Dear Reader,
The votes are counted, the results are (nearly all) in and there’s no other word to describe Labour’s performance other than ‘landslide’. Try hard to think of alternatives, flick through the Thesaurus, but ultimately it will always come back to the ‘l’ word.
Let’s start with the hard, plain facts - Labour has a majority over all other parties of 170. This is the second largest majority this side of 1945. Labour doubled their representation in Parliament. The Conservatives lost two in every three of their MPs - and in doing so, lost seats to Labour, the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens. A great night for the Lib Dems sees them with a record number of MPs - a terrible night for the SNP sees them shrink back to single digits. Keir Starmer has the strong-and-stable mandate necessary to see out a full five year term - and perhaps the foundations for a Labour government beyond that.
Scratch away a bit more at the result and there are sub-texts and subtleties that will get more coverage in the coming days. Labour had some sticky results, Reform ate away at Labour’s vote in the north and Midlands, while taking chunks out of Tory support in the south, leading to some crazy results. While not winning as many MPs as they’d like - or as the exit poll predicted - their share of the vote wrought serious damage in constituencies across the country.
Yet, while a truly terrible night for the Conservatives, it was not quite the asteroid-hitting, extinction-level event that some of the models over recent weeks had predicted. With over 100 MPs, the party survives to live another day. Where it goes next is determined by who - out of the MPs who clung on - takes on the mantle of leader and how the party responds to being in opposition and to the seemingly irresistible catnip of Nigel Farage.
While Labour won big in terms of the number of seats won, at 35% of the vote, this represents the lowest share for any single party government in history. It’s lower than 2005 when Tony Blair won a 66 seat majority - and five percentage points lower than 2017 when Jeremy Corbyn didn’t even win a majority. Their victory is broad, but it isn’t deep.
But that’s the quirk of the first-past-the-post system - Labour did the best job of any party in holding together a coalition of voters while the Conservatives lost chunks of support to Reform, Lib Dems, Labour and even the Greens. Labour’s vote was also the most efficiently spread across the country - with strong support in all parts of England, as well as Wales and Scotland, it can lay claim to be the party of the Union.
In this LDN General Election Special, we go into detail about the dramatic moments from overnight and look at what happened up and down the country. Tory-free Wales, a dreadful evening for the SNP with Labour rampant in Scotland, swathes of the traditionally blue Home Counties now mottled yellow and red, the West Country now home to a scattering of Tory MPs, the north and Midlands a sea of red.
In London, it wasn’t the wipeout for the Tories some had predicted. Yet, at nine this is still a record low for the party in London - and inner London is now Conservative-free for the first time ever. Elizabeth Campbell, leader of Kensington & Chelsea Council, is now the lone senior Tory left in inner London. Yet Labour’s vote share fell sharply in London - due to a mix of independents standing under pro-Gaza banners and a surge in the Green vote. Perhaps this is the shape of things to come, the source of Labour’s future problems in the capital.
A stunning political alignment falls into place - Labour in charge nationally, running Wales, the dominant force in local government and in charge of every Metro Mayor bar one. The party will need to make the most of what could be a brief window if it is to be truly radical.
Starmer will have caught a couple of hours rest this morning, and he’ll need it as there’s no slacking in the coming days. The new Government, despite debilitating exhaustion, will be keen to get going as soon as possible.
Further down, we run through the likely timeline for the coming weeks and months, but the headlines are… expect ministerial appointments to start today (with at least two new names following defeats for two shadow cabinet members)… and complete over the weekend… MPs sworn in from Tuesday and the Speaker elected… Starmer will be in Washington for the NATO Summit next Tuesday to Thursday… the King’s Speech and State Opening of Parliament is on 17 July… a compressed Summer Recess during August… a Financial Statement in mid-September before Party Conferences at the end of September. And…breathe!
Thanks to the Insight team for putting in a strong shift this morning, despite little if any sleep last night. In the coming weeks, we will bring you all the latest news as the new Government get to work.
P.S. We have placed the Labour majority as 170 seats, but until the full results are declared this remains a holding figure. The Institute for Government has suggested a range of 174-178.
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First minutes to last resort: With the black door closing behind Starmer, he and his top officials will get down to business, meeting key civil servants including the Cabinet Secretary. It’s in these first moments that a new Prime Minister takes the awesome responsibility for the country’s nuclear arsenal and must pen the letters of last resort.
Tool Makers Son to Cabinet Maker: Expect during late Friday afternoon for some of the top team to be confirmed in post, early enough for them to swing by their new departments. At the very least, the Chancellor, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister. Barring major surprises, Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, Yvette Cooper and Angela Rayner will take up these roles - with Rayner also taking on the sprawling levelling up, housing and communities brief.
Something for the weekend: Over the weekend, final Cabinet and ministerial appointments will be announced. Worth noting that there’s no guarantee those in shadow roles will automatically fill the same jobs in government - not least as Labour had more shadow ministers than there are paid government ministerial roles.
