LDN Weekly – Issue 298 – 21 December 2023 – A Year of Elections

Dear Reader,

Happy new year to you all.

In 113 days, Londoners go to the polls to elect a Mayor and at some point, in the next twelve months, the country will choose a new Government.

We’ll hear a lot from our politicians in the coming months that is through the prism of these elections. It’s all about keeping controversial and difficult topics out of the news, a sprinkling of positive stories, focusing on tactical and short-term wins, confecting fights with and setting traps for your opponents.

Now, a bit of performative knockabout politics is nothing new – it always happens and always will. But there’s always the risk that playing politics turns what are crucial issues into little more than a game.

Take housing and planning – both have shot up the agenda in recent years. The main parties have sought to address voter concerns, yet they have struggled to juggle demands to build more homes with pressure from those parts of the country resisting development.

Just before Christmas, Michael Gove announced a quick review of the London Plan, the city’s spatial development bible. His criticism is that the Mayor is too focused on affordable homes, which is holding back development in the city. Gove has tasked a group of experts to identify where changes to policy might speed up delivery of homes, to initially report back to him on 15 January.

The London Plan is one of London’s most important devolved powers. Gove’s intervention is unprecedented and while it might be within his legal powers, it is certainly not within the spirit of the devolution agreement. Besides, the current plan was only approved three years ago – and, by all people, Gove’s predecessor, Robert Jenrick. The Government was happy then, now suddenly they aren’t. So, what’s changed?

Giving Gove the benefit of the doubt, he’s determined to speed up housing delivery in London and beyond. But being less kind, this could be seen as a mere political tactic – and a Labour Mayor presents a handy foil, in the same way as developers and housing associations have also been for Gove, both deflecting attention from his government’s record.

But Gove is circumventing democratic process and undermining the devolution settlement. And for what purpose? It doesn’t solve the challenging macroeconomic environment – the cost of borrowing, skills shortages, surging raw material costs. It doesn’t deliver the extra infrastructure investment needed to unlock substantial numbers of new homes in the east and south-east of the city.

This doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be a genuine debate about the Mayor’s record on home building (nor the Government’s, for that matter), and on what more needs to be done to solve London’s (and the nation’s) problems. But the coming election campaign surely presents a better time to have such a debate.

Besides, we understand that the London Plan is due for updating by middle of the next mayoral term and just as happened ahead of the 2016 election, officials have already started the early stage work to enable this, ready for who wins in May.

Where there might be consensus is that writing the London Plan (and in fact local plans too) takes too long. The current plan took nearly five years – a ridiculous length of time during which the world changed - there were two General Elections, Brexit and a pandemic. And much of the production timeline is dictated in nauseating detail by Whitehall. To cap it all, Robert Jenrick took nearly 14 months to finally sign off the current plan. With a rewrite underway, gaining speed after May, all sides could work to speed up production of a new plan.

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight
nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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MAYORAL RUNNERS AND RIDERS

As we begin this bumper election year, LDN brings you the latest runners and riders all hoping to be Mayor of London after 2 May:

Sadiq Khan (Labour)

First up, Sadiq Khan. The incumbent. Bookies favourite. Mayor since 2016, after serving as local councillor and then MP for his home of Tooting. Prior to politics, cut his teeth as a combative human rights lawyer. Seeking an unprecedented third term as Mayor, still ahead in the polls but after eight years at City Hall must find ways to come across as fresh to the voters. Will have to defend his record, with his opponents likely to attack him on violent crime and the growing housing crisis.

Susan Hall (Conservative)

Khan’s main challenger, Hall has served as a local councillor and leader of Harrow Council, and on the London Assembly since 2017. Made a name for her dogged scrutiny of the Mayor in Assembly hearings. Was the surprise choice for Conservative candidate, emerging from a controversial selection process. Self-described as a ‘bloody difficult woman’ and guaranteed to speak her mind – has already led to some controversy over historic social media posts. Opposed to building on the Green Belt and in the suburbs, favours family sized homes with gardens over tall buildings. Will cancel ULEZ expansion on day one and is against LTNs.

