Looking ahead to Conservative Party Conference

The scale of the Conservative loss is staggering, with the party suffering its worst-ever defeat in its 190-year history. This seismic shift which saw Labour win one of the largest majorities in British history has left the Conservative Party in disarray, with the political spotlight now firmly focused on the new Labour Government.

The contrast between the two major parties’ conferences couldn’t be starker. While Labour’s business day tickets sold out within hours, with businesses keen to engage with the new Labour Government, the Conservatives have been struggling to sell theirs. Lobbyists, who traditionally flock to conference will be noticeably absent from the Conservative one. Additionally, the media’s lower level of interest in the Conservative conference is worth noting. With the media focus now on a Labour Government and the Conservatives focused on an internal battle, the party may find it challenging to adjust to their new position of diminished importance.

This lack of engagement with the Conservatives is a telling sign of the party’s current standing. The political momentum has shifted dramatically, with many already seeming to have forgotten Rishi Sunak’s tenure as Prime Minister. He is not even set to speak to the conference. Instead, all eyes are on the Labour Party and its plans over the next parliament.

For the Conservatives, this year’s conference will be primarily focused on internal party matters, specifically the race to elect a new leader. Four contenders are battling it out for the top spot: Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, James Cleverly, and Tom Tugendhat. Each will be outlining their vision for the future of the Conservative Party, attempting to persuade both MPs and party members that they are the right choice to lead the party out of the wilderness.

The leadership contest will dominate the conference agenda, with policy discussions taking a back seat. The direction the party will take in terms of policy is inextricably linked to who emerges victorious from this leadership battle.

Certain key issues are expected to feature prominently in the leadership campaign. Immigration and tax and spend stand out as the most pressing concerns, particularly in the light of the success of the Reform Party in the recent election. All candidates are likely to adopt a tough stance on immigration in an attempt to win back voters who defected to Reform. However, it’s important to recognise that the discussions among the final four candidates must be viewed in the context of the leadership contest as what they say to win the contest may differ significantly to what the eventual winner will say to win a general election.

While I don’t expect the built environment to feature prominently in the leadership contest, there is an opportunity for the new leader to elevate it as a key topic for debate once selected. It is important to remember that, despite the clear distinctions between Labour and Conservative policies on planning reform and the built environment at the recent election, the Conservatives proposed initiatives that they can use to hold the Government to account. Notably, they pledged to build 1.6 million homes over the parliament – 100,000 more than Labour’s pledge of 1.5 million – and to allocate all savings from cancelling the northern leg of HS2 towards improving transport infrastructure across the country. For this to resonate, the new leader will need to unite the party, especially given past challenges, such as Rishi Sunak’s abandonment of compulsory housebuilding targets in 2022 to appease a potential rebellion of up to 100 Conservative MPs. With housing identified as a top concern for 22% of the British public, and six in ten supporting new housebuilding, the Conservatives must embrace building initiatives.

The current mood within the Conservative Party may be sombre but there is potential for a strong comeback. Once a new leader is elected and the party can unite behind them, the Conservatives can become an effective opposition to the new Labour Government. Despite recent victory, the Prime Minister’s honeymoon period is over. His approval rating has dropped below that of Rishi Sunak’s, with a net rating of -26%. This highlights the real opportunity for the Conservatives to mount a robust opposition.

The leadership contest will be crucial in determining the party’s future direction. Conservative MPs will first narrow the field to two final candidates. The final two contenders will then face the party membership in a decisive vote, with the result of the ballot being revealed on November 2^nd. Only after this internal race is settled can we get a clear picture of what the Conservative Party will stand for in the coming parliament, especially in light of what could be a crucial budget for the Labour Government just two days earlier.

As the conference unfolds this weekend, it’s important to remember that this is a necessary period of introspection and rebuilding for the Conservatives. While they may be out of the spotlight for now, the coming weeks and months will be critical in shaping how effectively the Conservatives can fulfil the vital role of opposition for years to come. Looking ahead to 2025, the Conservative conference will be very different and hopefully more upbeat with a new leader and likely increased interested from lobbyists and the media.