LDN Weekly – Issue 309 – 27 March 2024 – BIG, BAD LONDON

Dear Reader,

The last few days has seen two key political milestones come and go. Yesterday was the last opportunity for the Prime Minister to call a General Election on 2 May. Yet there was no sign of the famed lectern appearing outside 10 Downing Street. That noise you can hear is the giant sigh of relief from London Elects, no longer losing sleep over having to count General Election, Mayoral and London Assembly votes at the same time.

The second milestone is at 4pm today - the deadline for candidates wishing to stand to be Mayor of London. Sorry if you’re reading this after 4pm and you missed submitting the paperwork – still, there’s always 2028.

Labour, Conservative, Green and Lib Dem candidates have all now officially launched their campaigns to be the next Mayor of London. Much that I’m sure the majority of people would love the campaign to be a clean, fair contest, I’ve been around the block a bit and know that it can turn dirty and personal. When your back is up against the wall, the pressure is on to come out fighting – and that includes political parties lagging in the polls with an election just a few weeks away.

Perhaps that explains a new campaign video from the Conservatives which has, to put it mildly, kicked up a bit of a stink. Unsurprisingly, Labour aren’t happy about it – but there are also rumblings of discontent from the blue corner too.

Much of the ire is from within London but I think this misses what the video is trying to achieve. To me, it’s less about the race for City Hall and trying to appeal to voters in London. Instead, it’s more pitched at those beyond the M25 – stoking the simmering ‘London versus The Rest of the Country’ tensions we’ve seen more of over the last few years, and using Sadiq Khan as a bogeyman to get out the Tory vote.

There’s a long history of anti-London sentiment – it’s nothing new, as friend of LDN Jack Brown details in his excellent book on the subject. But it has certainly shot up the agenda in recent years, as our politics has polarised – and London has charted a different social, economic and political trajectory to some other parts of the UK. Courting votes in the Red Wall by bashing London has become a new sport.

But the fact of the matter is that the video is directed at a city which, whether you like it or not, is the motor of the country’s economy and pays a large chunk of the nation’s bills. London operates on a global level and is a huge magnet for international investment – one of the key reasons why Opportunity London was established, to help connect that investment with the city’s big opportunities. So what kind of message does it send when the governing party produces a dystopian – and, yes, Trumpian – video the denigrates London and fuels those peddling conspiracy theories?

Yet, with a follow up video focusing on Birmingham, perhaps this reveals something more – that by pitching town and country versus city, the Tory strategy is now to give up on metropolitan areas and double down on rural constituencies and towns.

But a capital city the Tory party risks vacating is hardly what one would expect from a party proud of its unionist tradition.

Moreover, the video – along with Lee Anderson’s comments a few weeks ago – will be turned by Labour to their advantage, portraying it as an attack on London, Londoners and the city’s values. In this light, it is debatable how helpful the video is for Susan Hall’s chances, reminding me of former Minister for London Paul Scully’s warnings to the Conservative Party a few weeks ago of being ‘disrespectful to Londoners’.

Either way, with the Mayoral contest in May and a General Election due, the political geography of the country could be turned upside down if the polls are correct. Regardless of who wins, stitching back together the social fabric of the country will be a pressing challenge.

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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LONDON POLITICS ROUNDUP

Hall & Votes: Tory Mayoral candidate Susan Hall officially launched her campaign in the politically symbolic Uxbridge, vowing to be a ‘Mayor who listens’.

5,4,3,2,1… Hall is campaigning on a 5-point plan – (1) getting a grip on crime; (2) scrapping ULEZ expansion; (3) ending the war on motorists; (4) opposing tower blocks, building family homes, not building on Green Belt and going for ‘gentle density’ and; (5) a cleaner and greener London.

Hall Role Call: Other policies include demanding a tougher policing response to protests and appointing a women’s commissioner for London to lead on safety.  Being pro-motorist is a central focus with Hall vowing to cancel ULEZ expansion, remove cycle lanes, get rid of low traffic neighbourhoods and strip out floating bus stops.

Video nasty: The new Conservative campaign video has proven controversial, with a dark portrayal of London complete with sinister American voiceover. An original version was quickly deleted, yet an edited version later appeared. Unsurprisingly, Labour’s Sadiq Khan hit back, dubbing the video “unpatriotic” and “slagging off the capital city”.

Demonising London: The video appears more geared towards voters outside of London, using Khan as a bogeyman to whip up support beyond the M25. Whether Hall was aware of the video in advance, and what impact it will have on voters within the city, is unclear – her campaign’s response was to say “the advert was not put out by Susan Hall’s campaign”. Needless to say, the video hasn’t gone down all too well even in Tory circles.