Zoë Garbett (Green Party)

Garbett works for the NHS and is a Green Party councillor in Hackney (representing Dalston) and stood in the recent Hackney Mayoral by-election (coming second). Previously, Garbett lead on the development of the Green’s manifesto for the 2021 Mayoral election. The Green Party finished third in the last mayoral contest with nearly 8% of the vote. With the move to first past the post, the Greens will be under pressure to match that result this time round.

Rob Blackie (Lib Dem)

Relatively unknown outside of Lib Dem circles, but with a track record of campaigning on liberal causes and fighting elections. Blackie previously stood for the Lib Dems in the 2012, 2016 and 2021 London Assembly elections and is number two on their list this time round. Has worked in campaigns, social media and digital over a number of years. As with the Greens, the Lib Dems will come under pressure from Labour and the Tories desperate to squeeze their vote.

Howard Cox (Reform)

Standing on a platform to ‘get London moving’. Cox runs Fair Fuel UK, which has campaigned over many years on reducing the cost of running diesel and petrol vehicles. Would get rid of the whole of ULEZ on day one, scrap LTNs and 20mph zones and make cycle lanes smaller. Also committed to triple both the number of affordable homes and the number of police officers. A strong Reform showing is likely to eat into the Tory support.

Independents

So far, six independent candidates have officially declared. Given the next Mayoral election will be first past the post, and that independent candidates last time secured over 10% of the vote, how well they fare this time could have an impact on the outcome.

Shyam Batra is a property and finance broker who wants to be Mayor as “the city is broken”. He will abolish the ULEZ, the congestion charge and 20mph speed limits and introduce a finance scheme to get everyone on the property ladder.

Natalie Campbell, CEO and Chancellor of the University of Westminster, who failed last year to make the Tory shortlist, has committed to build a manifesto around a survey of Londoners’ views. On housing, she’s said that London “needs the right homes in the right places" and must create a "credible rental market".

Amy Gallagher is standing as the SDP’s candidate for Mayor. Gallagher is a former nurse and daughter of a taxi driver. She is vocal on social media in criticising the woke agenda. 

Investment banker Tarun Ghulati says that London has lost its mojo, and vows to scrap the ULEZ, transform the capital’s roads, build more police stations and level up within London.

Rayhan Haque claims that London is “in crisis” and the political status quo “is broken”. His five campaigning priorities are: more affordable homes, tackling soaring crime, free school meals for primary school pupils, expanding bike hire to outer London and making sure the city is “AI Ready”.

Haringey gym owner Andreas Michli is standing after being “radicalised by lockdown”. He opposes ULEZ and LTNs, would halt net zero targets, wants to offer practical support to help Londoners be healthy and get fit, and would professionalise the Met Police by focusing on improving physical fitness and martial arts.

Rumoured and Mulling

Others who might enter the race include Laurence Fox, who stood in 2021 for Reclaim (with the backing of Reform), gaining 1.9% of the vote. Hinted on his social media recently he was mulling another go in May. Never far from controversy, with his polarising views and associations.

There is some speculation that Jeremy Corbyn might throw his hat in the ring, but it seems more likely that he’ll stand as an independent in his constituency of Islington North at the General Election, which he has represented since 1983. If he did stand, and with the switch to the first past the post system, it would be a blow to Khan and a boost for Hall.

George Galloway, who stood in 2016, gaining just over 1% of the vote. Three times an MP for three different constituencies, leaving his mark on London politics when capturing Bethnal Green and Bow for Respect from Labour in the 2005 General Election on the back of an anti-Iraq war campaign. Leader of the Workers Party since 2019.  Can never be underestimated for his ability to rabble rouse but unclear if he will get enough momentum to eat into Khan’s votes except perhaps in Tower Hamlets.

Count Binface, who stood last time, gaining 1% of the vote. Also stood in the 2019 General Election and in the 2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election where his policies included bringing back Ceefax and renaming London Bridge to Phoebe Waller Bridge.

GENERALLY SPEAKING

AND THEY’RE OFF! This year is set to be one of the biggest years for national elections both in the UK and overseas with 76 countries holding votes – that’s over half the world’s population being treated to Election Night Specials in various forms and languages.

