LDN Weekly – Issue 300 – 24 January 2024 – LDN300

Dear Reader,

This week’s LDN is a major landmark – it is our 300^th edition. To mark this occasion, we’ve a special introduction this week from LCA’s Chief Executive Jonny Popper and Robert Gordon Clark, Senior Adviser and Partner.

Thank you for your continued readership and onwards to the 600^th edition!

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight
nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

“Our flagship newsletter reaches an amazing milestone with its 300^th edition today. Over many years, LDN has been at the heart of our work – our mission is to be insightful and informative, providing our loyal readers with the latest goings on in London’s built environment and political worlds and beyond. I am regularly reminded when I’m out and about how LDN remains a staple for so many decision makers across the sector, so I hope you continue to look forward to it landing in your inbox for a long time to come.

As we look ahead, 2024 is a year of elections. In May, London chooses the next Mayor and before the year is out there’ll be a General Election, with every new poll continuing to point to a likely change of Government. During this time of change and uncertainty, LDN will continue to keep you up to date with the key developments and what we at LCA think they mean for you and your organisations.

It is also a milestone year for LCA as we celebrate our 25^th birthday. From the humble beginnings of Robert and I sitting in a small studio with a stereo, a coffee machine and about four clients, we are hugely proud of the team we have built in the business today, and to represent our brilliant and interesting clients.

You will hear more from us over the coming weeks and months as we develop our service offer and continue to diversify our work. Thank you for all those of you who have worked with us, and of course for your loyal readership of LDN. Its slightly daunting to think that the celebration of the 600^th edition will come in January 2030!”

Jonny Popper

“It was 18 October 2017 when we issued the first LDN In Short and today is the 300^th edition.  LDN In Short replaced our long standing but rather bulky LCA Monthly, which no longer worked in the ever faster-paced world we live in.  But fear not! We aren’t going to move to a daily update to fill your in box. The feedback we get from you all is that you all like your regular weekly fix of LDN and especially the sharper format recently devised by Nick Bowes, Emily Clinton and Dan Reast - our super Insight team.

Looking back at the first edition in 2017 was interesting. Sadiq Khan was of course Mayor and was intervening in a couple of schemes.  Meanwhile transport funding pressures meant a temporary delay to some tube trains – the good news is, these are now being built, but the funding pressures haven’t gone away! At national level boundary changes were being mooted, something which has now come into effect for the next General Election – the implications of which are worth reading here. 

And back then it was reported that the Tories had a 'London problem' and there was yet another round table on the never-ending issue of housing, this one with the PM and Housing Minister (Alok Sharma) number six of 16 since 2010.  So, some things really haven’t changed….”

Robert Gordon Clark

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THE PHONEY WAR IS OVER

Away they go: The race for City Hall really got going over the past week – it’s now under 100 days till polling day with the Evening Standard declaring “the capital is crying out for a proper contest”.

And the winner is….? Close City Hall watchers bear the scars of previous Mayoral elections and the tortured wait for the result. No more temperamental electronic counting machines, instead votes will be counted manually, with London Elects, the body running the election, announcing we’ll all have to wait until 4 May  to find out who’s won.

Whisper it: and a day later than that if the General Election also falls on 2 May.

Fare’s fair: Sadiq Khan unveiled a headline-grabbing twelve month TfL fares freeze just days after confirming that free school meals in primary schools would continue for another year. Khan’s City Hall budget sees a £500m pre-election splurge with more cash for the police, the ULEZ vehicle scrappage scheme, more toilets on the Tube network and pay rises for Tube staff.

Assault course: In response, Khan’s opponents query where the Mayor had been hoarding cash after pleading poverty over recent years. Tory Assembly Member Neil Garratt accused Khan of trying “to buy the votes of Londoners” and Tory Mayoral candidate Susan Hall warned that making car drivers pay-per-mile was the only way Khan’s freeze could be afforded.

Freedom! In a speech at the Fabian Society conference last Saturday, Khan also focused on Brexit, calling for freedom of movement for young people in and out of the European Union – a move likely to go down well with Green and Lib Dems, whose votes Khan needs more than ever. 

