Social Housing Weekly - 10 June 2024

A word from us

Here are some things the major parties have been talking about in the General Election campaign so far: national service, D-Day, pensions, prisons, and Diane Abbott.

Now here are some things they are not talking about:

1. Local authorities are spending up to half of their budgets on temporary accommodation, according to analysis by Generation Rent. Council funding might sound like a wonk's issue but what will the Great British Public think when their bins stop being collected? And what will happen to those in need of Temporary Accommodation when local government money runs out? 
   
2. According to statistics from Zoopla, rents for new lets have increased by 6.6% in the 12 months to April. The figures also showed that there are on average 15 people applying for each home for rent, up from an average of six before the pandemic. Both parties, in so far as they have actually talked about housing, have focused on 'increasing homeownership' but Britain's renters are not going to magic up a deposit in this overheated market whatever policies are pursued, so what ideas have they about making renting better?

You'd be forgiven for thinking that parties have all but forgotten about housing, although a few more details have been eking out over the last few days, particularly around unblocking the glacial planning process. In this edition, my fellow LCA Director Jay Allan has kindly set about setting out the Labour housing headlines for you.

Harriet Shone

LCA Director

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Policy watch

"On the side of the builders, not the blockers" - Labour housing announcements by Jay Allan, LCA Director

Last week we took a brief look at the Tories' equally brief suite of housing policies. Frankly, compared to this very light offering, even a modest agenda would appear exciting by comparison and Labour has provided just that... Headline announcements so far include an extension of Rishi Sunak's mortgage guarantee scheme, a pledge to hire more planning officers and a commitment to aesthetics which could have come straight from the Michael Gove playbook. Other policies which have been announced include offering local residents ‘first dibs’ on homes in new developments and giving local communities the power to purchase derelict sites and turn them into parks. Expect more to come out of this Thursday’s manifesto, which of course we will be dutifully covering.

To buy, or not to buy?

We have experienced Right to Buy and Help to Buy, now Labour has mooted its own contribution to the infinitive with the snappily-titled Freedom to Buy. Aimed at ensuring that first-time buyers are able to access low-deposit mortgages, the policy is an extension of the 2021 Tory policy, which has already been extended until July 2025 by Jeremy Hunt. Labour claims that making the scheme permanent will help 60,000 young people over five years to get a foot on the property ladder. 

Building beautiful

Those familiar with outgoing Housing Secretary Michael Gove's stance on beauty in architecture may be surprised to hear very similar sentiments expressed by his Labour counterpart, Angela Rayner. Promoting the vision of Edwardian-style mansion blocks and tree-lined streets of townhouses, Rayner stated that only ‘attractive homes’ will be delivered under a Labour government. Labour has been working with Create Streets to create mock-ups of what new homes could look like.

The need for speed

A number of policies announced so far are aimed at streamlining the planning process, for example by taxing foreign buyers to fund the hiring of new planning officers. Another key pro-development policy has involved reaching out to developers themselves, encouraging them to work with the party in ‘lock step’ to deliver 1.5m new homes over the next five years. While the intention is clear – and no doubt to the delight of the development community – we’re still waiting with bated breath what this will mean in practice.  Here’s hoping for more detail come Thursday. 

Housing in the headlines

Stamping out stamp duty

The Telegraph reports that the Conservatives are to pledge the abolition of stamp duty for first-time buyers of properties worth up to £425,000. Stamp duty rates for first-time buyers were increased temporarily by Liz Truss’s ‘mini-Budget’ in autumn 2022, up from £300,000, but this is set to end in March 2025. The change to tax policy is set to affect around 200,000 households each year. The Conservatives are also expected to pledge a further 2p cut to National Insurance if elected, as they seek to make tax policy a key ‘dividing line’ between the two main parties.

Lib Dems pledge end to Section 21 evictions

The Liberal Democrats have published their election manifesto ‘A Fair Deal’, including pledges to deliver 380,000 homes in new garden cities and community-led developments, powers to end Right to Buy, plus abolition of residential leaseholds and Section 21 no-fault evictions. The latter will presumably come as something of a kick in the teeth to the Tories, who have spent the last Parliament trying and failing to enact just such a reform. The Lib Dem manifesto also pledges the replacement of business rates with a new Commercial Landowner Levy.

Social housing stock diminished by Right to Buy

Research by Shelter has shown that more than 260,000 social homes have been sold or demolished since 2013, driven by Right to Buy. In 2022-23 alone, over 11,000 social homes were lost from the sector with the biggest losses occurring in Birmingham, Leicester, Barnet and Leeds.

Election Watch

Polls, polls and more polls

Those of you who have not been living under a rock since late 2022 will be familiar with the headlines by now. Nonetheless, every new poll serves to underline the same reality: the Tories are likely in for a pasting. The first MRP analysis of the General Election campaign has suggested that the Conservatives could be reduced to just 66 seats, with Labour securing a landslide 476 seats and the Lib Dems on 59. Meanwhile, YouGov’s first MRP projection of the General Election campaign has shown that Labour is on track to beat its 1997 result. It shows Labour winning 422 seats, the Conservatives on 140 and the Lib Dems with 48. The projection shows 12 current ministers losing their seats.

As if the headline results weren't bad enough, there is more bad news for Rishi Sunak when pollsters examine the details of policies. Polling by Savanta has shown that Labour is leading the Conservatives by a record 17 points among UK businesses. 49% of the 1,000 business leaders polled said that Labour would be better for business. Lord Ashcroft Polls has surveyed voters on the policies that have been announced so far in the General Election campaign, including national service, the quadruple lock on pensions and votes at 16. They have also asked respondents about their views on the two main party leaders, with Keir Starmer ahead on all fronts.

Manifestos week

A bit like London buses, it feels like we have been waiting two weeks for party manifestos and then four come along at once. Today, the Liberal Democrats have published their own programme for government, setting out ambitious housebuilding targets, along with promises to introduce a proportional representation voting system and abolish business rates. Tomorrow is the turn of the Conservative Party, when we hope to learn more detail of the party's housing policy, followed by the Green Party on Wednesday and Labour on Thursday.

Rishi Sunak has vowed to ‘fight on’ as Prime Minister following a weekend of major criticism over his decision to miss part of the D-Day commemorations in Normandy. Sunak added that he is ‘not really interested’ in the electoral threat posed by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, after former Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s suggestion that the Conservatives should ‘unite the right’ by engaging with Farage’s party.