That is the question: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has attempted to put a stop to the guessing game for when the UK’s own General Election will take place, stating his ‘working assumption’ is for a vote in the second half of this year, saying he has ‘lots…to get on with.’

Cluck cluck? Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats accused Sunak and the Conservatives of ‘squatting’ in 10 Downing Street and even the Daily Mirror chicken made a return. In response, Labour Leader Keir Starmer spoke of ‘project hope’ for a country ‘crying out for change’ but is reported to have told Labour MPs to be ‘prepared for any eventuality’, including an earlier election.

So, no change then? While the wider UK seemingly won’t be treated to a General Election in the spring, worryingly for Sunak, the Conservatives face two tricky by-elections. Wellingborough and Rushden sees outgoing MP Sir Peter Bone’s partner Helen Harrison up for the Conservatives against former Newham councillor Genevieve Kitchen for Labour. Meanwhile…

Green and pleasant land: Former Energy Minister Chris Skidmore resigned as MP for his Kingswood seat, attacking the Government’s legislation issuing new licences for oil and gas drilling in the North Sea. Damian Egan has been confirmed as Labour’s candidate for the by-election and has today announced his resignation as Mayor of Lewisham (with his deputy Brenda Dacres taking over in the interim).

Not for turning? Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones, has said that Labour’s flagship £28bn green prosperity plan would be ‘ringfenced’ to ensure the money is not a ‘cover’ for other spending. Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham has urged the leadership to maintain its commitment, having been subject to much speculation in recent months.

Illuminating: There’s also the potential we could see a further by-election in Blackpool. Local MP Scott Benton faces a 35-day suspension from Parliament after breaching parliamentary standards, which could lead to a by-election in his Blackpool South seat if at least 10% of his constituents call for a vote.

A towering inferno: Benton’s Blackpool North neighbour and Pensions Minister Paul Maynard is also facing investigation from the MPs expenses watchdog IPSA over reportedly using taxpayer money to fund local party campaigns.

Significant others: Both main parties face challenges from smaller parties, particularly from the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK. Reform UK will be standing candidates in all seats while the Liberal Democrats are ramping up a focused campaign in so-called ‘Blue Wall’ seats in the Home Counties.

Where we stand: State of the polls at the moment makes difficult reading for the Conservatives - YouGov’s latest poll shows Labour holding a 22-point lead. With election battles ramping up, LDN will be there following every twist and turn.

• The Government’s commissioned review of the London Plan, announced in December 2023, is reportedly scheduled to be delivered to the Secretary of State by 15 January 2024. The review is aimed at investigating whether the London Plan can support additional capacity for housebuilding or drive additional urban regeneration.
  
  
• MSG’s plans for the proposed Sphere entertainment venue in Stratford have been formally withdrawn, with the developer saying that it had become a ‘political football.’ The LLDC granted consent for the 21,400-seat arena plans in March 2022, with the Mayor of London refusing permission in November 2023 on grounds of light pollution and impact on residents. The Secretary of State later called in the decision in December 2023.
  
  
• British Land has submitted its plans to retrofit and transform the 36-storey Euston Tower into a sustainable science and technology-centred development, designed in collaboration with the local community. British Land proposes re-designing the tower’s façade to expose its central core and retain 31% of its existing structure, delivering a new 32-storey tower with a combined 65,495 sq m of office and lab-enabled space, plus inclusive spaces for community and local business use.
  
  
• The London Tunnels Plc has submitted plans to the City of London Corporation and Camden Council to open to the public for the first time a series of deep underground wartime tunnels that span 86,000 sq ft under High Holborn. Kept secret by the Government for decades, the tunnels provided the inspiration for ‘Q Branch’ in the James Bond novels, with author Ian Fleming having worked there as Admiralty Liaison officer in the 1950s. LCA has supported the project from the beginning, securing widespread international press acclaim and consulting with communities on plans that could draw over two million visitors per year. For further information, visit here.
  