Some might say: other votes look lost to Khan, with 90s rocker Noel Gallagher launching an expletive-laden rant at the Mayor’s response to knife crime. 

Blue Monday: Hall announced she’d invest £200m more into policing if she’s elected Mayor although downplayed whether she’ll adopt Boris Johnson’s famed suburbs-first donut strategy claiming she was “campaigning everywhere”.

Hell-BC: Elsewhere, Hall appeared on Nick Ferrari’s show on LBC, and had a bit of a bad day, failing to know how much a bus ticket cost and getting in a tangle over who owns Hammersmith Bridge.

Paul v Hall: No doubt to the annoyance of Hall’s campaign, former Minister for London and one time Tory Mayoral hopeful Paul Scully has claimed he was the ‘best candidate’ to beat Khan.

BEYOND CITY HALL

Numbers game: Polls continue to point to a Labour landslide at the next General Election, with the latest YouGov tracker giving Labour a 27-point lead over the Tories. Our Managing Director, Insight Nick Bowes has got his teeth into this and other recent polls.

Flashing blue lights: Worryingly for the Tories, this is a bigger lead than Blair’s Labour had at this stage in 1997, and, unlike in 27 years ago, the lead is widening. The poll also exposed how toxic the Tories are to younger voters - just 4% 16-24 year olds plan to vote Conservative, and not much better for those aged 25-49 (12%).

Two-isham: Lewisham Labour vote today to choose a candidate for the Mayoral by-election after Damian Egan resigned to fight the Kingswood by-election. The final two candidates are acting Mayor, Brenda Dacres and Cabinet Member for Finance, Amanda de Ryk. No date has yet been set for the by-election but it would seem likely to be 2 May to coincide with the London Mayoral contest.

STOP PRESS: Breaking news is that Brenda Dacres has won the selection.

Tri-election: Three by-elections last week gave a brief insight into the mood of voters across the capital. Labour comfortably held Tooting Broadway in Wandsworth with an increased vote share and the Lib Dems won in Hampton North and Teddington (the Tories have now been wiped out in Richmond, a borough the party controlled until 2018). The Tories sprung a surprise in Cazenove ward in Hackney, heaping more pressure on the local Labour Party and showing that there is still life in the inner London Tories.

PLANNING POTENTIAL

Break point: Earlier this week, Deputy Mayor for Planning Jules Pipe called-in expansion plans by the All England Lawn Tennis Club in Wimbledon. The plans, for a new 8,000-seat stadium and 38 tennis courts, were granted planning permission by Merton Council but rejected by Wandsworth Council.

Tiebreak: Plans have proven controversial as they involve construction on the Grade II*-listed Wimbledon Park and the removal of 300 trees. Over 16,000 people have signed a petition against the plans. Both local MPs, Stephen Hammond (Conservative, Wimbledon) and Fleur Anderson (Labour, Putney), also oppose the plans – both happen to be marginal constituencies. Due to the rapid approach of the Mayoral election, it seems unlikely that a decision on the plans will be made before May.

Decision decisions: Friday sees the public hearing for the called-in planning application for the redevelopment of the Aberfeldy Estate in Tower Hamlets. The plans, by Poplar Harca and EcoWorld, were originally rejected by Tower Hamlets Council planning committee, but are recommended for approval by GLA officers with the final decision falling to Deputy Mayor for Planning, Jules Pipe. Residents voted in favour of the plans in a 2020 ballot…the council then unanimously rejected the plans last year…before being called-in by City Hall.

Action! The Secretary of State‘s decision on CO-RE and Mitsubishi Estate’s plans for the redevelopment of the ITV Studios on the Southbank should be just a few weeks away. In December, Michael Gove pushed back his final say for the third time, with it now due to be made either on or before 6 February.

From our studios on the South Bank: The plans, which were approved by Lambeth Council and waved through by the Mayor, include the delivery of two buildings of 25 and 14 storeys providing 79,000 sq m of office and commercial space, 7,000 sq m of cultural space and 4,000 sq m of retail and hospitality space.