Poll with it: And the latest poll makes tough reading for Hall, with Khan maintaining a strong lead with just five weeks until election day. The poll, by Savanta for Centre for London, has Khan on 51% versus Hall on 27%, with Labour also ahead in outer as well as inner London.

Jitter bug: But it’s not all good news for Khan, with Londoners on balance not happy with the Mayor’s performance across key policy areas including crime, housing and homelessness. Perhaps unsurprisingly commentators continue to question the robustness of Khan’s poll lead. 

In the red corner: Undaunted, Khan vowed, if re-elected, that there’ll be no changes to ULEZ and has ruled out introducing pay-per-mile road charging. Hall dubbed the commitment ‘worthless’.  Khan also pledged more money for youth clubs, promised a new TfL hate crime taskforce and trumpeted twenty achievements from his time as Mayor.

Green Day: Over in Bethnal Green (appropriately), the Green Party’s Mayoral candidate Zoe Garbett launched her campaign to capture City Hall. Green candidates for Mayor have increased their vote share at each election – but the change to the voting system could see the party squeezed yet also see the Greens play a key role in who wins under the first past the post system.

Spring greens: Garbett’s pitch included pledges to bring down public transport fares, look at introducing pay-per-mile road user charging, extend free school meals to secondary school pupils, establish a rent commission, review the London Plan to ensure more social homes are built, retain the Night Czar role – extending advocates to also include an Elders Champion and a Loos Czar.

Hustings season: With the Mayoral campaign in full swing, barely a day will go by without a hustings, yet so far the two front runners haven’t made an appearance. AgeUK were first up, with Green Candidate Zoe Garbett the only one to attend, followed by CPRE, at which Garbett was joined by Lib Dem Rob Blackie. With many more hustings likely before polling day, LDN will be hope that before polling day Khan and Hall will make at least one appearance and ideally more.

London 1, Manchester 0: Think tank Centre for Cities looked at people’s views on the success of devolution to date. Transport policies have cut through the most (perhaps unsurprisingly) and there is support for more power to be held locally. Mayors are also more recognisable than other local politicians, with Sadiq Khan topping the poll, ahead of Manchester’s Andy Burnham. In related news, Londoners quitting the city are more likely to head to the South East or abroad than the north.

A little local difficulty: Despite some speculation he might have been in trouble, leader of Southwark Council Kieron Williams narrowly saw off a challenge by one of his cabinet members. Elsewhere, there’ll be a council by-election in Croydon on 2 May, and in Hounslow Joanna Biddolph has been suspended from the local Conservative Party group of councillors.

Pedicab bye-bye: The long-awaited legislation introducing regulation of pedicabs on Central London streets has finally made it into law. The new Act of Parliament will grant TfL the powers to regulate pedicabs in the same way it regulates private hire vehicles and black cabs.

LATEST ON LEASEHOLD

Not another one: In LDN 307, we reported on Housing Secretary Michael Gove’s growing challenges in pushing his flagship Renters Reform Bill onto the statute books. Now, and despite passing through the House of Commons pretty much unscathed, the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Bill reaches the House of Lords and is also reportedly hitting choppy water.

Estate of shock: The Sunday Times reports that Gove’s preference for cutting ground rent to a ‘peppercorn’ level had been blocked by the Prime Minister and Treasury, with a £250-a-year cap mooted instead. Downing Street is apparently ‘spooked’ by the potential loss of up to £40bn in investments from pension funds and investors.

Cut and carried? Elsewhere, the Express reports a letter to Gove from backbench Tory MPs warning that the Bill’s proposed abolition of so-called ‘marriage value’ is ‘too draconian’ and could result in the loss of capital for freeholders or potentially even a legal challenge.

Early alarms: Built environment groups warned of the potential ‘disruption’ which abolishing ground rent entirely could cause since it was first proposed in November 2023. Melanie Leech of the BPF called it a ‘mess for the next government to deal with’ if pension funds were suddenly ‘fighting hard to protect their interest’ in freeholds.

Moore’s the pity: Telegraph columnist Charles Moore fired a shot across Gove’s bows, making the case for freeholders, especially long-term owners and estates who can ‘create a form of urban planning superior to state-sector equivalents.’ He warned that the reforms could ‘annoy’ the Conservative Party’s ‘natural supporters’ of houseowners and businesses.

