Vic’s new Artistic Director, succeeding Kwame Kwei-Armah. Southwark-born Fall currently runs the Theatre Royal Stratford East and will also join Lucy Davies in the role of joint Chief Executive.

WE RECOMMEND

• PoliticsHome’s new Editor Adam Payne on why Sunak gambled with a July election.
• The Times on what happened within the Government on Sunak’s big day
• The i’s rundown of potential Conservative ministers at risk of losing their seats.
• How do the pollsters think the election campaign will pan out?
• Our very own Nick Bowes’ piece in The MJ on what the next Government should do for London.
• How London could become a ‘sponge city’, with flash flooding identified as a major risk to the capital.
• London’s buildings that were never built.
• Oxford Economics' latest Global Cities Index revealing London is the cleverest city in the world.
• ING Media's Caz Facey on the potential for swimming once the Thames Tideway super sewer is up and running.
• Architects Fereday Pollard call to Londoners to 'come out and enjoy' the seven new parks opening along the Thames Tideway route

WHAT A NIGHT

At LCA’s UKREiiF dinner, we brought together a fantastic blend of our clients, associates, and senior leaders and decision makers for an evening filled with fine food, good company and great conversations. We were honoured to have two special guests - the Housing Minister, Lee Rowley (in possibly one of his final appearances in the role), and London’s Deputy Mayor for Planning, Regeneration and the Fire Service, Jules Pipe. Both shared their thoughts with us on the challenges facing the development sector and fielded questions from those in the room. Thank you to everyone who attended and contributed to making it such an excellent evening – see you next year!

LCA AT UKREIIF

LCA Partner and Co-Managing Director Politics, Engagement and Planning, Jane Groom chaired a panel – entitled The Low Down on Levelling Up In London consisting of City of London Corporation’s Shravan Joshi, Croydon Council’s Heather Cheesborough, Old Oak Common and Park Royal Development Corporation’s Marianne Brook and Ealing Council’s Peter George. The wide-ranging discussion covered the challenges of applying for levelling up funding, some of the solutions that might help with London’s own levelling up needs and how the city can best play a role in the efforts to level up the rest of the country.  

Jane also chaired two further events on the final day of UKREiiF on building safety and tackling the affordable housing crisis. 

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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