Obstacles ahead: Gove’s quick review of the London Plan is reportedly sat in his in-tray, so we await the publication of the findings and the Secretary of State’s next move. Pre-empting this, the Mayor came out fighting, dubbing the review a “desperate political stunt", slamming the Government for "undermining devolution to distract from their record of failure".

• As mentioned above, Deputy Mayor for Planning Jules Pipe has officially called-in plans by the All England Lawn Tennis Club for the delivery of a new 8,000 seat stadium and 38 tennis courts on Wimbledon Park, with the Mayor having recused himself after having expressed support for the plans in 2021. The plans were approved by Merton Council but refused by Wandsworth Council in the autumn 2023.
• Beltane and Angelo Gordon have received planning consent from Kensington and Chelsea Council for their proposals to refurbish and extend the 12-storey Newcombe House at Notting Hill Gate. The site was previously subject to an application by previous owner Brockton Capital in 2017, which was rejected twice by the council. This was subsequently overturned in 2018 by the Mayor of London who approved Brockton’s plans, but was then called-in by the Secretary of State who then chose not to overturn the Mayor’s decision in 2020.
• Telford Homes and Sainsbury’s have received planning consent from Redbridge Council for their mixed-tenure residential development at the site of the former Britannica Works factory in Ilford. The application was originally approved in 2022 but revised with a redesign of the residential towers in line with new regulations regarding second staircases. The scheme comprises 837 homes (35% affordable), including 18 family townhouses and 447 student beds in seven towers up to 36 storeys, alongside 6,813 sq m of public space and a new Sainsbury’s supermarket.
• JP Morgan’s plans to retrofit its eight-storey office building at 65 Gresham Street have been approved by the City of London, with  the local authority calling it an ‘exemplary retrofit scheme.’ The developer proposes adding an additional four floors to the 270,000 sq ft building, while retaining 70% of the building’s structure and delivering ‘dynamic and well-connected’ public realm improvements.
• As included above, GLA planning officers have recommended that Deputy Mayor of London Jules Pipe grant planning consent for Poplar HARCA and EcoWorld’s Aberfeldy New Village plans. The scheme would demolish 330 homes, replaced with 1,565 new homes of which 451 would be affordable. Tower Hamlets council rejected the plans in February 2023, despite residents voting overwhelmingly in favour in a ballot and planning officers recommending approval. A public hearing will be held on 26 January.
• The GLA has selected Vistry Group’s Countryside Partnerships as its preferred developer for its 739-home (60% affordable) development in Colindale. Planned for the site of the former Hendon Met Police training centre and driving school, the proposals include the delivery of five buildings up to 15 storeys in height.
• Campaigner Aysen Dennis, who challenged Southwark Council and Notting Hill Genesis’s regeneration of the Aylesbury Estate, has won a landmark judicial review of the developers’ attempt to push through major changes to the latest 580-home phase through non-material amendments (S73s) submitted without public consultation. The ruling has set a precedent in planning law to close a ‘loophole’ for using S73s to make major changes, instead of minor amendments, which will mean the scheme reverts to its originally consented plans. 

• Crest Nicholson’s Chief Executive, Peter Truscott, has announced his retirement later this year, to be replaced by Persimmon’s Chief Commercial Officer Martyn Clark.
• Chief Executive of the Battersea Power Station Development Company, Simon Murphy, is to step down after 11 years with the project. Murphy first joined as Chief Financial Officer in 2012.
• Labour MP for Westminster North Karen Buck has announced that she will not be standing at the next General Election. Buck was first elected to Parliament in 1997 and was previously a Labour councillor on Westminster City Council.
• Westminster City Council has announced Cabinet changes, with Councillor Nafsika Butler-Thalassis elected as Deputy Leader as a replacement for Councillor Tim Roca, while also retaining the Adult Social Care, Public Health and Voluntary Sector portfolio. Councillor Ryan Jude has joined the Cabinet in the new Climate, Ecology and Culture portfolio. The Conservative Group on the council has also elected Cllr Paul Swaddle as its new Leader of the Opposition.
• Andrew Travers has been appointed as the interim Chief Executive of Southampton City Council. Travers previously served as Chief Executive of Lambeth and Barnet and was a trustee at Centre for London.  