Déjà vu, anyone? A group of 46 Tory MPs have urged Gove to tackle the practice of freeholders outsourcing building management services such as bins and cleaning, adding ‘exorbitant fees’ to service charges. Signed by four former housing ministers, the group labels the practice ‘fleecehold’ and warns of ‘natural Conservative voters’ being swept up in an ‘unfair system’.

Tough Crowd: Shadow Housing Secretary Angela Rayner accused the Government of ‘dithering’ on leasehold reform, calling out the latest difficulties as more ‘Tory infighting’ and ‘another sign that Rishi Sunak is too weak to deliver for working people.’ Harry Scoffin of the Free Leaseholders Campaign attacked the pension fund investment argument as ‘fake news’ and a ‘wilful distortion’ of freeholder profits.

Tougher Crowd: Leasehold reform has picked up substantial cross-party support in an otherwise divided Parliament. Bob Blackman, Tory MP for Harrow East, said the Bill as it passed through to the House of Lords failed to recognise the ‘abuse and poor service’ which leaseholders experience.

Toughest Crowd: The Competition and Markets Authority recently ruled that charging ground rent was ‘neither legally nor commercially necessary’ in a response to the Government’s consultation on reform.

Something’s gotta give: As for the Housing Secretary, he risks having to face down his own backbenchers on both the Leasehold and Freehold Reform and the Renters Reform Bill if he’s to get the legislation through and may have to rely on Labour votes to do so. Just last month, the ever bullish Gove pledged never to cave into ‘shadowy corporations’ and ‘fake campaigners’ seeking to wreck leasehold reform. Even if both bills fall, or are watered down, Labour has committed to finish the job if they win the General Election.

• RIBA has unveiled plans for the ‘House of Architecture’ which will transform their member offer – with a focus on bringing its architectural collections together, upgrading digital technology, and delivering a sensitive refurbishment and restoration of RIBA’s London headquarters at 66 Portland Place. The refurbishment proposals include creating a new accessible entrance on Weymouth Street, a ‘destination café’, and a new Treasures Room highlighting items from the RIBA collections. The building would be refigured with larger lifts to enable better access to the building’s 28 levels, ensure it is a safe, accessible, functioning place for people to work, learn and visit.    
  
  
• Yoo Capital has submitted plans to Camden Council to refurbish and redevelop the Grade II-listed Saville Theatre on Shaftesbury Avenue, transforming the venue into the first European home for dance troupe Cirque du Soleil. The developer would see the cinema revert to its original use as a theatre with excavation of basement levels to provide a ‘world-class’ performance space. The plans also include adding a six-storey roof extension for use as a luxury hotel.
  
  
• Planning officers at Westminster City Council have recommended approval for Lazari Investments’ proposed redevelopment of the former Fenwick’s department store on New Bond Street. The plans include adding five storeys to the current five storey building and delivering up to 175,043 sq ft of office space, while reducing retail space by around 61%. The proposals will be heard at planning committee on 2 April and have been objected to by Historic England and the GLA, citing the height and bulk of the new building.
  
  
• Oxford Properties Group and LCP have secured planning permission from Hillingdon Council to develop a new 340,000 sq ft sustainable logistics and warehouse site on a 15a brownfield site next to Heathrow Airport. Set next to the Cranebank Nature Reserve, the plans also include improvements to public access for the nearby parks and water meadows.
  
  
• Provewell has secured planning permission from Haringey Council for its plans to deliver a new ‘communal living’ warehouse-style development in Seven Sisters, containing 101 homes. The two buildings of four and eight storeys also includes three commercial units with a combined floorspace of 4,154 sqm.
  
  
• Islington Council has approved Riverside Capital’s revised plans to develop a new 4,240 sqm, five storey office building at One Pear Tree Street. The plans were previously approved in 2016 but have been revised several times to conform to energy performance standards and to improve accessibility.

• Bywater Properties has appointed Harry Daws as new Head of Living, joining from Scape. The role is a newly-created position as part of the company’s greater investment in the residential sector.
  
  
• Guy’s and St Thomas’ Foundation has appointed Laurie Lee as permanent Chief Executive, having led on an interim basis since April 2023.
  
  
• Avison Young promoted Rick Jenkins to the role of Chief Financial Officer, overseeing the company’s financial strategy and operations. Jenkins first joined Avison Young in 2016 as Global Controller.
  
  
• Phineas Harper has stepped down as Chief Executive of Open City after four years at the charity to pursue a writing career. Chief Operating Officer Lucy Pickford is to lead as interim CEO while recruitment takes place.
  
  
• Amanda James joins British Land as a new non-executive director. James is currently the Chief Financial Officer at fashion and homewares retailer Next.
  
