LDN Weekly – Issue 304 – 22 February 2024 – Not For Turning

Dear Reader,

One of the fascinating aspects of the last decade is that despite politicians repeatedly assuring voters they’re the ones to provide stability, the country has experienced perhaps the most turbulent chapter in living memory. Brexit, five Prime Ministers in seven years, three General Elections in nine years is to most people – whatever their politics – quite the antithesis to stable.

Yet, amongst all the upheaval and political turmoil, stability has come in the form of the opinion polls. Labour have led the Tories since November 2021 when Partygate really started to erode Boris Johnson’s popularity. The lead widened during Liz Truss’s short time in No 10, and since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister in summer 2022, double digits have separated the two main parties.

And this is despite everything that Sunak’s government have done to narrow the polls – reshuffles, budgets, U-turns on policy – none have made a dint in the substantial Labour leads. Worryingly for Sunak, since Christmas, the gap between Labour and the Conservatives had even started to widen further.

As election strategies go, Labour really haven’t had to do too much up to now – the increasingly fractious Tory benches in parliament doing their job for them. Labour is traditionally the factionalised party, but with new groups springing up all the time, it is increasingly hard to see what, other than being in power, unifies the Tories as a party.  

Then, all of a sudden, Labour had a rocky few weeks. First, the party ditched the flagship £28bn Green Prosperity Plan. This came after months of public briefings by each side, undermining attempts at party unity. Second, Labour’s monumental mess over their Rochdale by-election candidate. Jitters were fuelled further by an opinion poll showing a marked narrowing of the poll lead.

For the first time in many months, instead of internal battles, the Tories smelt blood and trained their guns on Labour. Ministers hit the airwaves to attack Starmer, hammering home that he’s a flip-flopper who isn’t exciting the voters. Tory Party HQ might have hoped this was the moment when their fortunes turned. And that falling inflation, rising wages and a tax cutting March Budget fuels an economic feel good factor acting as a springboard into a General Election victory.

Yet, last week, despite all Labour’s problems, two further stonking by-election defeats for the Conservatives checked the Government’s brief flurry of hope. Compounding matters, one poll now has the approval rating gap between Starmer and Sunak as the widest it has ever been.

All of this encapsulates the Conservative’s problem – for all that Keir Starmer doesn’t generate vast enthusiasm amongst the electorate, he is now responsible for four of the largest by-election swings in history, and all in the past year. What this would suggest is that a good chunk of voters have made up their minds about the current Government, and not in a good way. The mood is very much that it’s time to give the other side a turn at running the country.

Today’s Gaza vote presents another challenge for Starmer, but with more by-elections on the horizon, and May’s elections not far away, we’ll see soon enough where the electoral momentum lies.

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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LONDON POLITICS LATEST

Ghosts of elections past: The Conservative Party was widely criticised for sharing a doctored video that made it appear as though the Mayor, Sadiq Khan described the Labour Party as ‘antisemitic’. Even former Tory candidate Zac Goldsmith’s campaign organiser and former MP for Enfield North, Nick de Bois, called it a ‘shameful’ and ‘deceitful.’ Let’s hope this isn’t a taste of what London should expect from the coming campaign.

Wide awake: Conservative mayoral candidate Susan Hall criticised the Mayor’s decision not to reserve the Fourth Plinth at Trafalgar Square for a statute of the late Queen.

A fitting memorial: It has been a repeat tactic of some to criticise the Mayor over the Queen’s statue, although not everyone is convinced the corner of a square already full of statues of lesser known figures is a fitting memorial for someone with the longevity and legacy of the former Queen. Besides, a Commission is now up and running to advise on a national memorial to Queen Elizabeth II. 

Sweet release: Instead, the long-standing commissioning of unique and diverse artworks will continue until 2030, with the programme celebrating its 25th anniversary this year. Seven artists are shortlisted to feature on the plinth in 2026 and 2028, with models of all seven works available to view from 17 March at the National Gallery.

Sheriff of Harrow: Hall has placed tackling crime central to her campaign, with a new £200m plan to reinstate borough commanders and tackle thefts, robberies and knife crime. She’s also pledged to save £160m from cancelling free ‘mates rates’ Travelcards for TfL workers’ loved ones.

Devo undermined?: Inside Housing report that the Government are considering legislating to give Homes England a bigger role in housing delivery in London. Current legislation doesn’t permit the agency to work in London, with the Mayor of London given devolved powers for distributing affordable housing funding in the capital. Given the Government’s track record in recent months, is this a political move just before a Mayoral election?