  
• Yoo Capital’s plans to redevelop and refurbish Shepherd’s Bush Market into a mixed-use commercial scheme have finally been approved by Hammersmith and Fulham Council. The proposals include adding new market stalls and shop units alongside incubation space for life science companies and 40 new affordable homes.
  
  
• The Far East Consortium and Sainsbury’s have withdrawn their plans to deliver a 950-home (over 20% affordable) development at Bath Street Square in Whitechapel citing ‘market uncertainty’ and the viability of the scheme. The plans also include a four-star hotel and a replacement Sainsbury’s supermarket. The site has been long contested for redevelopment with initial plans rejected in 2017, followed by plans a 650-home development comprised of nine buildings of up to 20 storeys.
  
  
• Westminster City Council is redesigning its £350m regeneration of the Ebury Estate in Pimlico to comply with fire safety regulations for second staircases in residential buildings over 18m in height. Six buildings will have changes to the total footprint and balcony designs, while two buildings will be increased in height with the proposed community centre relocated. The plans for 781 homes (53% affordable) were approved in April 2021 across six residential blocks up to 18 storeys.
  
  
• Westminster City Council has designated a Tesco Metro supermarket on Dean Street, Soho as an Asset of Community Value, formally recognising the shop as a key asset to local life following an official nomination made by the Soho Society. The council previously refused plans in October 2023 from Hines to demolish and redevelop the building into a seven-storey office-led development, including creating a proposed open plan ‘Bazaar’ retail space on the ground floor and basement.
  
  
• CLI Dartriver has submitted plans to the City of London to refurbish and extend its seven-storey office block at 120 Old Broad Street. The proposals include adding new terraces and rooftop pavilion to the 48,869 sq ft office and retail space, replacing the current façade and windows to improve natural light levels.
  
  
• Kingston Council has announced it is exploring proposals for safeguarding the future of its historic Guildhall in Kingston town centre, aiming to maximise its public and community use and secure ‘cost effective’ ways of utilising its heritage as a community asset.
  
  

• The Regulator of Social Housing has appointed Abigail Davies as its new Head of Policy, Strategy and Impact. The former Savills consultant has also held policy roles in the Chartered Institute of Housing.
  
  
• Former Research Director at Centre for London, Claire Harding, has begun a new role as Head of Housing Strategy and Insight at Greenwich Council.
  
  
• As mentioned above, elected Mayor of Lewisham Damien Egan has resigned following his selection as Labour’s candidate for the Kingswood by-election. Egan’s mayoral duties will be fulfilled by Deputy Mayor Brenda Dacres in the interim until a by-election is held.
  
  
• The Conservative Party has selected triathlete Danielle Dunfield-Prayero as its candidate to contest the Wimbledon seat at the next General Election. Incumbent Stephen Hammond will be retiring as an MP, with both the Liberal Democrats and Labour seeking to win the marginal seat.
  
  
• Leading contractor BAM Construction’s Executive Director of Construction for UK and Ireland, James Wimpenny, has announced his retirement from the end of January 2024. Wimpenny has been with BAM for 38 years, joining as a management trainee in 1985.
  
  
• Managing Director of the PRCA, Renna Markson, is to step down from her role in February after six years with the association. Markson was promoted to the role following the death of Francis Ingram in March 2023.
  
  
• Former Artistic Director at the Theatre Royal Stratford East, Philip Hedley, has died aged 85. Hedley has been attributed as a ‘pioneer’ in commissioning productions with diversity and local community represented in mainstream theatre.
  
  
• Sir Martin Laing, the former CEO and Executive Chairman of John Laing Group, has died aged 81. Laing spearheaded the FTSE 250 construction firm until its acquisition in 2001 to O’Rourke.
  
  
• Brian Salinger, former Leader of Barnet Council, Mayor, and Conservative ward councillor for Friern Barnet and Oakleigh, has died. Salinger led the council’s investment into the borough’s primary schools and its housing estate regeneration in the mid-2000s.
  
  
• Former political lobbyist and co-founder of the Labour Party think tank Progress (now Progressive Britain), Derek Draper, has died aged 56.