Outside talent: Also, could we see some big names brought in from outside to bolster the new Government? There’s been talk of Baroness Louise Casey, outgoing John Lewis Chair Dame Sharon White and Chief Executive of Leeds City Council Tom Riordan in line for top roles.
Rabbits out of hats: Could we see an equivalent to 1997’s surprise announcement of Bank of England independence in the days ahead? A big, bold, shiny announcement not signalled in advance in the manifesto, but designed to signal intent? Given how much of this campaign Labour has copied from the 1997 playbook, we wouldn’t put it past them.
Beyond the weekend: New ministers face pretty packed in-trays, although little should come as a surprise, with Labour having prepared extensively in opposition a watch list of brewing crises… prison overcrowding, continued public sector strikes, Thames Water possibly going bust, NHS waiting lists, and further s114 notices leaving local government insolvent.
Keir’s Kitchen Cabinet: Key players in Starmer’s new team at No 10 look like being many of those who’ve worked close to him in opposition. Sue Gray (Chief of Staff), Matthew Doyle (Comms Supremo), Stuart Ingham (Policy Chief), Luke Sullivan (Political Director) and the indefatigable Jill Cuthbertson, the-power-behind-Keir’s-throne in a key wide-ranging organisational role in charge of the private office. Seems likely the architect of the winning campaign Morgan McSweeney will take on a more strategic role with one eye on the next General Election.
Swearing in: On Tuesday, the new Parliament meets formally for the first time, the Speaker is elected and MPs are officially sworn in. Luckily, Starmer will be one of the first to be sworn in, as he’ll be jetting off to Washington DC for the 75th anniversary NATO Summit from Tuesday until Thursday. A first chance to rub shoulders with Joe Biden and other world leaders.
Brass plates and mission boards: Now is the moment for any re-jigging of Whitehall departments or other machinery of government changes. Labour has well-developed plans to impose Mission Boards to drive delivery across their five core missions, with a squad of top cabinet ministers sitting above the boards, overseeing performance. It will be fascinating to watch how well the established Whitehall order responds to the imposition of a new and rather alien structure.
King’s Speech: Wednesday 17 July sees the State Opening of Parliament and the King’s Speech. We’ll see the new government’s legislative priorities - the bills they plan to bring forward in the coming months. Expect up to six sitting days for debates on the contents of the King’s Speech, with a vote at the end on the package as a whole.
What might we expect in it? Around 20 bills or so, across Labour’s priority areas including crime, border security, bus regulation, rail reform, constitutional changes (like lowering the voting age) and improved workers’ rights. Not all the priorities will require legislation, but we expect the King’s Speech to trumpet:
- A Finance Bill, enacting the new Government’s spending plans and tax changes, including legislating for the new fiscal look and establishing the Office for Value for Money
- Planning reform, committing to an immediate update of the National Planning Policy Framework to reinstate mandatory housing targets, a council review of Green Belt that can be released for housing, establish a New Towns Commission to select locations for big new urban centres, new rules on ‘Nationally Significant Infrastructure’ to ease building of reservoirs, data centres, prisons and other interventions designed to speed up decision making and get Britain building
- Rental reform, abolishing Section 21 so-called ‘No Fault Evictions’. While the new government is committed to further leasehold reform, we don’t expect this to be an immediate priority.
- Devolution bill, with more powers to Mayors and Councils across a suite of policy areas designed to promote growth, including skills, adult education, transport, planning and housing. In response, local authorities and Mayors will be legally bound to produce growth plans. A new Council of Nations and Regions could bring together First Ministers, Metro Mayors and Government ministers.
- GB Energy Bill, establishing the new publicly-owned clean energy company
Get London building: Given the new Government’s priority of getting Britain building, we anticipate a flurry of ministerial interventions focused on London, designed to unblock stalled decisions and unlock development…things to look out for include…. The new Transport Secretary greenlighting stalled house building on TfL car parks….loosening of the restrictions on spending affordable housing money…. lifting of the threat to direct the Mayor, Sadiq Khan’s London Plan….potentially some modest sums of money to assist projects like building Beam Park station in Havering and keep development work on the Docklands Light Railway extension to Thamesmead and the Bakerloo Line Extension alive.
A squeezed holiday: Parliament would usually head off for a long summer recess in the third week of July, not returning until September. Reports suggest the new Government, eager to make progress on their priorities (and mindful no doubt of the optics of going on holiday so soon after being elected), will squeeze the summer break to just a few weeks, no doubt to the frustration of the new intake of shattered MPs! Adding to obstacles in the way, there’s a three week recess at the end of September as MPs head off for party conferences.
Number crunching: The new Chancellor of the Exchequer will be keen to hold a Financial Statement but given Labour’s cast-iron manifesto commitment of insisting on the 10 weeks’ notice period for the Office for Budget Responsibility to prepare any forecasts, this won’t happen before mid-September. Expect a more thorough Spending Review later in the autumn - a rude awakening for the newly-elected government given the eye-watering gaps in many departmental budgets for 2024/5.
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