LEVELLING DOWN?

Pyrrhic victory? Levelling up was the phrase which helped propel Boris Johnson to Downing Street in 2019 but five years later the landscape feels very different. Whoever wins May’s London mayoral election and a later General Election will inherit an extremely challenging set of conditions.

Left outside: Think tank Centre for Cities annual Cities Outlook reveals that no part of the UK has been effectively ‘levelled up’ with the average person £10,200 worse off than if the economy kept growing at pre-2010 trends. Proportion of children living in relative poverty has increased in every part of the country since 2010 – except in Belfast and Basildon.

Spare some change: In London, on average, income is £13,590 lower today than it would have been had pre-2010 levels of growth continued. Yet London has fared less badly than some parts of the country - Burnley in Lancashire has lost a whopping £28,090 in the same metric. In another blow to levelling up, London and the Greater South East’s role as the nation’s engine of employment creation saw the region taking 40.8% of all new jobs in 2022, up from 38.8% in 2010. This is despite housing costs in London become more unaffordable over time.

Nothing sweet here: The Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s latest Poverty Report revealed people living below the poverty line face a widening gap of income needed to escape poverty. Some six million people in absolute ‘very deep’ poverty have an income that falls short by an average of £12,800 of what is needed just to reach the poverty line.

Stunted growth: A report by think tank IPPR revealed a ‘double injustice’ whereby people living in England’s most deprived areas were nearly 1.5 times more likely to be economically inactive. The growing debate around poor quality homes has also led to the Housing Ombudsman, Richard Blakeway, calling for an independent Royal Commission to help “re-establish the link between housing and health”.

Money where it’s due: The All-Party Parliamentary Group for Left Behind Neighbourhoods has said that the Government’s UK Shared Prosperity Fund (the replacement for the EU’s Structural Funds) is in need of a rethink. The Group’s inquiry found ‘glaring regional disparities’ in how the fund is allocated and calculated, with ‘low priority’ given to areas with high levels of deprivation in the Government’s funding formula.

No country for old men and women: Pensioners and older people are also seeing a squeeze on their finances, with charity Independent Age warning of a rise in older private tenants being priced out of cities and forced to relocate to areas with already-stretched public services. Fourteen of the 20 authorities seeing the largest drops in older private rented householders were in inner London – those seeing the biggest increases are coastal towns and areas around outer London.

Up for a fight: Growing pressures on local authority funding has seen councils stepping up their lobbying for more investment from Whitehall. At an emergency summit in Parliament on Monday, council leaders and officers urged the Government to step in, particularly with the surging cost of temporary accommodation. Eastbourne Council are now spending 49p out of every £1 collected in Council Tax on temporary accommodation.

Hovering Havering: Cllr Ray Morgon, leader of Havering Council, said that without help from the Government, the current financial crisis could see ‘the end of local government.’ Morgon urged Whitehall to commit to a £54m loan otherwise the council could be ‘basically bankrupt’ within six weeks.

A room with views: Mounting political concern at the financial plight of local government also saw over 40 Conservative MPs calling on the Prime Minister to provide extra funding. Perhaps in response to this growing alarm, the Government has stumped up £500m top-up funding for social care provision.  

WE RECOMMEND

• The City of London Corporation’s new report showing that the capital has retained its position as the top financial centre in the world.
• London Elects Returning Officer and City Hall Chief Executive Mary Harpley on the changes taking place with this year’s Mayoral election.
• Business LDN’s Muniya Barua’s on how providing funding for Transport for London would unlock tens of thousands of new homes.
• Create Street’s Nicholas Boys Smith’s verdict that the Metropolitan Line shows the ‘brilliance of Britain’.
• A coalition of charities warning that children and young people are experiencing poor mental health and wellbeing due to a failure to prioritise outdoor play and exercise in policy.
• Which eight London gastropubs have been included in the UK’s top 50.

WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT THE GRID

Our client, Josh Bullard, Director of Smart Energy and Sustainability at Hydrock, was featured in The Economist last week furthering the debate about how we ease pressure on the UK’s overburdened grid and help support our pathway to net zero. Read Josh’s letter here.

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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