Trainy McTrainface: The Mayor officially broke the internet last week when he unveiled the new names for the six Overground lines. Splitting out the orange network into separate lines is something TfL have wanted to do to improve wayfinding, and the new names - Weaver, Lioness, Suffragette, Mildmay, Windrush and Liberty - are intended to reflect parts of the city’s history.

Signal failure: That’s not to say the new names have been universally welcomed - according to Susan Hall, they’re a case of ‘misplaced priorities’ and the Mayor’s attention should be on tackling crime and travel delays instead of ‘virtue signalling.’

Big purple shoes to fill: With MTR Corporation’s contract to run the Elizabeth line ending in May 2025, TfL has shortlisted four bidders to become the ‘transformational’ line’s new operator: Arriva UK Trains, First Keolis Elizabeth line, GTS Rail Operations Limited and MTR Corporation (UK) Limited.

Rickety but necessary: Central London Forward has warned that the ageing Bakerloo Line would suffer a ‘critical failure’ unless the Government stumps up some cash to upgrade the line and extend it out to Lewisham and beyond. Your regular reminder here that the Bakerloo trains are the oldest still in passenger use anywhere in the UK.

Cheers to Marsham Street: Thanks to the second round of the Levelling Up Fund, TfL and six London boroughs are to receive a combined £136m to support improvements to public infrastructure and community assets, including the long-awaited transformation of Hackney Central, Lewisham Market, and Colindale and Leyton Tube stations.

Stalling’s appalling: The G15 group of housing associations have warned Secretary of State Michael Gove of London’s affordable housing delivery pipeline ‘grinding to a halt’. G15’s combined members are currently on track to start 1,769 affordable homes in 2024, a 76% decline compared to 2022-23.

Wandle wonder: Wandsworth reclaimed the crown of the lowest council tax in Greater London, freezing their share of the rate for 2024-25. Yet Liberal Democrat-led Kingston Council is increasing their council tax by the maximum amount of 4.99%, retaining its title of London’s most expensive borough. Band D homes in Kingston face a £2,250 annual bill, up by £85.30.

• LCA client MCR Hotels, the third largest hotel owner-operator in the US, has purchased the BT Tower in Fitzrovia from BT Group. MCR intends to secure the future of the iconic Grade II listed tower by repurposing it as a hotel and opening it up to the public. BT will remain in occupation for a number of years to facilitate the removal of technical equipment, and MCR will work with Heatherwick Studio to reimagine its future use as a hotel. LCA managed the media announcement on behalf of MCR and we are hugely excited to be working on such an amazing project.
  
  
• Islington Council has approved Peabody’s redesigned plans for the redevelopment of the former Holloway women’s prison, which closed in 2016. The 985-home (60% affordable) scheme was amended for the third time to add second staircases to residential buildings, subsequently reducing the overall number of homes from 1,000 in buildings up to 14 storeys.
  
  
• Regal London is planning a seven-building mixed-used development at the vacant 1.4ha Orchard Wharf, directly opposite the O2 Arena. A technical document submitted to Tower Hamlets Council outlines a masterplan to demolish all existing warehouse buildings onsite, to deliver 1,365 student bedrooms, 230 homes (35% affordable) and 400 sqm of commercial space within seven buildings built up to 30 storeys. A full planning application is expected to be submitted in spring 2024.
  
  
• Hammersmith and Fulham Council has approved Henley IM’s plans to deliver a five to 17-storey ‘beds and sheds’ scheme at the Albert & Swedish Wharf. The proposals include the demolition of the current buildings to build 285 homes (30% affordable), 55,000 sq ft of logistics space at ground floor level, and a new restaurant. The scheme was opposed by local Conservative MP, Greg Hands, and the Fulham Society.
  
  
• Countryside and L&Q have gained planning permission from Barking and Dagenham Council to add 947 homes to their already-approved outline plans to deliver 3,000 homes (50% affordable) at the site of a former Ford factory at Beam Park. The consent involves six of seven phases of regeneration for the site and includes biodiversity net gain on-site of over 350%.
  
  
• Camden Council published new proposals for transforming Holborn into a ‘Liveable Neighbourhood.’ Backed by TfL, Camden’s plans would see the creation of new public space on New Oxford Street, pedestrianising Great Russell Street, and new public space for patients of Great Ormond Street Hospital. 
  