New Year's Honours List 2024

Several figures from London’s politics and the built environment have been honoured in the New Year’s Honours List 2024 including:

• Siobhan McDonagh, MP for Mitcham and Morden, awarded damehood for public service.
• Gerald Ronson, Managing Director of property developer Heron International, knighted for services to philanthropy and the Jewish community
• Patty Hopkins, co-founder of Hopkins Architects, made OBE for services to architecture.
• Lee Doyle, Chief Executive of Brentford FC Community Sports Trust, honoured with a BEM for services to sport and to the Brentford community.
• Graham Patterson, former Executive Director of City Building, made OBE for services to equality and inclusion in construction.
• David Farnsworth, Managing Director of City Bridge Foundation, made OBE for services to the voluntary sector.
• Patricia Brown, Director and Founder of Central, made MBE for services to the built environment.
• Fenella Leach, Chief Medical Officer and Deputy Chief Executive for the London Ambulance Service, made MBE for services to the NHS.
• Cllr Ian Henderson, Kensington and Chelsea Council, made OBE for services to the Kensington community.
• Spencer Drury, former leader of the Conservative Group on Greenwich Council, made MBE for services to public service.

2024 OUTLOOK

Foodie fortunes: The end of 2023 provided a mixed bag of stats when it came to London’s hospitality sector. Data showed that the number of new restaurants opening in the capital last year was close to the same number in 2019, though it was also widely reported that former Masterchef finalist and professional chef Tony Rodd announced the closure of his Copper & Ink restaurant in Blackheath, due to increasing costs from energy bills and the cost of living.

Retail recovered? Figures from the British Retail Consortium show that retail footfall fell by 1.4% in London during December, with the weather thought to be to blame for the drop in festive shoppers. For the hotels sector, things look a bit brighter, with experts optimistic about the next 12 months.

Book your tickets: As for what is on offer for Londoners and visitors alike in the next year, there is more than enough on offer, with a new immersive AI Elvis concert experience to open in November, following on from the success of ABBA Voyage. There are so many other cultural activities on offer that we have nowhere near enough space to list here. Thankfully, the Evening Standard and Time Out have done the hard work for us.

Future gazing: Looking slightly further ahead, in 2025, the Quentin Blake Centre for Illustration is set to open in Clerkenwell, while the British Museum has launched a tender for the redevelopment of a third of its galleries.

WE RECOMMEND

• The Standard’s London property forecast for the year ahead, looking at house prices, the rental sector and the delivery of new homes.
• OnLondon’s Dave Hill explainer on Conservative mayoral candidate Susan Hall’s pledge to scrap the ULEZ expansion.
• Popular culture’s take on the housing crisis.
• Which London pub is home to the capital’s best roast dinner.
• How rubble from the Blitz was used to create the ‘utopia of grassroots football’ in Hackney Marshes.

2023 REFLECTIONS, 2024 OPPORTUNITIES

Our clients have been reflecting on the built environment landscape in 2023 and providing their insights into what to expect from the year ahead. 

Bringing the year to a close, we heard from The Crown Estate in the Festive Special of Monocle’s podcast The Urbanist, on placemaking in London during the holiday season.

Avison Young UK, The Crown Estate, Patriarche UK and Legendre UK all provided commentary for CoStar’s 2023 review, while Avison Young UK also discussed the biggest central London office lettings of 2023 in the Evening Standard.

Looking to 2024, Avison Young UK and Legendre UK contributed to Building’s six predictions for 2024, and  Patriarche UK and Stanhope note what to expect from the Life Sciences sector this year in EG. Avison Young UK also spoke  to Drapers on the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead in the country’s retail sphere.

 PIONEERING ENERGY EFFICIENT BUILDING DESIGN

We’ve secured two wins for LCA client Baumschlager Eberle, with a feature in the latest episode of Monocle on Design and Inside Housing’s comment section.

Prof. Dietmar Eberle joins Monocle’s conversation on energy efficient building design, speaking about their innovative 2226 concept. Find out more and listen to the full episode here.

Director, Daniel Pöhner comments on the UK’s social housing landscape, looking at how it is essential to design for longevity, in the face of the climate crisis. Read more here. 

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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