LDN Weekly – Issue 239 – 12 October 2022 - Pro-Chaos Coalition?
PRO-CHAOS COALITION?
I can safely say that I have not witnessed such chaos at the top of government in all that time as we are witnessing now.
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LCA Partner & Senior Advisor Robert Gordon Clark We hope you enjoy this edition and if you don't already, do follow us on Twitter and Instagram and feel free to visit our website for more information on LCA’s team, services, and clients. Oh and a technical note: If you like hearing from us, make sure to add ldn@londoncommunications.co.uk to your contacts or ‘safe sender’ list – this will help ensure our news bulletin lands in your inbox.  EVOLVING CITYWhen it comes to London’s ‘fundamentals’ things do seem much as they always were, with major investors and occupiers continuing to read Central London as a safe bet. In the last week these have included pharma giant GlaxoSmithKline and big dog asset managers Blackstone. Clearly, though, these are not normal times and London’s housing market in particular seems headed for a reckoning. The latest forecasts are not great and we detect a tinge of panic in some quarters, but London is not alone in facing rising interest rates and build costs. Add to the mix that even luxury developers will freely admit that housing costs in the capital are, as they currently stand, “outrageous”. We all know though that London is extraordinarily, perhaps uniquely, adaptable. Look at how the transformation of King’s Cross has become an exemplar for regeneration or at how Battersea Power Station is now poised to celebrate its own reinvention. It’s not simply about bricks and mortar, or faceless market forces. The City of London Corporation’s upcoming “immersive theatre experience” is a microcosm of the mix of history, culture and commerce that makes London so appealing. If you’re still doubtful about London’s ability to learn new tricks, look no further than Tottenham Hotspur F.C., whose stadium is now regularly hosting NFL games . American football, in Haringey? Who would have believed that, ten years ago? NEW LABOUR AXISFive months after gaining Wandsworth and Westminster, Labour is keen to prove it can transform these traditionally Tory boroughs. In Wandsworth, Labour councillors have grabbed headlines after it emerged that they will not be attending the opening of the revamped Battersea Power Station later this week, saying that they would not ‘accept hospitality from property developers’. The Council has also in recent weeks announced several initiatives, including a possible review into a landlord licencing system for the Private Rented Sector and funding of over £5m to help residents amid the cost-of-living crisis. In Westminster, the Council has launched its first consultation on a partial review of their City Plan, announced plans to hold a residents’ ballots on the Church Street estate regeneration programme, announced an independent review of the Oxford Street District Programme, launched plans to install 500 additional Electric Vehicle charging points by March 2023, and launched a wide-ranging Fairer Westminster strategy. LOOKING TO 2024London Labour politicians are practically falling over each other to be selected as parliamentary candidates. The numbers are certainly on their side, with a recent poll by Survation putting Labour at 59% of the vote in the capital, the Conservatives at 22% and the Lib Dems at 13% - a much wider spread than that shown in national polls. While the MRP technique used by Survation comes with a long list of caveats, if this result were to be replicated at the polls, the Conservatives could be wiped out in the capital. In Kensington, won by the Conservatives’ Felicity Buchan in 2019 with a slim majority of just 150, there are no less than five contenders for the seat, namely Hammersmith & Fulham Councillor and Leader Stephen Cowan, former MP Emma Dent-Coad, Hackney Councillor and Cabinet Member Mete Coban, charity activist Joe Powell and Salman Shaikh, CEO of the Shaikh Group. Up in Finchley and Golders Green, arguably a battleground seat now held by Tory MP Mike Freer, Labour’s selection longlist includes former Hounslow Councillor Hanif Khan, Barnet Councillor Arjun Mittra, barrister Sarah Sackman and civil servant Ruth Ward. We covered some of the key East London selection battles last week: since then Sam Tarry, the incumbent Labour MP for the “safe” Ilford South seat, has been deselected, in favour of Redbridge Council leader Jas Athwal, who will now stand for the seat. A TALE OF THREE STATIONSBack to the theme of London’s evolution, London’s transport hubs remain major regeneration hotspots – and some are getting hotter. A joint venture between developers Sellar, transport operator MTR and Network Rail has unveiled a huge £1.5bn plan to redevelop Liverpool Street Station in the City of London. The plans comprise a new 16-storey block above the station, housing a hotel and office scheme, plus a £450m programme of infrastructure works including new entrances and concourse, improved step-free access and more. Cue concerns by heritage groups, fretting about how the plans will affect the façade