  
• RIBA London’s shortlist for the 2024 awards includes 76 projects in urban regeneration, housing, transport and leisure under consideration. These include WilkinsonEyre’s Battersea Power Station and LSBU Hub, the Abbey Wood Elizabeth line station by Fereday Pollard, and BDP’s Leighton House.

• Construction firm Sir Robert McAlpine’s Chief Executive, Paul Hamer, has left the business. Former Chief Executive of Lendlease, Neil Martin, is Hamer’s replacement.
  
  
• Chief Executive of the Kent-based housing association Moat Homes, Mary Gibbons, has left her role after a year leading the 21,800-home registered provider.
  
  
• Senior Responsible Officer for the Department for Health and Social Care’s New Hospitals Programme, Natalie Forrest, is to step down after three years in the role.

CANDIDATE WATCH

• Luke Murphy, former ward councillor for Gipsy Hill on Lambeth Council, has been selected as Labour’s candidate to contest the party’s target seat of Basingstoke at the next General Election.
  
  
• Former councillor and Leader of Bromley Council (1998-2001), Chris Maines, has been selected as the Liberal Democrats’ candidate to contest the Lewisham mayoral by-election.

FILM FOCUS

Glitz and glamour: With the stars of the stage and screen arriving en masse at the Royal Festival Hall on Sunday for the BAFTAs, it is clear that London remains the capital of film and TV – industry analysts Comscore estimates the capital accounts for 25% of the UK and Ireland’s annual box office revenue, and the wider creative industry (including film) in London representing over 50% of economic growth in the sector.

Let’s go party: According to the BFI, cinema-going made a loud return to growth, with 26.9m cinema admissions in 2023. The premieres for both Barbie and Oppenheimer in July brought in £8m just for one weekend of top-quality entertainment.

Action! In the run up to the awards ceremony, Deputy Mayor for Culture Justine Simons wrote in the Evening Standard that London is one of the best places in the world to make films, ranking in third place behind only New York and unsurprisingly, Los Angeles.

Spotting places you know - In 2022, 106 feature films and 90 TV dramas were filmed in the capital, bringing with them a number of benefits. Netflix’s smash One Day is currently showcasing the city as a backdrop to the series storyline.

Local heroes: A recent report commissioned by Hounslow Council and the Mayor of London found that a 100,000 sq ft stage space can deliver between £60m and £80m in annual film and TV production expenditure per year, with an estimated 25% of a project’s budget spent locally.

On location: London and the UK is also benefiting from what has been dubbed ‘set-jetting’, where visitors come to see where their favourite films and series were shot. Anyone who spends most of their viewing time pointing out where in London scenes have been filmed can relate…

Utopia: Though we are set to soon say goodbye to the iconic former ITV Studios on the Southbank, the capital will soon welcome the new 21.5 -acre Eastbrook Studios in Barking & Dagenham, providing 12 sound stages as well as an estimated 1,200 jobs and £35m a year for the local economy.

What’s on: London isn’t just a great place to make films, but it’s also a great place to see them, with the capital’s cinemas always hosting varied screenings. From 13 to 24 March, it’ll be BFI Flare at BFI Southbank, showcasing the latest LGBTQIA+ films and hosting special events.

WE RECOMMEND

• OnLondon’s take on Gove’s review of the London Plan.
• How England’s cathedrals are getting a new lease of life and much-needed funding by hosting silent discos – though not everyone is happy about it.
• Why we should have a minister for pubs.
• A look inside the historic James Smith and Sons umbrella shop.
• Ghost town schools: families with young children leaving London.
• The Standard’s interview with City Hall’s Deputy Mayor for Culture and the Creative Industries, Justine Simons.

ELECTIONS INSIGHT

With a packed political year ahead, LCA’s Insight Team has been busy getting out and about giving our fact-filled elections presentations to our clients and associates. Last week, Nick Bowes, our MD of Insight, and Emily Clinton, our Insight Manager, were delighted to present to the team at Hydrock, setting out what is in store and the opportunities the next few months will bring.

DELIVERING CREATIVE COLLABORATION

LCA is pleased to be the Communications Partner for the first ever Creative Industries Property Summit, delivered by Movers & Shakers. This first-of-its-kind event brings together leaders in real estate and the creative industries for a day of discussion and illumination, identifying the value of cross-sector collaboration and sharing a mission to drive inclusive and equitable economic growth, as an agent for positive and purposeful change. Be part of the movement! 7 May at King’s Place, London – tickets available now.

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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