  
• Wates has formally appointed Steffan Battle as new Managing Director of Construction, following seven months of holding the role on an interim basis. Battle replaces Mark Tant who led the firm’s construction arm for nine years.

CANDIDATE WATCH

• Cities of London and Westminster Conservatives have selected Tim Barnes as the party’s candidate for the next General Election. Barnes is currently the CEO of the Centre for Entrepreneurs and a former councillor on Westminster City Council.  Sitting Tory MP Nickie Aiken announced in January that she would not seek re-election. Barnes will defend a notional 5,976 majority in what is considered a key London battleground.
  
  
• Newly created seat Croydon East saw Labour select Natasha Irons as the party’s candidate at the next election, after a delayed process following accusations of improper behaviour. Irons is currently a councillor in the London Borough of Merton. The constituency is deemed marginally Labour (majority 3,413) by election gurus Thrasher and Rallings.

WHAT'S ON OVER EASTER?

Well-deserved: LCA is looking forward to a four-day weekend as Easter is here and spring has well and truly sprung. Here’s our roundup of some activities and events taking place over the Bank Holiday weekend and Easter holidays.

Animal magic: London Zoo’s new exhibition featuring over 30 species of reptiles and amphibians opens on Friday 29 March. The exhibit is found in the new building replacing the historic Reptile House, which closed in 2023 for redevelopment. There’s also a new six-week old baby gorilla if lizards and frogs aren’t cute enough for you.

Moving on up: 2023 was a good year for the London Transport Museum, taking in 29% more visitors than in 2022. The Covent Garden based museum is hosting a new family event series focusing on the role of London’s transport and the environment. Sadiq will be pleased.

Is that the sun I see? Kew Gardens is showcasing the very best talent from young composers at the Royal College of Music, played exclusively for the spring blossoms of the south west London horticultural hotspot. There’s also live music, wellbeing events and talks from Kew’s leading experts on all things bright and beautiful.

Humble roots: Peter Bergin, an English teacher from Woking, will be portraying Jesus Christ for the Wintershall Players’ lauded re-enactment of the crucifixion on Good Friday. Large crowds poured to Trafalgar Square last year for the famously realistic (and gory) interpretation of the Passion of Christ.

Watery eggs: The historic St Katherine Docks is pulling out the stops for a memorable Easter with three hunts over the Bank Holiday weekend. The dockland-wide search is free and there’s a chance for the adults to win a luxury hamper. Treats galore!

Strava palaver: If you’re looking to work off any chocolate treats, the Regent’s Park 10k organised by Nice Work is taking place on Monday. There’s a fee to enter but at least the ground is flat and uncomplicated. There’s also a 2-mile fun run and junior’s race on the same day.

Alternatively… Some of our more outgoing readers may wish to head to Egg LDN at King’s Cross for their annual Easter Weekender. Fans of house music and old school club anthems will enjoy a late-night spectacle closing at 6am. Great for nightlife, terrible for hangovers.

WE RECOMMEND

• BusinessLDN’s John Dickie on why the next London Mayor needs to work with business, while CBI London launch their Greater London manifesto.
• LCA’s very own Harriet Shone, as part of our Race for City Hall blog series, on London’s housing challenge.
• A trail of colourful dog sculptures turning Canary Wharf into Canary Woof (west of Barking).
• Former LCA client Thames Tideway announcing the completion of London’s new £5bn super sewer.
• React News (£) on the future for Thames waterfront regeneration.
• Opportunities and ambitions from the UK Innovation Corridor’s latest Growth Plan for 2024-30.
• The Evening Standard report on the scores of new skyscrapers on London’s skyline
• The blessed news for south Londoners as Tooting Bec Lido announces its reopening date.

URBAN VILLAGE FETE RETURNS TO GREENWICH PENINSULA

LCA has been promoting the return of London’s top free festival – Urban Village Fete – set to take place Sunday 19 May at Greenwich Peninsula. Urban Village Fete is one of London’s best family-friendly events in the summer calendar and for the last nine years have offered an alternative and contemporary take on a village fete, enhancing the buzzing creative community at the unrivalled Thames-side destination.

The festival promises an eclectic programme for visitors to enjoy including live music by headliner DJs Gilles Peterson and Jamz Supernova, cultural talks hosted by BBC London’s Robert Elms, a summer’s alternative ‘Allympics’ including Show Jumping, Relay to Egg and Spoon Race competitions, an Independent Traders Market with baked goods and street food, and a plethora of interactive workshops – offering a chance for every visitor – young, old and in between – to get involved. You can read more about the event on Time Out.

Photo courtesy of Knight Dragon

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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