of the Grade II listed Andaz hotel, even though the public consultation itself only begins in late November. Meanwhile, a partnership between Newham Council, London Legacy Development Corporation (LLDC), Transport for London (TfL) and Network Rail have begun consulting on early plans, worth “anywhere from £300m up to and beyond £1m” for “transforming Stratford Station and improving the surrounding areas”. While the content of those plans is less clear at this stage, it is hoped that infrastructure improvements to Britain’s busiest rail station can enable the construction of up to 1,000 homes and improve local connectivity with Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park and Stratford Town Centre. Over in West Central, HS2’s demolition and enabling works at Euston Station are well underway and here, the discussion is currently focused on… spoil. LONDON PLANNING ROUNDUP
PEOPLE NEWS
 PLANNING CONFUSIONThe Government’s drip-feed of policy briefings and constant rescheduling of major policy statements is starting to get slightly ridiculous. It's also extremely annoying for the LCA Insight Team, who make a point of being on top of these things. Earlier this week, The Guardian reported that Levelling Up Secretary Simon Clarke was set to launch a ‘reset’ of planning in a speech on 19 October, but today The Times suggested that planning reforms will not be unveiled in full until after the Chancellor’s fiscal statement, brought forward from 23 November to 31 October. In the meantime, we’ve been treated to a cavalcade of rumours about what those reforms might contain, with The Times hinting at softened affordable housing requirements and environmental regulations and The Telegraph floating the idea of allowing the delivery of homes on brownfield sites on the Green Belt, as well as extending Permitted Development Rights and launching a review of the housing market in England. While ministers tinker endlessly with policy, the latest Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities statistics show that the number of planning applications submitted to local authorities in the second quarter of 2022 were down 17% compared to the same period last year, with the number of permissions down 12% over the same period. In other DLUHC news, the Department has given the owner of a 15-storey residential building in Stevenage 21 days to commit to rectifying fire safety issues, or face legal action. Grey GR, which is the first organisation to face action by the Government’s Recovery Strategy Unit, has reportedly failed to address the building’s safety issues for two years and bills for remediation work have been passed on to leaseholders. HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE CRUNCHDelivering on the Johnson Government’s pledge to build “40 new hospitals in England by 2030” was always going to be hard. It’s now got a whole lot harder. Late last month, Therese Coffey’s “first major intervention” as Health Secretary was to release a package of measures “to ensure the public receives the best possible care this winter and next” – including commitments to “accelerate” the hospital building programme. While welcoming the plans in principle, NHS Providers have since warned that market “turbulence” is pushing project costs upwards and complained that the Government refuses to clarify how it will enable Trusts to cover these. It was meanwhile reported by the Health Services Journal that the Government is tightening its control over spending on NHS capital programmes, potentially creating “an additional bottleneck delaying important spending decisions.” Such delays could be terminal for some hospitals, as underlined by recent Freedom of Information requests by the Lib Dems and New Civil Engineer. These confirmed longstanding fears that parts of no less than 20 existing hospitals across England, run by 18 individual NHS Trusts, have ‘roofs at risk of collapse’, only some of which have secured funding to remediate the issue. RENT CAP CONCERNSThe future is also looking tight for both Registered Providers and social tenants. The government is consulting on options for capping social housing rent increases for the coming financial year, with 5% put forward as DLUHC’s preferred option. Analysis carried out by the G15 group of London’s biggest housing associations has found that a 5% rent cap could see their rental income fall by £1.52bn over the next five years. An impact assessment published by DLUHC itself indicates that the cost to housing associations and councils could be as much as £7.4bn over five years. Beyond rent revenues, credit ratings agency S&P has warned that a widening gap between inflation and rent increases also threatens housing providers’ creditworthiness. It is not only landlords that are feeling the squeeze, however, with tenants in some housing associations reportedly considering collective action up to and including withholding payment of increased rents. DLUHC describes the 5% option as an “appropriate balance” between the need to protect the most vulnerable households and enabling landlords to mitigate some of the impact of rising costs. 
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