Social Housing Weekly - 24 June 2024

A word from us

Is this the longest election campaign ever? It certainly feels it. Many have accused the UK of having a deeply boring election - perhaps because the polling (see below) puts Labour so far ahead there doesn't seem to be much jeopardy.

Certainly, senior Conservatives and cabinet ministers seem to have given up, and are reported to be urging the Prime Minister to focus on ‘damage limitation’ and directing personal attacks towards Keir Starmer, rather than pushing actual policies. The change in campaign tactics comes as Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has been openly warning Reform UK voters that they could be handing Labour a ‘supermajority’.

So, the reigning Government has all but admitted defeat with ten days still to go. Meanwhile the Labour camp are increasingly talking of what they will do when, not if, they win - and have turned some attention to whether they cut MPs' summer holidays short and what to do with that extra legislative time if they do.

Call me old-fashioned but that kind of thinking makes me nervous. Pollsters have quietly admitted that it isn't easy to account for either tactical voting or the Reform factor in their established polling methodologies, and both are likely to be big factors in this election.

There is also the apathy point. We are still seeing an unusually large 'undecided' vote in the polls, and this hasn't narrowed as you might expect as the election comes closer. Pundits are expecting low turnout - bad for Conservatives who are worried their traditional voters won't bother turning up for a 'lost cause' but also potentially bad for Labour, who have only managed a 'best of a bad bunch' reputation with much of the electorate.

As far as I am concerned, it isn't over until the Fat Lady sings. And no, don't ask me to, I am not known for my perfect pitch. 

Harriet Shone

LCA Director

Tailor Your Experience

At LCA, we believe in catering our insights to your specific interests. Choose the content that aligns with your needs and stay informed about the areas that matter most to you.

Election Watch - by Peter Lord

Bleak polling news gets bleaker for Tories

With Conservative and Labour sources stating that they simply do not believe the government's defeat will be as bad as predicted by the polls, it is impossible to ignore the weight of polling evidence and what this means for particular seats. When a source called me last week to relay that the Tories were moving Runnymede to "battleground" status, the incredulity in their voice was tempered by resignation. Privately, and increasingly publicly, Tories are expecting to lose this election, and lose badly.

Historic landslide could wipe out cabinet

A new MRP election poll from Ipsos UK has forecast Labour winning 453 seats, inflicting the worst ever election defeat on the Conservatives, leaving them on 115 seats. The poll also found that 117 seats are ‘on a knife-edge’ as undecided/swing voters could tip the balance for the Conservatives or opposing parties. Three further constituency MRP polls forecast Labour to win the largest majority of any political party for over a century, higher than the party’s landslide victory in 1997 under Tony Blair.  Analysis of vote share suggests the Conservatives would lose up to three quarters of the current Cabinet, including (under Savanta’s poll) the Prime Minister’s seat in Richmond and Northallerton, where further Conservative Party campaign resources are being allocated to support Sunak’s re-election bid.

Tories mull over future leaders as one-nation group set to dominate party

The Times reports on the potential candidates for the Conservative Party leadership following the General Election. Home Secretary James Cleverly is not expected to seek the leadership while Cleverly’s predecessor Suella Braverman is reported to have been ‘deserted’ by allies and lacks support for the role. Other contenders include ministers Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat; and former Home Secretary Priti Patel. Research by The Times of YouGov MRP polling has found the majority of Conservative MPs likely to be elected on 4 July will be from the centre or ‘One Nation’ caucus of the party. Of 140 MPs forecast to be elected, only 34 are recorded as following similar views as potential leadership candidates Braverman, Badenoch and Patel.

Gove Watch

The imminent departure of Michael Gove from the green benches will deprive housing commentators of a rich vein of interventions, call-ins and policy pronouncements. Nonetheless, the verbose Housing Secretary has not quite gone yet, as he has proved by firing a parting shot at Labour's housing policies. Social Housing Weekly will be publishing a retrospective of Gove's time at DLUHC next week but we are careful not to think of this as an obituary. Something tells us that Gove will not be vanishing from public life...

"Vibes politics with a nasty edge"

In what is almost certainly one of his last interventions before the election, the inimitable Housing Secretary has hit out at Labour's housing policies, calling them "vibes politics with a nasty edge." Gove claimed in a Radio 4 interview that Labour sources had admitted they would "flatten the whole green belt" to ensure enough homes were built.

More complex leasehold bill was Gove's priority in dying days of Parliament

Meanwhile, Gove has defended not passing the Renters Reform Bill during the legislation ‘wash up’ period ahead of the General Election, calling it a "Sophie’s Choice" between the Renters Bill and Leasehold and Freehold Reform Bill. Speaking with Inside Housing, Gove said it was more important to pass the Leasehold Bill because it was "simply a more complex piece of legislation."

Policy watch

Building more homes the "only way" to deliver affordable rent

In the last few days, it has been reported that an incoming Labour government would introduce a rapid implementation of planning reforms and immediately ban Section 21 ‘no-fault’ evictions if elected to government. Shadow Housing Secretary Angela Rayner has said the party will end ‘rental bidding wars’ and cap the amount of upfront rent requested upfront for private rented properties.  Rayner said the ‘only real way’ to deliver affordable rents was through building more homes, confirming the party will not include rent controls in its reforms to the sector.

Labour's housing policies not radical enough, say critics

Analysis by the i has found Labour’s manifesto pledges on housing have been ‘watered down’ from previous policy pledges. The party’s previous pledge to increase homeownership to 70% has been replaced with a more general target, while protections for renters as part of the Government’s Renters Reform Bill, such as provision of longer notice periods and a ‘Renters’ Charter’, are not included in their manifesto. Chief Executive of RICS, Justin Young, has said politicians must pay more attention to ‘improving conditions for ‘Generation Rent’, due to a growing gap in supply and demand for private rented sector properties, forcing rent prices to rise.

Architect Peter Barber, who designed the award-winning 97-home (50% affordable) scheme at Edgewood Mews in Finchley has criticised the Labour Party’s housing policy for being "not radical enough", labelling Labour Leader Keir Starmer’s concept of the ‘grey belt’ as "meaningless…an invention." He adds that delivering social housing at pace will not happen due to a "housebuilder hegemony" who "maintain high prices by the shortage of housing."

Labour urged to embrace densification of London suburbs

Founding Director of RCKa Architects Russell Curtis has said the next Government should look to "suburban densification" in London to reach housing targets. Curtis writes that Labour’s pledge to deliver 1.5m homes in five years is "headline-grabbing" but could benefit from expanding on lower densities in suburban London, particularly around rail and Tube links.

No change to council tax bands under Labour

Labour has ruled out reforming or reviewing council tax bands after several days of speculation. A council tax review was not included in the party’s manifesto, but Shadow Paymaster General Jon Ashworth has had to confirm that changing the banding was "not our [Labour’s] policy", to end speculation that the party were considering it. This speculation came as Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting stated Labour’s manifesto was not the "sum total" of its spending plans. It comes as Labour Leader Keir Starmer has ruled out raising capital gains tax on house sales.